Long Range Forecast: ‘The Post,’ ‘Proud Mary,’ ‘Paddington 2,’ ‘The Commuter, & ‘Condorito’

This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes a host of releases scheduled for Martin Luther King Jr. Weekend in January. Our initial analyses and forecasts:

PROS:

  • The Post will open in limited release in December as part of what is expected to be a strong award season candidacy. The powerhouse trio of director Steven Spielberg with stars Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks in a true journalistic drama about the Pentagon Papers cover-up is seemingly poised to become a ‘movie of the moment’ in light of current real world events.
  • Proud Mary will aim to leverage Taraji P. Henson’s considerable fan base into a solid performance over MLK weekend in a film that may also appeal to fans of female actioners like Atomic Blonde and Lucy.
  • Paddington 2 follows on the heels of 2015’s successful live action adaptation and has already garnered strong early reviews and an excellent debut in the United Kingdom. As 2018’s first major animated release — and the first since Ferdinand one month earlier — it should have room for another solid U.S. run.
  • The Commuter reunites Liam Neeson with director Jaume Collet-Serra after their success with Non-Stop and Unknown. The director is also fresh off last year’s The Shallows as his resume continues to build a string of mid-range hits driven by word of mouth.
  • Condorito: La Pelicula will hope to appeal to Latino families with young children over the extended holiday weekend.

CONS:

  • For all its prestige characteristics, The Post will still need to convince audiences that a journalistic drama is must-see material on the big screen after the modest box office run of 2015’s Best Picture winner, Spotlight. Some audience aversion to political divisiveness in the world today could also spillover into impacting broader moviegoer interests toward the film.
  • Proud Mary‘s early social media activity is mixed, though that isn’t surprising for a title whose marketing has barely begun. The modest run of Atomic Blonde also gives us pause on predicting an even larger breakout here for now.
  • In general, animated sequels expand upon their predecessors’ runs almost as often as the opposite occurs. If films like Ferdinand and Coco are still playing strongly come January, they could limit demand for Paddington 2.
  • Initial social media trends for The Commuter are well below past Neeson-led actioners, falling more in line with Jackie Chan’s The Foreigner at the same point before release. Meanwhile, competition for the adult audience will be stiff against The Post and other holiday holdovers.
  • Condorito hails from Lionsgate, whose animated projects have unfortunately yielded underwhelming results at the box office to date (see Rock DogThe Wild Life, and Norm of the North).

The 8-Week Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
11/22/2017 Coco $60,000,000 $270,000,000 4,000 Disney
11/22/2017 The Man Who Invented Christmas n/a n/a n/a Bleecker Street
11/22/2017 Roman J. Israel n/a n/a 1,500 Sony / Columbia
12/8/2017 The Disaster Artist n/a n/a A24
12/8/2017 Just Getting Started $8,000,000 $36,000,000 Broad Green Pictures
12/15/2017 Ferdinand $20,000,000 $150,000,000 Fox
12/15/2017 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $215,000,000 $742,000,000 Disney
12/20/2017 The Greatest Showman on Earth $11,000,000 $75,000,000 Fox
12/20/2017 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $22,000,000 $175,000,000 Sony / Columbia
12/22/2017 All the Money in the World n/a n/a TriStar
12/22/2017 Downsizing $10,000,000 $59,000,000 Paramount
12/22/2017 Pitch Perfect 3 $40,000,000 $136,000,000 Universal
12/22/2017 Father Figures $7,000,000 $41,000,000 Warner Bros.
12/29/2017 (no films scheduled currently)
1/5/2018 Insidious: The Last Key $19,500,000 $34,500,000 Universal
1/5/2018 Molly’s Game $6,000,000 $21,000,000 STXfilms
1/12/2018 The Commuter $12,000,000 NEW $31,000,000 NEW Lionsgate
1/12/2018 Condorito: La Pelicula $5,000,000 NEW $12,500,000 NEW Lionsgate
1/12/2018 Paddington 2 $19,000,000 NEW $70,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
1/12/2018 Proud Mary $17,000,000 NEW $55,000,000 NEW Sony / Screen Gems
1/12/2018 The Post (expansion) $20,000,000 NEW $90,000,000 NEW Fox
Shawn Robbins

5 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Brad November 17, 2017

    I think 215 is too low for Star Wars. I think it should match what TFA did two years ago. It also has 6pm previews on Thursday this time around with many of those tickets selling for $30 on average. I also have a feeling that if it is well received, it will hit 1 billion in the US alone for the first time ever.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Stevenson November 21, 2017

      Pre sales are not even close right now to TFA at the same. And excitement/anticipation isn’t anywhere near it either. I just don’t see how it grosses more than TFA.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        o1nk November 29, 2017

        By all accounts on tracking, TLJ Is on for 200-220. And as most forecasts, except IT, everything has been below these tracking projections on release. Also factor in that it’s the middle movie in a trilogy and they never do as well at the box office.
        Slightly above Rogue One at 200 I would say.

        Reply
  2. Avatar
    DangerS November 17, 2017

    Jumanji is way too high.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Pppppppppppppp November 17, 2017

    Disaster artist est. plz?

    Reply

Leave reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *