Long Range Forecast: ‘Daddy’s Home 2’ & ‘Murder on the Orient Express’

This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes two new wide releases slated to open on Friday, November 10: Daddy’s Home 2 and Kenneth Branagh’s adaptation of Murder on the Orient Express. Our initial analysis:

PROS:

  • Daddy’s Home 2 (Paramount) is well-positioned to benefit from holiday season family crowds with its current release date. The return of Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg, plus the additions of Mel Gibson and John Lithgow, could also bring back those who enjoyed the original surprise hit comedy.
  • Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) boasts an impressive ensemble cast and intriguing early marketing that could solidify this as a viable counter-programming option for adult audiences heading into the holidays.

CONS:

  • Daddy’s Home 2 will need to buck the trend of comedic sequels, which have performed significantly below their original predecessors in recent years (see Zoolander 2Horrible Bosses 2Dumb and Dumber ToTed 2, etc.). Opening in between two major superhero films and Pixar’s Coco two weeks later could additionally cut into the target family audience.
  • We’d like to see more social media activity from Murder on the Orient Express in the coming weeks, but its modest signs of growth so far aren’t necessarily a bad sign given the target older audience. The film’s primary concern could be facing off against a slew of award season contenders throughout November and December if many of them prove to be mainstream friendly.

This Week’s Changes and Other Notes

  • Next week’s openers still promise to bring a surge of excellent counter-programming. Kingsman: The Golden Circle continues to track highly on the heels of strong marketing and goodwill. LEGO Ninjago should benefit from the lack of family options since summer, but initial buzz is notably lower than LEGO Batman and LEGO Movie, so we’re slightly lowering expectations for opening weekend.
  • Early reviews are very encouraging for American Made, with social media growth approaching the pre-release levels of last year’s The Accountant. While the film is tracking upward, we remain a bit conservative given the wealth of competition for male audiences in late September/early October.
  • STXfilms has shifted the release date for A Bad Moms Christmas from Friday, November 3 to Wednesday, November 1. Our three-day (FSS) opening forecast has been adjusted below.

The Long Range Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
9/22/2017 Friend Request n/a n/a 3,000 Entertainment Studios
9/22/2017 Kingsman: The Golden Circle $46,000,000 10% $118,000,000 10% 3,900 Fox
9/22/2017 The LEGO Ninjago Movie $41,000,000 -4% $146,600,000 4,000 Warner Bros.
9/29/2017 American Made $16,000,000 7% $54,000,000 7% 3,000 Universal
9/29/2017 Flatliners (2017) $12,000,000 $29,000,000 3,000 Sony / Screen Gems
9/29/2017 A Question of Faith n/a n/a n/a Pure Flix
9/29/2017 Til Death Do Us Part n/a NEW n/a NEW n/a Novus
10/6/2017 Blade Runner 2049 $44,000,000 $115,000,000 Warner Bros.
10/6/2017 The Mountain Between Us $8,000,000 $25,000,000 Fox
10/6/2017 My Little Pony (2017) $7,500,000 $21,500,000 Lionsgate
10/13/2017 The Foreigner $10,000,000 $27,700,000 STXfilms
10/13/2017 Happy Death Day $20,000,000 $40,000,000 Universal / Blumhouse
10/13/2017 Marshall $12,000,000 $39,000,000 Open Road
10/13/2017 Professor Marston & the Wonder Woman n/a NEW n/a NEW Annapurna Pictures
10/20/2017 Geostorm $12,000,000 $27,800,000 Warner Bros.
10/20/2017 Only the Brave $16,000,000 $55,000,000 Sony / Columbia
10/20/2017 Same Kind of Different As Me $4,500,000 $12,000,000 Pure Flix
10/20/2017 The Snowman $11,000,000 $31,000,000 Universal
10/20/2017 Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween $23,500,000 $59,300,000 Lionsgate
10/27/2017 All I See Is You n/a n/a Open Road
10/27/2017 Jigsaw $10,000,000 $21,600,000 Lionsgate
10/27/2017 Suburbicon $14,000,000 $45,000,000 Paramount
10/27/2017 Thank You for Your Service $5,000,000 $17,500,000 Universal
11/1/2017 A Bad Moms Christmas $22,000,000 -27% $85,000,000 STXfilms
11/3/2017 Thor: Ragnarok $100,000,000 $250,000,000 Disney
11/10/2017 Daddy’s Home 2 $30,000,000 NEW $95,000,000 NEW Paramount
11/10/2017 Murder on the Orient Express $23,500,000 NEW $84,600,000 NEW Fox

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

23 Comments

  1. Avatar
    DangerS September 15, 2017

    My predictions:
    Kingsman will hit $50M + opening weekend and $125-130M total. Blade Runner will open at $50-55M and finish at around $150-160M. Thor: Ragnarok will open with $115-120M and finish at $300-320M.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Matt D. September 15, 2017

    Kingsman will hopefully open to $55 M and finish around $140 M. Blade Runner 2049 should hopefully open to $50 M and finish around again $140-150 M of the rest of October is dissamal. Thor: Ragnorok should open to $105 M and finish around $250-275 M. Daddy’s Home 2 is a wild card for me. Because while the first one overperformed it got negative reviews. Also this film is not in the Christmas Day spot the first one was in. So Hopefully the film opens to $30 M OW and finishes around $100-105 M. Again those are my hopes, I could also see it be a failure box office wise which I hope doesn’t happen.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Pia September 15, 2017

    Still low on the American Made with 90% + on Rotten Tomatoes and Tom Cruise presiding over the affair it can easily open to $25 Million and up and gross $85 Million.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Vicky Martino September 15, 2017

      Quite possible with its main counter programming competition Mother and American Assassin tanking. American Assassin has outright bad reviews and Mother has bad audience reviews on Rotten Tomatoes <<45% audience score that's horrible.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Jacen September 15, 2017

        Re: mother!’s audience score… that’s unfortunate but not surprising. The film was marketed as a horror/mystery/thriller (the only choice available to the studio, now that I’ve seen it), but it’s not going to connect to audiences seeking that. Instead, it continues Aronofsky’s previous foray into thematic interpretation of Biblical ideas (Noah). It’s like Stephen King at his darkest decided to channel Jonathan Swift in a satire of the Bible and its effect on civilization (emphasizing the 20th Century) as well as riffing on the idea of artists and their relationship with fame/audiences. So the entire film is symbolic, and the final act is particularly insane. People will either understand it or reject it, with the majority falling into the latter camp.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Pia September 15, 2017

          I also saw that garbage called “Mother”, if that hack Aronofsky wants to make a movie on his frustrations and rants may be he should use his own money and release it for free or in film schools and not charge people for their hard earned dollars by lying in the marketing . He is not a genius, he is a lying hack job.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          Pia September 15, 2017

          Generally i come out of a movie having a good time or a bad time, but for the 1st time i came out of a movie feeling offended and robbed. I sincerely hope that hack Aronofsky never gets to make a movie again using a studios money, if he wants to make this type of garbage again he should put his own money where his mouth and twisted psycho mind is. I was never so triggered seeing a movie in my life.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            A.A ROi September 17, 2017

            Looks like Aronofsky achieve his goal with you then. Treasure those moments of offense. Films rarely offend people these days, as studios are to eager in their preference to offer up bland soup.

    • Avatar
      Vicky Martino September 15, 2017

      Flatliners looks on point to flatline at the box office with no buss, good reviews or audience interest what so ever. I can see American Made doing $25-27 Million OW with those amazing reviews, i mean with Tom Cruise and those good reviews the studio has a winner on its hands.

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    Anu September 15, 2017

    I Can see “American Made” opening to $25 Million+ with such a good reviews and the most important issue is it deals with an important American historical political scandal. So it might connect with the vastly old audience who knew about it and potentially young as well who didn’t but do want to know about it now

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Anu September 15, 2017

      The 80’s Iran-Contra Affair.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Vicky September 15, 2017

        It looks like Mother is going to tank big time providing “AMERICAN MADE” with no competition in the Drama segment for September/October. It looks like the only good drama for this and next month so it may end up doing $30 Million in the OW. Really excited to see that movie.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      eugene lee September 20, 2017

      but tom cruise. SMH

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    Vicky September 16, 2017

    Audience passed the death sentence on the MOTHER with “F” Cinemascore. Now its going to tank like a rock. Looks like AMERICAN MADE is the only good drama film for September with 90%+ on RT with great Audience Approval Ratings.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Maxx September 17, 2017

    Thor: Ragnarok will do around $110M-$120M, and will obviously hold up in and stay #1 in week two against Daddy’s Home. Definitely looking at $250M-$300M depending on how Justice League performs critically. Lego Ninja will do significantly less. Kingsman will do slightly better.

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    Marina September 18, 2017

    Kingsman #1

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    Stevenson September 18, 2017

    Geostorm opening weekend seems really low, no?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen September 18, 2017

      The movie looks enjoyably cheesy, and maybe it will connect in the way the … Has Fallen films have, but I suspect it will be more of a video rental for people. Like that space prison movie that Guy Pierce and Maggie from Lost were in a decade ago.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      eugene September 20, 2017

      it isnt a franchise and it has no recognizable famous people. Nowadays movies like that fail. Closest I can think of Dunkirk, but it was the director Christopher Nolan that had a fan base.

      Reply
  9. Avatar
    That Guy BoxOffice.com Keeps Blocking September 19, 2017

    While LEGO NINJAGO will certainly benefit from the lack of significant family fare since DESPICABLE ME 3 (given lackluster business from EMOJI MOVIE and THE NUT JOB 2), it’s hard to see this film pulling off comparable figures to LEGO BATMAN. That film parlayed very positive reviews and the legacy of the original LEGO MOVIE (which featured the title character of LEGO BATMAN very prominently) into what ended up still being a relative downturn at the box office, in spite of a lack of competition. NINJAGO has no connections to LEGO MOVIE apart from the animation format, its trailers haven’t spurred much attention (nor did the crummy short attached to STORKS) and it has received no critical reviews to date. I’m struggling to see NINJAGO opening well above $30 million, or finishing above $90-95 million.

    Much as I wasn’t huge on the first film, DADDY’S HOME 2 looks like a box office winner. As overplayed as it is, that trailer is one of the most crowdpleasing I’ve seen in a long time, and the casting of the grandparents is impeccable, and given how critic-proof the first film was I can’t imagine this one wouldn’t be as well. Given that it will be the first four-quadrant comedy in quite some time (stuff like A BAD MOMS CHRISTMAS and BOO 2! A MADEA HALLOWEEN are obviously playing to specific demos) we could see a very big opening ($40-45 million?) and unless it collapses against COCO, it should hang on very well through the Thanksgiving/pre-Christmas season. A final total of $140 million wouldn’t be surprising – and neither would a total surpassing the first film’s $150 million either.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      eugene September 20, 2017

      yeah, whoever green lighted Lego Ninjago should be fired. Lego can literally “build” on any franchise like they did with Batman. WB owns Ips such as looney tunes, DC comics, Hanna Barbara etc. Or they can licence things like Back to the future, ghost busters, etc if needed. Ninjago is the dumbest choice they could have gone with.

      Reply
  10. Avatar
    Anusha September 20, 2017

    Still low on “AMERICAN MADE” with Kingsman, American Assassin and Mother tanking critically and commercially at the Box office AMERICAN MADE has no critical competition with 90% on RT, it can easily open to $25+ Million,

    Reply
    • Avatar
      That Guy BoxOffice.com Keeps Blocking September 20, 2017

      What guarantee do you have that KINGSMAN will tank commercially? A score in the 50-60% range on RT likely won’t be enough to keep fans away, particularly given how on-point the marketing has been. (Remember, the original film’s score was only 72%.) Considering comparable titles like JASON BOURNE and THE HITMAN’S BODYGUARD succeeded in spite of mediocre reviews, I think you’re being a little quick to pronounce doom on KINGSMAN 2.

      That said, if *audience* reception to KINGSMAN 2 is poor, it could see a hefty second-weekend drop, which would definitely help AMERICAN MADE. At present, however, I’m inclined to believe the movies will simply coexist alongside each other, and I’d project an opening in the lower $20 million range for AMERICAN MADE.

      Reply

Leave reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *