Long Range Forecast: ‘The Dark Tower’

This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast takes a look at the first weekend of August, particularly the long-gestating big screen adaptation of Stephen King’s The Dark Tower. August 4 is also slated to see the release of Detroit and Kidnap, as well as the nationwide expansion of An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power.

The Dark Tower
Sony / Columbia

PROS:

  • One of Stephen King’s most popular properties, the source material has had fans eagerly awaiting a big screen adaptation for years.
  • Casting popular leading men Idris Elba and Matthew McConaughey as the story’s two iconic characters adds a boost of star power.
  • Social media buzz has been solid thus far, particularly since the first trailer released.
  • With what looks to be a lukewarm slate of August releases this year, Dark Tower should have room to breathe and take advantage of word of mouth going into Labor Day weekend.

CONS:

  • Despite considerable excitement among King fans, the book series doesn’t have quite the large, rabid fan base as past blockbuster adaptations like The Hunger GamesHarry Potter, etc.
  • Reactions to the trailer have been mostly encouraging, but somewhat muted compared to what is typical or needed of a film that aims to start a new franchise.
  • The fact remains that July’s market is shaping up to be very busy, and that could translate to some level of moviegoer burnout by the time August rolls around. Strong word of mouth and overseas performances will likely be key to ensuring future sequels for the series.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • All Eyez on Me continues to track well ahead of next week’s debut, with particularly encouraging signs across social media.
  • Given competition against Wonder WomanRough Night may have a tougher path to breakout numbers than previously expected.
  • As noted, August 4 will also see the wide release of Detroit and Kidnap. Given their distributors’ limited history of wide releases, forecasts will be offered at a later date.
  • Likewise, An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power is slated to expand on August 4, but we’re holding off on projections until its release strategy is confirmed closer to release.

Check out our complete 8-week wide release forecast in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
6/16/2017 47 Meters Down n/a n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
6/16/2017 All Eyez On Me $20,000,000 11% $54,000,000 10% 2,400 Lionsgate / Summit
6/16/2017 Cars 3 $56,000,000 $206,000,000 3,900 Disney / Pixar
6/16/2017 Rough Night $22,000,000 -12% $65,000,000 -19% 3,000 Sony
6/21/2017 Transformers: The Last Knight $70,000,000 $187,000,000 4,200 Paramount
6/28/2017 Baby Driver $15,000,000 $60,000,000 20% Sony / TriStar
6/30/2017 Despicable Me 3 $75,000,000 $270,000,000 Universal / Illumination
6/30/2017 The House (2017) $26,000,000 $95,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
7/7/2017 Spider-Man: Homecoming $135,000,000 $325,000,000 Sony / Columbia
7/14/2017 The Big Sick n/a n/a Lionsgate
7/14/2017 War for the Planet of the Apes $54,000,000 $150,000,000 Fox
7/14/2017 Wish Upon $11,000,000 $25,500,000 Broad Green Pictures
7/21/2017 Dunkirk $60,000,000 $240,000,000 Warner Bros.
7/21/2017 Girls Trip $17,000,000 $60,000,000 Universal
7/21/2017 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $24,000,000 $70,000,000 STX Entertainment
7/28/2017 Atomic Blonde $27,500,000 $82,500,000 Focus Features
7/28/2017 The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself $27,000,000 $95,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 The Dark Tower $42,000,000 NEW $107,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 Detroit n/a NEW n/a NEW Annapurna Pictures
8/4/2017 An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power n/a NEW n/a NEW Paramount
8/4/2017 Kidnap n/a NEW n/a NEW Aviron

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

22 Comments

  1. Avatar
    dasfdas June 09, 2017

    “Rough Night” has had horrible marketing. The movie doesn’t look good to begin with, but considering it’s a big summer comedy releasing in a week, the studio really dropped the ball on advertising. It’s looking like a bomb.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin June 09, 2017

      I can safely say that every raunchy comedy this year has underperformed (though Snatched still did okay), leaving Rough Night and The House to possibly open to less than $20 million. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if it happened.
      Another problem I see is Baby Driver getting a 4x multiplier after its opening, which is nearly impossible for movies like it. I think that an $18 million opening (a plausible amount) would lead to $60 million domestically.
      Otherwise, some of the same problems exist from last week’s forecast (my forecasts will be in parenthesis): Dunkirk is a little too large ($55 million), War for the Planet of the Apes is too low ($70 million), Spider-Man is a bit too high ($120 – 125 million with possible underperformance towards $110 million), and The Emoji Movie is too high ($15 – 20 million).
      Also, Atomic Blonde is too high; however, I heard that a major studio (Universal) is distributing it. I’ve updated my forecast from last week to about $20 – 22 million at max.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Paul June 10, 2017

        Baby driver is opening on wednesday, it will be at 20M+ at the end of the first weekend. 4× multiplier very plausible. The film has a current scores of 100% on RT (23 reviews)

        Reply
    • Avatar
      Brodie Marschall June 09, 2017

      Yeah, I agree. Making those Venom And Spin off movies are starting to hurt their relationship with Marvel. IT’s time Marvel gets the full rights back because Dave Bautista speculated that it will happen. If This happens before Homecoming’s release, Then Disney will make more Spider-Man Merchandise than ever since he wasn’t highlighted like before, Get the rights to Spectacular Spider-Man and distribute Homecoming instead of Sony. If Disney and Bautista can undo A labyrinthine HollyWood Spider-Man movie rights deal, Then They can also Get the theme park rights from Universal, Get Marvel AT Disney World And Bautista can run for public office. But I’m not sure how he of all people knows about all this stuff. Maybe he’s smart enough to know how Marvel works more than we do and to read between the lines and it’s possible he heard talks on the Infinity War set or Gunn is privy to that kind of info and Dave heard it from him. Besides, He’s probably already in the negotiations with Sony And Feige. I can’t tell you when, But it’s only a matter of time before Marvel/Disney acquires the full rights considering Sony’s growing condition and Spider-Man’s Ever growing presence in the MCU. I would assume that he’s wrong, But there’s always a chance that the past couple of months have resulted in discussions between Marvel and Sony that will change how Spider-Man is handled on the big screen after this partnership expires. Maybe we’ll hear more about this closer to Homecoming’s release.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Jonathan June 10, 2017

        Never gonna happen. Spidey is too valuable an asset for Sony to let go. And BTW, what does Dave Bautista know about the Spider-Man deal. All he did was state what he thought might happen, I doubt he even had any clue about what’s going on between the two studio executives. Better dream on than wait for the impossible.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      Brodie Marschall June 09, 2017

      And with companies like Sony taking more bombs like this, I feel like if The aT&T and WB merger goes through because the CEOS are sure it will close by the end of the year, Companies will go on a shopping spree with Disney buying Sony, Paramount, Netflix and Nickelodeon. Because they all have problems of their own right now. And Add Danny Phantom, Spongebob Squarepants, Fairly Oddparents, Jimmy Neutron, Avatar: The last Airbender, invader Zim, Orange is the New Black, House of Cards, Marco Polo, A Series of Unfortunate, Stranger Things, 13 Reasons Why, Mission Impossible, G.I Joe, Transformers, Terminator, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Star Trek, Ratchet and Clank, Jak and Daxter, Sly Cooper, Ghostbusters, Men in Black, Jump Street, Underworld, Resident Evil and (If Sony manages to extend their deal with MGM) James bond to their long list of franchises to develop on movies, TV shows and Streaming and help them make great movies and TV shows again, Get their franchises back on track just list AT&T could do with WB’s, Save these companies from eventual bankruptcy and reach new box office records like never before, Hitting $15 Billion.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    J June 09, 2017

    I just read the Dark tower book, and the movie looks nothing like it. I want it to succeed, but I predict a 30-35 million opening weekend and 100 million domestic total.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Jay June 09, 2017

    There’s no chance The House will open under 20m with how consistent Will Ferrell is, and how marketable the concept is
    His under 20m openings:
    June 2009: Land of the Lost- 18m
    Feb 2008: Semi-Pro- 15m
    Nov 2006: Stranger Than Fiction- 13m
    Feb 2003: Old School- 17m
    Sept 2001: Zoolander- 15m

    Rough Night will surely have better reviews than Snatched and Baywatch, but Sony dropped the ball– if this was Universal or WB, 30m OW would be on the table, but I’d say somewhere between 20m-25m is more likely

    Girls Trip will be the big summer breakout in July, and 17m is too low for it

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin June 09, 2017

      In order for The House to have better reviews than Snatched, it needs a 36% or greater on Rotten Tomatoes, which is only 40% probable at best. The trailers make the movie seem like typical raunchy comedy fare, and I think I see the ending a mile out. At least it’s 88 minutes long, right?

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Austin June 09, 2017

        (adding to previous comment): Rough Night is another raunchy comedy that looks more like typical genre fare in the same way as The House. Also, despite the premise, the movie, based on the trailers, doesn’t seem to be that funny. It could do better than The House in multiple aspects, but otherwise, it would be a bit difficult for even that movie to beat Snatched in terms of reviews. When it comes down to raunchy comedies, they haven’t done well not just because of the reviews, but also because the same raunchy humoris regurgitated at audiences while the messages are usually last minute; the latter could ruin Rough Night’s chances of reaching over $20 million because it’s barely differentiating itself from other movies of the same genre if at all.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Jay June 10, 2017

          I agree that it might not seem different since Sony is pushing it more of a “girls night out” movie instead of the stripper element in an attempts to make it more relatable ala Bad Moms, but I dont understand why you think it’s so hard for it to beat Snatched in reviews when even it’s such a low, disappointing bar and tons of drivel like Bad Moms, Office Christmas Party have higher ratings than it

          Even Girls Trip in July should have a pretty decent-sized opening!

          It was a good script with some very funny scenes, and the test screenings seem to have done well– Snatched had bad buzz, Schumer backlash, and was salvaged by the Mother’s Day bump

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Jay June 10, 2017

        Dude, what are you rambling about– are you talking about The House or Rough Night because you seem to have your facts messed up

        How is it only 40% probable! Where did you base that math from because it sounds like you’re just being subjective and not objective regarding how you find the trailers

        Rough Night has done well at screenings, and tested well, so I’d be surprised if the RT score was that low– I’d say somewhere in the 60s or low 70s is more likely

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Austin June 11, 2017

          Screenings mean absolutely nothing unless you can point to critics who tweeted about the screening. Why? Because 97% of the time, the studios get positive feedback from the audience there compared to 35% or less of those positive feedbacks that translate to postive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Why? Because the audience that shows up to screenings either is enthusiastic about watching that particular movie or movies of that genre or is there because of the talent in front of the camera. The audience consists of people that the studios KNOW will like their movie. Don’t trust the screening unless you can point to a couple of atypical patterns like critics tweeting about it, who are under embargo until a specified date.
          Sure, raunchy comedies like Neighbors 2, Bad Moms, and Why Him got better reviews than Snatched, and Office Christmas Party earned marginally better reviews than Snatched, but look at the other ones in that frame that sank lower: Mike and Dave, Bad Santa 2, Chips, Fist Fight, and Baywatch. And to that end, name me the only movie mentioned thus far that got a 60% or higher on Rotten Tomatoes. In fact, at this time, a movie in the footsteps of Bad Moms would earn worse reviews as the concept is now nothing new. And to that end, Bad Moms had more intelligence and a bit more humor than what the trailer for Rough Night offered. That’s why I say 40% probable. While Snatched (36%) is a low bar, it’s a higher bar when it comes to raunchy comedies, something that Rough Night is aspiring to be successful at (and most likely failing in the process). Until the ratings prove me wrong, I’m standing by my predictions about both The House and Rough Night.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Jay June 13, 2017

            Do you sincerely have any idea what you’re talking about or do you just pick up your keyboard and buttonsmash– why else do films have more editing and reshoots after test screenings if the studio knew the film would be loved

            It had multiple test screenings months ago, screened for general audiences last month, and had the critic premiere last night (search twitter, you’ll see some critics mention it)

            You’re here saying a movie offered more intelligence and humor than a 2 minute trailer (Bad Moms + Rough Night have nothing in common other than aiming for female demographic)– are you delusional

            Please, refrain from speaking on subjects you know very little about, so you’re not too humiliated when The House makes more than 50m

          • Avatar
            Austin June 13, 2017

            Study your multipliers. Rough Night doesn’t need $20 million opening weekend and neither does The House in order to reach a $50 million domestic total; they only need $17-18 million at minimum. That’s more attainable than a $20 million opening weekend for either of these films! So the answer is no, I won’t be humiliated when either of those films cross $50 million; if anything, I’d barely be shocked!
            Also, I followed box office trends and predictions for six years already, and if there’s anything I learned to acknowledge during those years, it’d be that everything we say now until Monday afternoon (when actual totals are announced) is all THEORETICAL! We can’t prove we’re right, we can only defend our point using trends and observations. So accept that we both have our reasons to believe that what we are saying is, at least to us, correct and that we are only agreeing to disagree. I cannot convince you otherwise, and I acknowledge that. We’ll only know for sure at a later time; time will tell the tale. I am prepared to be wrong, as any good forecaster should.

        • Avatar
          Austin June 12, 2017

          Also, unlike Bad Moms, Rough Night has an unrelenting competitor: Wonder Woman. It attracts the female audience, and has a second weekend drop of just 45% (typical drops for movies like it is 55-65%)! Even if Rough Night pulled off having higher reviews than Snatched (I think it barely even has a chance to beat Bad Moms in terms of reviews and box office), it has a huge possibility of missing $20 million. Even if it passes $20 million on its opening weekend, it won’t be by much and it will suffer a deep drop (59%) on its second weekend. By the way, did you know that Baywatch attracted quite a bit of the female audience already?

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Jay June 13, 2017

            There’s no chance it would drop 59% 2nd weekend, you’re completely illogical if you believe that

  4. Avatar
    BDTrooper June 10, 2017

    With comedies not doing too well so far this year, one or two are probably ready to break out. The House and Rough Night may be the ones. Rough Night looks to be less dark, and more comedic, unlike the similar premise looking Very Bad Things from, wow, almost twenty years ago. Can’t believe it’s been that long. With a big star in Scarlett and a supporting cast of familiar TV and film actresses, it could do pretty well. And never count out Will Ferrell and Amy Poehler. Again, SNL is leading the way when it comes to serving as a breeding ground for future film stars.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    taylor June 10, 2017

    According to BoxOfficeMojo.com, 47 Meters Down opens to 3,500 theaters next week. So a prediction maybe?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin June 11, 2017

      Perhaps 47 Meters Down may be a sleeper hit akin to last year’s The Shallows, except that I’m not sure if a big-name studio is distributing this.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Eeyore June 12, 2017

        Nope, Entertainment Studios is doing this one, but only has done ONE other movie, with a gross of……. $10, 451 right now, according to BOM..

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Austin June 14, 2017

          There’s a fair amount of advertising for this movie in the realm of wide releases.
          Also, it appears that this movie could shoot for $8-10 million as reviews are at 75% currently. This leads me to my next point: in some way or another, a studio may just break out with a well-reviewed movie with advertising that at least makes the audience aware of the movie and become a major studio afterwards. This happened in August 2015 with STX and the movie, The Gift; now, STX has successful mainstream releases and is behind the release that could earn it a higher opening: Valerian (which will ultimately flop in the US). I don’t expect 47 Meters Down to be as successful as last year’s The Shallows, but it will attempt to attract some of that audience and maybe even the horror movie audience that has been starved of mainstream horror movies lately. It could break out; we’ll see what happens over the next three days.

          Reply

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