Long Range Forecast: ‘Despicable Me 3,’ ‘The House,’ & ‘Baby Driver’

This week’s Long Range Forecast is joined by three new wide releases slated to close out the month of June: Baby Driver (opening Wednesday, June 28), followed by Despicable Me 3 and The House (both opening Friday, June 30). Our initial analysis and forecast:

Despicable Me 3
Universal / Illumination

PROS:

  • The immense success of the first two films, plus Minions, has turned this series into the biggest animated franchise at the box office since the days of Shrek. Collectively, the three films have earned more than $955 million in North America and $2.67 billion globally.
  • Arguably the most popular aspect of the franchise has proven to be the aforementioned minion characters, whose cuteness and comedy hijinks have become a pillar of the films’ appeal to audiences — especially young kids.
  • Being distanced two weeks away from Pixar’s Cars 3 gives it enough breathing room to still generate a big opening without severely direct competition. As the last major animated release until The Emoji Movie in late July, this should again do very well with family audiences throughout the heart of summer.

CONS:

  • We’ve said it before, but it still applies: diminished returns are a historical guarantee for most franchises after a certain point. We expect that to be the case here, but in relative terms, this will still be one of the biggest box office hits of the summer and could again be a challenger for the $1 billion worldwide club.
  • This element won’t have a significant impact on very young audiences, but the release of Spider-Man: Homecoming in its second weekend could slightly cut into the young tween crowd that has served as a distant secondary audience for this series in the past.

The House
Warner Bros. / New Line

PROS:

  • The comedy pairing of Will Ferrell and Amy Poehler offers significant commercial potential. Poehler especially has seen her drawing power rise in recent years thanks to the success of TV’s Parks and Recreation and 2015’s Sisters. Ferrell is also fresh off one his biggest career hits in Daddy’s Home.
  • As an R-rated comedy appealing to both men and women (and parents), this could have broad appeal if word of mouth is healthy.

CONS:

  • Unfortunately, Ferrell’s drawing power isn’t quite as strong as it was ten years ago. That’s not necessarily a negative, but it does increase the need for positive reviews and/or word of mouth to help this film catch on with audiences.
  • Initial social media buzz is quite underwhelming, particularly on Facebook. Still, as an original comedy, that’s not necessarily something that can’t or won’t be improved upon once the film’s release is closer.

Baby Driver
Sony / Columbia

PROS:

  • Initial reviews are very encouraging as the film already sits at 100 percent from 22 critics’ entries on Rotten Tomatoes.
  • The ensemble cast of both veterans (Jamie Foxx, Kevin Spacey, Jon Hamm) and rising stars (Ansel Elgort and Lily James) could help drive interest (no pun intended) across a variety of moviegoers.
  • Director Edgar Wright has a loyal fan following thanks to his successful and beloved films Shaun of the DeadHot FuzzThe World’s End, and Scott Pilgrim vs. the World.
  • As one of the few original films releasing this summer, audiences may welcome the reprieve offered by a lite-hearted action/thriller that isn’t CG-reliant or part of a franchise. We think this has sleeper hit potential written all over it if marketing can back up the product.

CONS:

  • Initial social media buzz isn’t exactly on fire (notably on Facebook). Again, for an original film, there’s plenty of time for that to turn around.
  • Despite his loyal following, Wright’s resume is fairly limited in terms of box office grosses (although that’s not a bad thing considering the low budgets he’s typically worked with). In fairness, this could expand his potential audience. If there’s a director due for a breakout box office success, it’s him.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • Dead Awake has been added to the release slate for May 12, but we’re not currently offering public predictions due to the distributor’s limited history and an unconfirmed location count.
  • We continue to see mixed signals for King Arthur with the level of competition in the market as it tracks in line with The Great Wall and Gods of Egypt. Conversely, Snatched should benefit from Mother’s Day crowds next weekend and now appears likely to pull off an upset over King Arthur for a second place finish behind Guardians‘ second frame.
  • After initially stronger results last week, tracking for Alien: Covenant declined a few ticks this week with interest levels now slightly trailing those of Terminator: Genisys and Independence Day: Resurgence at the same point before release. In fairness, reviews still remain key to opening weekend buzz when the embargo lifts over the next few days.
  • Social media buzz for Everything, Everything is slowly increasing our projections. Initial tracking for the same weekend’s Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul is quite underwhelming, though.
  • First industry tracking for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales is somewhat stronger than once expected, largely thanks to a strong ad campaign and positive buzz in recent weeks. If healthy reviews/word of mouth can back those up, the franchise may surpass the $200 million domestic line again, which would be a big win for Disney considering its additional overseas potential.
  • Although TWC still has Amityville: The Awakening on its slate for a June 30 release, we’re holding off on forecasts given the film’s history of multiple delays and an absence of marketing.

Check out our 8-week forecast in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
5/12/2017 Dead Awake n/a NEW n/a NEW n/a FilmRise
5/12/2017 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword $21,000,000 -9% $61,200,000 -9% 3,600 Warner Bros.
5/12/2017 Lowriders $1,500,000 -65% $3,500,000 -65% 600 BH Tilt
5/12/2017 Snatched $21,500,000 2% $72,700,000 2% 3,300 Fox
5/19/2017 Alien: Covenant $37,000,000 -8% $95,000,000 -10% 3,400 Fox
5/19/2017 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul $6,000,000 -14% $20,600,000 -14% 3,200 Fox
5/19/2017 Everything, Everything $11,000,000 29% $33,650,000 29% 2,600 Warner Bros.
5/25/2017 Baywatch $35,000,000 (FSS)
$42,000,000 (FSSM)
$115,000,000 Paramount
5/26/2017 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $68,000,000 (FSS)
$84,000,000 (FSSM)
12% $212,000,000 12% Disney
6/2/2017 Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie $28,000,000 $93,500,000 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
6/2/2017 Wonder Woman $83,000,000 $225,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/9/2017 It Comes At Night $12,000,000 $39,000,000 A24
6/9/2017 The Mummy (2017) $50,000,000 $143,000,000 Universal
6/16/2017 47 Meters Down n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
6/16/2017 All Eyez On Me $18,000,000 $49,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
6/16/2017 Cars 3 $49,000,000 $180,000,000 Disney / Pixar
6/16/2017 Rough Night $25,000,000 $80,000,000 Sony
6/23/2017 Transformers: The Last Knight $79,000,000 $195,000,000 Paramount
6/28/2017 Baby Driver $15,000,000 NEW $50,000,000 NEW Sony / TriStar
6/30/2017 Amityville: The Awakening $8,500,000 NEW $18,000,000 NEW TWC / Dimension
6/30/2017 Despicable Me 3 $75,000,000 NEW $270,000,000 NEW Universal / Illumination
6/30/2017 The House (2017) $28,000,000 NEW $126,000,000 NEW Warner Bros. / New Line

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Note: The original publication of this story listed The House as a PG-13 comedy. It is rated R and our analysis has been updated to reflect that.

Boxoffice Staff

18 Comments

  1. Avatar
    J May 05, 2017

    Thank you for finally raising your prediction for Pirates 5. But again, it is still too low. I’d agree with the overall domestic total but opening weekend will be more.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Grant McGuire May 05, 2017

    CORRECTION: “The House” has been R by the MPAA; not PG-13

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Don May 05, 2017

    The House Is R. Not PG-13

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jay Beezy May 05, 2017

      This. It’s very clear on the poster that it’s R-rated.

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    MimikyuILoveYou May 05, 2017

    I assume this post will be deleted by the moderators like all my other posts concerning Pirates 5, but your estimates are still too low. The movie is going open big. Even Deadline is estimating a $100M opening. Send one of your people to DCA to watch the ten-minute preview and then revise your estimates.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      J May 05, 2017

      I’ve heard a lot of good things about that preview. Can you give a hint of what is in it?

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Jay Beezy May 05, 2017

      For crying out loud. Watching a 10 minute preview is not just cause to revise estimates.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      East India Company May 06, 2017

      This kind of obsession is not healthy.

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    dsagdsl May 05, 2017

    “The House” is rated R and I find it contradictory that you first say Ferrell is coming off one of his biggest box office hits then immediately say his “drawing power” isn’t as strong lately. What?

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Jalen Frisby May 05, 2017

    Can you try and Change The numbers to Transformers Please?!

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    Don't Mind Me Now May 05, 2017

    The TRANSFORMERS: THE LAST KNIGHT prediction will have to be decreased as the film has moved from a standard Friday opening to a Wednesday (5-day) opening, paralleling REVENGE OF THE FALLEN and DARK OF THE MOON. I’d estimate $60-65 million 3-day, $95-100 million 5-day.

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    Don't Mind Me Now May 05, 2017

    Seriously, boxoffice.com? You blocked my comment stating the fact that the TRANSFORMERS: THE LAST KNIGHT prediction will have to be decreased because the film moved to a Wednesday opening? Wow. You are thin-skinned as hell.

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    Bill May 05, 2017

    Way too low on wonder woman and transformers…bith will crack $100 million opening weekend at least $250 domestically! Im predicting wonder woman $125 to $150 opening with domestic total if $350 – $400 million

    Reply
    • Avatar
      WMC May 12, 2017

      That’s too high for Wonder Woman

      Reply
  10. Avatar
    DangerS May 05, 2017

    Despicable Me 3 will easily open on par with Minions or maybe slightly bigger and could have better legs.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Shaggy May 06, 2017

      75 million I agree is way too low, considering that the studio is coming off a great 2016, and the July films are like Elsa: “The movies didn’t bother me anyway!”. What I mean by that is the films (2013, 2015, 2016) averaged just over $100 million, even when the Pixar movies earlier that summer did $102.7 million on average on opening weekend. I’m guessing $95 million/$395 million total.

      Reply
  11. Avatar
    Deepak May 06, 2017

    Definitely CAPTAIN UNDERPANTS will Open with 45Million Total Domestic 160Million Overseas 280Million … MUMMY will BooM at both Domestic Overseas Wait and Watch ..Cars 3 will cross below 170million at domestic …WW below 470Million …

    Reply
  12. Avatar
    ML May 08, 2017

    too low for the D3

    Reply

Leave reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *