Long Range Forecast: ‘Fifty Shades Freed’ & ‘Peter Rabbit’

This week’s Long Range Forecast continues an early look at 2018’s slate with Fifty Shades Freed and Peter Rabbit, both scheduled to open February 9.

PROS:

  • Fifty Shades Freed will aim to tie up the trilogy with another relatively successful February run. Although earnings dipped from the first to second film, that film’s $114 million domestic pull was still reflective of a strong fan base. Opening the week before Valentine’s Day and President’s Day weekend could give this third entry a little extra leg room to aim for the $100 million total mark again.
  • Peter Rabbit will unite an ensemble voice cast led by James Corden in a live action adaptation of Beatrix Potter’s famous literary character that should appeal strongly to families with kids. Early box office comparisons can be made to films like 2011’s Hop and 2015’s Paddington.  After January 12’s Paddington 2, there’s very little family-driven competition on the slate, giving this plenty of chance to carve out that segment of the audience.

CONS:

  • Diminished returns are commonplace in most franchises entering their third or later films, and we expect that trend to continue with Fifty Shades Freed. The uninitiated aren’t likely to show up in droves for the franchise finale like some did for 2015’s first film.
  • Peter Rabbit opens months in advance of Easter, making comparisons to 2011’s Hop a bit more of a stretch since that film had a timely holiday release. There’s also a Marvel film opening one week later — Black Panther — although that will only crossover to the older portion of Peter‘s potential target audience.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle continues to show signs of a major breakout over the stretch run of the holiday season following Amazon Prime’s exclusive member screening and early critic reactions generating very positive word of mouth.
  • The first trailer for Clint Eastwood’s The 15:17 to Paris  (slated to open February 9) just debuted this week, so we’re holding off on forecasts until a decent interval of buzz assessment has passed.

The 8-Week Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
12/20/2017 The Greatest Showman $11,000,000 $75,000,000 3,100 Fox
12/20/2017 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $28,000,000 $210,000,000 11% 3,600 Sony / Columbia
12/22/2017 Downsizing $10,000,000 $59,000,000 2,500 Paramount
12/22/2017 Pitch Perfect 3 $34,000,000 $115,000,000 3,400 Universal
12/22/2017 Father Figures $7,000,000 $41,000,000 2,800 Warner Bros.
12/25/2017 All the Money in the World n/a $15,000,000 -36% 2,000 TriStar
12/29/2017 (no films scheduled currently)
1/5/2018 Insidious: The Last Key $19,500,000 $34,500,000 Universal
1/5/2018 Molly’s Game $8,000,000 $28,000,000 STXfilms
1/12/2018 The Commuter $12,000,000 $31,000,000 Lionsgate
1/12/2018 Condorito: La Pelicula $5,000,000 $12,500,000 Lionsgate
1/12/2018 Paddington 2 $19,000,000 $70,000,000 Warner Bros.
1/12/2018 The Post (expansion) $20,000,000 $90,000,000 Fox
1/12/2018 Proud Mary $17,000,000 $55,000,000 Sony / Screen Gems
1/19/2018 12 Strong $10,000,000 $36,000,000 Warner Bros.
1/19/2018 Den of Thieves $6,500,000 $13,000,000 STXfilms
1/19/2018 Forever My Girl n/a n/a Roadside Attractions
1/26/2018 Maze Runner: The Death Cure $24,000,000 $65,000,000 Fox
2/2/2018 2018 Cloverfield Movie n/a n/a Paramount
2/2/2018 Winchester: The House that Ghosts Built $10,000,000 $28,000,000 Lionsgate / CBS Films
2/9/2018 The 15:17 to Paris n/a n/a Warner Bros.
2/9/2018 Fifty Shades Freed $40,000,000 NEW $100,000,000 NEW Universal
2/9/2018 The Hurricane Heist n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
2/9/2018 Peter Rabbit $25,000,000 NEW $103,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
Boxoffice Staff

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