Long Range Forecast: ‘The Foreigner,’ ‘Happy Death Day,’ & ‘Marshall’

This week, three new films slated for wide release on October 13, 2017 join the Long Range Forecast. Here’s an initial look at how they’re currently tracking:

PROS:

  • The Foreigner (STX Entertainment) will mark Jackie Chan’s first live action wide release in North America since 2010’s Karate Kid remake. With director Martin Campbell (Casino Royale) behind the lens, and Pierce Brosnan also headlining the cast, this thriller could appeal to fans of A Walk Among the Tombstones and the Taken series.
  • Happy Death Day (Universal/Blumhouse) appears to be the marquee horror release of October until Jigsaw later in the month, and its PG-13 rating should attract teenage crowds. Opening on Friday the 13th should also give it a strong opening weekend as long as reviews and pre-release buzz are at least somewhat positive.
  • Marshall (Open Road Films) will see Chadwick Boseman take on another important historical figure after his turns as Jackie Robinson and James Brown in 42 and Get On Up, respectively. For now, box office expectations for Marshall are closer to the latter example, but, if the film generates early award season buzz, it could surprise in the long run.

CONS:

  • Word of mouth for Blade Runner 2049 will be key entering this weekend, particularly when it comes to The Foreigner‘s aspirations since both films will target largely male audiences. Given STX’s limited marketing reach with most of their films to date, it remains to be seen what kind of push they give for Jackie Chan’s return to live action.
  • Opening just over one month after It, which is well on its way to breaking out based on early buzz, Happy Death Day could be held back by having some of its pre-Halloween thunder stolen by the aforementioned horror pic.
  • As is common with low-to-mid tier releases during this time of year, social media buzz is generally muted across Twitter, Facebook, and Flixster for both Marshall and The Foreigner.

The Long Range Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
8/25/2017 All Saints $4,000,000 $14,500,000 800 Sony / Columbia
8/25/2017 Birth of the Dragon $2,500,000 $5,500,000 700 BH Tilt
8/25/2017 Leap! $3,800,000 -11% $13,300,000 -11% 2,000 The Weinstein Company
9/8/2017 Home Again $12,000,000 $45,000,000 Open Road Films
9/8/2017 It $46,000,000 $115,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
9/15/2017 All I See Is You $6,500,000 $15,600,000 Open Road
9/15/2017 American Assassin $11,500,000 $29,000,000 Lionsgate
9/15/2017 mother! $10,500,000 $27,000,000 Paramount
9/22/2017 Friend Request n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
9/22/2017 Kingsman: The Golden Circle $39,000,000 $100,000,000 Fox
9/22/2017 The LEGO Ninjago Movie $40,000,000 $138,000,000 Warner Bros.
9/29/2017 American Made $15,000,000 $50,500,000 Universal
9/29/2017 Flatliners (2017) $11,000,000 $26,000,000 Sony / Screen Gems
9/29/2017 A Question of Faith n/a n/a Pure Flix
10/6/2017 Blade Runner 2049 $44,000,000 $115,000,000 Warner Bros.
10/6/2017 The Mountain Between Us $8,000,000 $25,000,000 Fox
10/6/2017 My Little Pony (2017) $7,500,000 $21,500,000 Lionsgate
10/13/2017 The Foreigner $10,000,000 NEW $27,700,000 NEW STX Entertainment
10/13/2017 Happy Death Day $20,000,000 NEW $40,000,000 NEW Universal / Blumhouse
10/13/2017 Marshall $12,000,000 NEW $39,000,000 NEW Open Road

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

11 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Malik A. August 18, 2017

    I think Happy Death Day will do better, around 27 million. Jason Blum has been unstoppable this thanks to Split and Get Out.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin August 18, 2017

      Happy Death Day is done by the guy behind Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones and the premise may remind people too much of Edge of Tomorrow if they murdered its sense of logic…it’s not going to be good and that $20 million sounds about right only because it’s appealing to an overused horror movie marketing trope…Friday the 13th. I wouldn’t be surprised if it earned less, actually. Another failed movie, Wish Upon, used the same stereotypical teenage culture that is featured in this movie except with a high school setting. The only reason why Universal and Blumhouse have had a hot streak this year was because their releases were the opposite of Wish Upon; they were steps ahead of other horror films with great and early reviews as well as talented people behind and in front of the camera.
      On the opposite end of the spectrum, it looks like Doug Liman and Tom Cruise may have another hit on their hands. American Made sports an early RT score of 100%.
      For everything else I could mention, I refer you to my previous comments regarding Long Range Forecasts.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Taylor August 18, 2017

    Other publications (deadline) estimate IT at a $50-$60 million opening. I think it’s a stretch but it could happen. You are maybe being conservative.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      navtej singh August 18, 2017

      not a stretch at all i think it will be close to 75m, anticipation for this movie is off the charts

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    Kimbo Slice August 18, 2017

    Underwhelming estimates all around. The Box Office will have to rely on IT breaking out big because the other films aside from Kingsmen and Blade Runner look DOA.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Taylor August 18, 2017

      Maybe next week, with the 6 new releases for October 20 things will be more interesting, or not.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Austin August 21, 2017

        Those releases on October 20th look like last-minute table scraps. In fact, that’s the best way to describe releases on the third weekend of October the past two times.
        September will peak on the weekends IT, The Lego Ninjago Movie, and Kingsman 2 release. October will peak on the weekend that Blade Runner 2049 releases. Then, it’s all downhill from there until Thor 3 releases.

        Reply
  4. Avatar
    Thedude3445 August 19, 2017

    American Assassin is probably too high, though based on the already-lukewarm reviews, American Made is probably exactly where it will end up.

    Social media buzz might be low but I think the My Little Pony movie will do significantly better than the current prediction. It’s two weeks after Ninjago and both movies come after a long drought of kids’ movies. Unless it’s terrible it will do a lot better than Shaun the Sheep did two years ago. Of course if they had released this movie 3-4 years ago they’d still have all those teenage boy “Bronies” to go milk money out of, but they waited too long in a classic Hollywood move.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Daniel. A August 19, 2017

    mother! Is way to low. I’d say a $20 Million Opening and it’ll have good legs from amazing reviews most likely so a $120 Million Domestic Haul. IT is probably going to open around $45 Million. I think it’ll have mediocre reviews and have drops around 50-60% for a $100 Million domestic haul.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin August 20, 2017

      To me, IT is far more substantive than mother, so I think it’ll be flipped; IT will have good or great reviews while mother gets mediocre reviews. Appealing to a mainstream audience will benefit IT, but mother, advertised like an arthouse film, won’t benefit much if at all from mainstream audiences. Both films, though, have front-loaded appeal, so they’ll drop like typical horror films (55% or more); however, IT has a bigger fanbase to the point where I see the overall domestic total of mother the same as (at best) or under the 3-day opening of IT.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Miles August 22, 2017

      Literally every ‘unofficial’ but confirmed review/screening I’ve seen of IT is nothing short of amazing. $65m OW, $140 total is my prediction.

      Reply

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