Long Range Forecast: ‘Geostorm,’ ‘Only the Brave,’ ‘Same Kind of Different As Me,’ ‘The Snowman,’ & ‘Boo 2! A Madea Halloween’

This week’s update to the Long Range Forecast sees the addition of five new titles slated to debut on October 20, 2017. Our preliminary analyses and forecasts:

PROS:

  • From director Dean Devlin (producer of the Independence Day films), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) will hope to attract fans of disaster flicks. If Gerard Butler’s fans from Olympus Has Fallen and London Has Fallen show up here, the film could mildly surprise.
  • Only the Brave (Sony/Columbia) boasts an ensemble led by Josh Brolin and Miles Teller that could appeal very well across Middle America. Based on a true story, this firefighter drama has notable sleeper potential.
  • Same Kind of Different As Me (Pure Flix) will mark the latest faith-based drama aimed at bringing out church crowds ahead of the holiday season. Its own ensemble could be an advantage toward mild success beyond that base if reviews are strong.
  • The Snowman (Universal) could be a well-timed thriller with a pre-Halloween release. Based on a preexisting novel, fans of the book and Michael Fassbender will be counted upon to drive attendance.
  • Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween (Lionsgate) aims to ride the momentum of last October’s hit predecessor. Perry’s fan base remains a reliable draw, and as one of the few comedies opening this autumn, we expect another successful run.

CONS:

  • Geostorm‘s biggest hurdle to climb is the simple fact that disaster pics are long past their box office prime, with few exceptions. Initial buzz here is quiet so far and leagues behind that of San Andreas.
  • Only the Brave‘s biggest challenge may be the competitive market it enters as October is packed with mid-range, adult-leaning dramas.
  • Same Kind of Different As Me has already been subject to several release delays, and distributor Pure Flix’s past releases have often settled into a consistent range of lower-tier box office performers.
  • The Snowman doesn’t boast quite the same level of pre-release social buzz enjoyed by last year’s The Girl on the Train.
  • Boo 2! is a likely candidate to experience some drop-off from its predecessor, as is common with many comedy sequels.

This Week’s Other Changes & Notes

  • It continues to ascend as exceptionally strong pre-sales reports and social media trends further its candidacy to break out in early September..
  • American Assassin has been the recipient of positive Twitter and Facebook growth in recent days. Although that is attributable to manufactured marketing pushes, the source material’s fans could help the film carve out a respectable audience if reviews come in strong next month.
  • Speaking of improving buzz, Kingsman: The Golden Circle continues to generate very healthy social media trends. That weekend remains a crucial one for the early fall box office as LEGO Ninjago should also benefit from the severe lack of high profile animated releases since July.

The Long Range Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
8/25/2017 Tulip Fever n/a n/a 600 The Weinstein Company
9/8/2017 Home Again $12,000,000 $45,000,000 2,800 Open Road Films
9/8/2017 It $60,000,000 30% $150,000,000 30% 3,600 Warner Bros. / New Line
9/15/2017 American Assassin $14,500,000 26% $40,000,000 38% Lionsgate
9/15/2017 mother! $10,500,000 $27,000,000 Paramount
9/22/2017 Friend Request n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
9/22/2017 Kingsman: The Golden Circle $42,000,000 8% $107,700,000 8% Fox
9/22/2017 The LEGO Ninjago Movie $42,500,000 6% $146,600,000 6% Warner Bros.
9/29/2017 American Made $15,000,000 $50,500,000 Universal
9/29/2017 Flatliners (2017) $11,000,000 $26,000,000 Sony / Screen Gems
9/29/2017 A Question of Faith n/a n/a Pure Flix
10/6/2017 Blade Runner 2049 $44,000,000 $115,000,000 Warner Bros.
10/6/2017 The Mountain Between Us $8,000,000 $25,000,000 Fox
10/6/2017 My Little Pony (2017) $7,500,000 $21,500,000 Lionsgate
10/13/2017 The Foreigner $10,000,000 $27,700,000 STX Entertainment
10/13/2017 Happy Death Day $20,000,000 $40,000,000 Universal / Blumhouse
10/13/2017 Marshall $12,000,000 $39,000,000 Open Road
10/20/2017 Geostorm $12,000,000 NEW $27,800,000 NEW Warner Bros.
10/20/2017 Only the Brave $16,000,000 NEW $55,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
10/20/2017 Same Kind of Different As Me $4,500,000 NEW $12,000,000 NEW Pure Flix
10/20/2017 The Snowman $11,000,000 NEW $31,000,000 NEW Universal
10/20/2017 Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween $23,500,000 NEW $59,300,000 NEW Lionsgate

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

20 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Dave August 25, 2017

    I think Kingsman is the new Bond and I think it has a substantial “cult” following since it’s initial release. Comparable franchises might be the Bourne films pre-Legacy or John Wick, I think.

    If that’s the case, my guesses are a $50M opening w/ very good legs that huff it out to a $215M domestic haul.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Kimbo Slice August 25, 2017

    I think it will be tough to make Kingsmen 2 feel fresh. No doubt it’s going to make money, I just hope it’s quality.

    Ill freely admit to loving Madea. Stop hating on me lol. But I absolutely hated Boo Halloween. Hope Tyler Perry doesn’t cast those YouTube idiots again. But yes this movie will see a drop off in viewers because the first one wasn’t good at all.

    Alicia Vikander. I see her more as an indie actress. I was surprised she was cast as Lara Croft. I’m not sure she’s interesting enough to be a lead a blockbuster. I find her very stiff as an actress, yet she has an Oscar, albeit for a film I didn’t like. But look at Gal Gadot. So time will tell.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Austin August 25, 2017

    I didn’t like last year’s Madea Halloween at all, but its success will lead this to success as long as the product stays cheap.
    Geostorm doesn’t look any better…it looks laughably bad, and even its VFX look terrible on some occassions.
    Only the Brave may appeal more to those living in Arizona, but to me, it looks like a generic true-story movie.
    I’m not saying that any of the mentioned movies need lower forecasts, but they don’t look good and I don’t see their forecasts increasing anytime soon.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Taylor August 25, 2017

    Tulip Fever comes out wide on September 1.
    9/11 comes out the week after that, September 8 but I don’t see it here.
    And lastly, Til Death Do Us Part comes out September 29. It will probably do Where The Bough Breaks business or even less.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    navtej singh August 25, 2017

    finally your IT numbers are starting to make sense, wtf were you think at 40m OW and 100m total, i still think it will open higher than 70m

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Matt D. August 26, 2017

    100% agree with prediction on It and American Assassian. Finally they increased their prediction on America. Assassian. I think Kingsman should be increased to $60 M and finish around $140-160 M. And again Ninjago will probably make $30 M OW and finish around $85-90 M. A Madea Halloween 2 will probably make around $15-18 M and finish around $50 M like the Madea Christmas. Geostorm will be another bomb on WB and production company Skydance’s record. Only the Brave should hopefully play out like Deepwater Horizon. And lastly about Blade Runner 2049, I am worried it will perform like Alien: Covenant because of how late the sequel to Prometheus was but not as long of a wait as long as the 35 year wait for the Blade Runner sequel but hopefully it will do well over the month with all the moderate competition.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin August 29, 2017

      I remember having two guidelines on how American Assassin can succeed: an R-rating and good reviews. The most recent MPAA rating board confirms an R-rating for American Assassin, which is promising. Now, I’m waiting for the reviews.

      Reply
  7. Avatar
    John August 26, 2017

    You should increase American Made’s BO since reviews are so far solid for it and Mother is still insanley low

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Anusha August 28, 2017

      American Made will open to a minimum of $20-$25 Million after those great reviews.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Vicky August 28, 2017

      American made will open to more than $25 Million and will top of at $75-$80 Million after those good reviews and award buzz

      Reply
  8. Avatar
    Louis August 27, 2017

    Way too low on mother. 25M or more. IT should hit 65 to 70. As will KINGSMAN. NNJAGO shoukd do 55 and PONY 15

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    Anusha August 28, 2017

    Guys American Made is getting amazing reviews from critics, you need to increase it estimates. I already saw it in the UK and its amazing.

    Reply
  10. Avatar
    Vicky August 28, 2017

    American made will open to more than $25 Million and will top of at $75-$80 Million after those good reviews and award buzz

    Reply
  11. Avatar
    R. Price August 31, 2017

    Predictions for mother! and American Made are way too low. They both have a legitimate chance of crossing $ 100 m.

    Reply
  12. Avatar
    Taylor August 31, 2017

    Leatherface is the 10th most anticipated movie for the rest of 2017 based on IMDb users. I found that to be strange because I thought it would be a limited release (it’s not even listed on boxofficemojo.com). Does anyone can provide insight about the type of release?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Taylor August 31, 2017

      *10th most anticipated HORROR movie*. That explains it. But still, is it gonna be wide?

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Austin August 31, 2017

        I would like to say yes. I expect the trailer to play in front of IT and a release date to be announced soon. Maybe Leatherface will release in October, but even then, there will be a huge oversaturation of horror film during that month, and the best ones would have already released in September (IT and mother!). However, it would be a nasty surprise if they delayed it until November, or worse, January 2018.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Austin August 31, 2017

          Update: IMDB has the release date for Leatherface at October 20th, 2017.

          Reply

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