Long Range Forecast: ‘Geostorm,’ ‘Only the Brave,’ ‘Same Kind of Different As Me,’ ‘The Snowman,’ & ‘Boo 2! A Madea Halloween’
This week’s update to the Long Range Forecast sees the addition of five new titles slated to debut on October 20, 2017. Our preliminary analyses and forecasts:
- From director Dean Devlin (producer of the Independence Day films), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) will hope to attract fans of disaster flicks. If Gerard Butler’s fans from Olympus Has Fallen and London Has Fallen show up here, the film could mildly surprise.
- Only the Brave (Sony/Columbia) boasts an ensemble led by Josh Brolin and Miles Teller that could appeal very well across Middle America. Based on a true story, this firefighter drama has notable sleeper potential.
- Same Kind of Different As Me (Pure Flix) will mark the latest faith-based drama aimed at bringing out church crowds ahead of the holiday season. Its own ensemble could be an advantage toward mild success beyond that base if reviews are strong.
- The Snowman (Universal) could be a well-timed thriller with a pre-Halloween release. Based on a preexisting novel, fans of the book and Michael Fassbender will be counted upon to drive attendance.
- Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween (Lionsgate) aims to ride the momentum of last October’s hit predecessor. Perry’s fan base remains a reliable draw, and as one of the few comedies opening this autumn, we expect another successful run.
- Geostorm‘s biggest hurdle to climb is the simple fact that disaster pics are long past their box office prime, with few exceptions. Initial buzz here is quiet so far and leagues behind that of San Andreas.
- Only the Brave‘s biggest challenge may be the competitive market it enters as October is packed with mid-range, adult-leaning dramas.
- Same Kind of Different As Me has already been subject to several release delays, and distributor Pure Flix’s past releases have often settled into a consistent range of lower-tier box office performers.
- The Snowman doesn’t boast quite the same level of pre-release social buzz enjoyed by last year’s The Girl on the Train.
- Boo 2! is a likely candidate to experience some drop-off from its predecessor, as is common with many comedy sequels.
This Week’s Other Changes & Notes
- It continues to ascend as exceptionally strong pre-sales reports and social media trends further its candidacy to break out in early September..
- American Assassin has been the recipient of positive Twitter and Facebook growth in recent days. Although that is attributable to manufactured marketing pushes, the source material’s fans could help the film carve out a respectable audience if reviews come in strong next month.
- Speaking of improving buzz, Kingsman: The Golden Circle continues to generate very healthy social media trends. That weekend remains a crucial one for the early fall box office as LEGO Ninjago should also benefit from the severe lack of high profile animated releases since July.
The Long Range Forecast:
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Location Count||Distributor|
|8/25/2017||Tulip Fever||n/a||n/a||600||The Weinstein Company|
|9/8/2017||Home Again||$12,000,000||$45,000,000||2,800||Open Road Films|
|9/8/2017||It||$60,000,000||30%||$150,000,000||30%||3,600||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|9/22/2017||Friend Request||n/a||n/a||Entertainment Studios|
|9/22/2017||Kingsman: The Golden Circle||$42,000,000||8%||$107,700,000||8%||Fox|
|9/22/2017||The LEGO Ninjago Movie||$42,500,000||6%||$146,600,000||6%||Warner Bros.|
|9/29/2017||Flatliners (2017)||$11,000,000||$26,000,000||Sony / Screen Gems|
|9/29/2017||A Question of Faith||n/a||n/a||Pure Flix|
|10/6/2017||Blade Runner 2049||$44,000,000||$115,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|10/6/2017||The Mountain Between Us||$8,000,000||$25,000,000||Fox|
|10/6/2017||My Little Pony (2017)||$7,500,000||$21,500,000||Lionsgate|
|10/13/2017||The Foreigner||$10,000,000||$27,700,000||STX Entertainment|
|10/13/2017||Happy Death Day||$20,000,000||$40,000,000||Universal / Blumhouse|
|10/20/2017||Only the Brave||$16,000,000||NEW||$55,000,000||NEW||Sony / Columbia|
|10/20/2017||Same Kind of Different As Me||$4,500,000||NEW||$12,000,000||NEW||Pure Flix|
|10/20/2017||Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween||$23,500,000||NEW||$59,300,000||NEW||Lionsgate|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.