Long Range Forecast: ‘Ghost In the Shell,’ ‘The Boss Baby,’ & ‘The Zookeeper’s Wife’

This week’s edition of our forecast closes out the month of March with an early look at three wide releases slated to open on the final day of the month.

First on deck is the long-awaited live action treat of the classic anime novel, Ghost In the Shell. With Scarlett Johansson in the lead and already boasting resounding success in her career as an action star in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and 2014’s Lucy, we’re expecting Ghost to follow in the footsteps of the latter as opposed to the likes of Aeon Flux or Ultraviolet. Some additional front-loading should be expected from fans of the original property, especially with The Fate of the Furious opening two weeks later. A major key to Ghost‘s long-term prospects will rest in how well the filmmakers have strengthened its appeal to mainstream audiences. A planned Super Bowl TV spot this weekend will officially ramp up the marketing stage that section of the audience.

The Boss Baby marks the latest offering from DreamWorks Animation. Alec Baldwin’s presence as the lead voice should lend appeal to parents, particularly with his renewed comedic presence of late thanks to a popular take on a certain newly elected president. If Power Rangers hits as well as we expect the weekend before though, Boss Baby will mainly be catering to parents with very young kids — an audience that will also be cornered by Smurfs: The Lost Village one week later. As such, we’re expecting this to be one of the studio’s more modest performers overall.

Last but not least, The Zookeeper’s Wife will aim for adult moviegoers over this same weekend. Despite Jessica Chastain’s growing fan base, this looks to be a low-end performer for now as it arrives at the end of such a crowded month.

Broad Green Pictures’ Step Sisters is currently scheduled to open on March 31 as well; however, we are excluding it from the forecast right now given the lack of any significant marketing so far.

Meanwhile, we’ve updated a handful of other forecasts this week as buzz continues to shift around key titles. In particular, we’re increasingly confident that next weekend (February 10-12) will be a big one with The LEGO Batman MovieFifty Shades Darker, and John Wick: Chapter 2 tracking very well across all metrics.

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
2/10/2017 Fifty Shades Darker $46,000,000 $103,000,000 3% 3,700 Universal
2/10/2017 John Wick: Chapter 2 $24,500,000 4% $60,000,000 7% 2,900 Lionsgate / Summit
2/10/2017 The LEGO Batman Movie $80,000,000 5% $289,000,000 6% 4,000 Warner Bros.
2/17/2017 A Cure for Wellness $8,000,000 -33% $21,000,000 -38% 3,000 Fox
2/17/2017 Fist Fight $22,000,000 $63,000,000 3,100 Warner Bros. / New Line
2/17/2017 The Great Wall $19,000,000 -14% $49,000,000 -14% 3,200 Universal
2/24/2017 Collide $5,000,000 $11,000,000 Open Road
2/24/2017 Get Out $24,000,000 20% $69,000,000 23% Universal
2/24/2017 Rock Dog $3,000,000 $7,000,000 -13% Lionsgate / Summit Premiere
3/3/2017 Before I Fall $7,000,000 $18,000,000 Open Road
3/3/2017 LEAP! $6,500,000 $20,000,000 The Weinstein Company
3/3/2017 Logan $81,000,000 $205,000,000 Fox
3/3/2017 The Shack $9,500,000 $34,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
3/10/2017 Kong: Skull Island $35,000,000 $100,000,000 Warner Bros.
3/10/2017 Trainspotting 2 n/a n/a Sony / TriStar
3/10/2017 The Wall $7,000,000 $25,000,000 Roadside Attractions / Amazon Studios
3/17/2017 Beauty and the Beast (2017) $144,000,000 $470,000,000 Disney
3/17/2017 The Belko Experiment $7,000,000 $16,000,000 High Top Releasing
3/24/2017 CHiPS $16,000,000 $53,000,000 Warner Bros.
3/24/2017 Life (2017) $15,000,000 $42,000,000 Sony / Columbia
3/24/2017 Power Rangers $38,000,000 $110,000,000 Lionsgate
3/31/2017 The Boss Baby $24,000,000  NEW $83,000,000  NEW Fox / DreamWorks Animation
3/31/2017 Ghost in the Shell (2017) $40,000,000 NEW $105,000,000 NEW Paramount / DreamWorks
3/31/2017 The Zookeeper’s Wife $5,000,000 NEW $19,000,000 NEW Focus Features

Shawn Robbins and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.

Shawn Robbins

12 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Michael February 03, 2017

    Your crazy of you think Boss Baby is doing less than $100 Million domestically when all is said and done. The trailers have been funny and I can see this doing about the same business as Trolls.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Kuku February 03, 2017

      That was the case also for Sing, and now it’s about to pass Incredibles, and more than likely finish ahead of Monsters U as well ($258.8 million entering this weekend, only needs $9.6 million to go).

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Rodrigo Flores February 04, 2017

      Michael,i think youre right.And I think it’s gonna make $125 millions at least domestically.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Jacen February 03, 2017

    I would have expected Ghost in the Shell to have a higher forecast, especially when compared to the Mighty Moronic Power Retches. Ghost has an excellent initial trailer, visually striking and avoiding many of the cliches typical of mainstream trailers; Rangers looks like a bad update of the Breakfast Club colliding with an overly-plastic version of Chronicle. I suppose the logic here is that franchise history will help keep it from Project Almanac level grosses, and perhaps it’s better to have a lower initial prediction for Ghost so that they can see how it tracks from here.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Tomer February 04, 2017

      No way in hell Ghost in the Shell makes $100M. And the trailers have not been as good as you think.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    frank February 04, 2017

    Wick seems very low. I’d be very surprised if it many anything less than $35million opening weekend.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Tom February 04, 2017

    Curious to see whether T2 Trainspotting will be limited release considering the first movie is an iconic British movie.

    If The Great Wall projects any lower, I can see this classed as a fatal flop, this film even had a weaker opening in China.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Asuka February 04, 2017

    You underestimate JW2’s opening WE by about $10m; John Wick has become a cult favorite, and has only grown its audience since the last installment. Domestic total will approach $100m.

    GITS is a wild card; as a fan of the franchise, the marketing hasn’t done a good job of educating the uninitiated (which is almost everyone outside a fanboy subgenera) about the brand, and Johannson was a terrible choice (not because she’s white, but because she has neither the physicality or personality for a convincing heroine). Sanders is a hack, which is apparent from the clear shot-for-shot remakes of many of the original film’s scenes, and the stupid, fifteen-year-old slo-mo wall-running Matrix gimmicks. I desperately want it to win, because the source material is deserving and there are many other manga/anime properties that would make great movies, but this one looks like a bomb. Your WE estimate is a little low, but I think your domestic total is spot on (which would be a disaster, given what is almost certainly a $150m+ budget).

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Kei March 03, 2017

      I agree with the part about Sanders and Johannsson, but not only is there NEVER a good reason to whitewash (as shown here http://www.pajiba.com/think_pieces/common-defenses-of-whitewashing-and-why-they-are-bullshit.php ) and not only does the crew now look like fools in trying to excuse a problem that never should’ve been there in the first place, it’s *always* the proverbial canary in the coal mine of all the other general problems the movie has (ex. get past the racebending in “The Last Airbender” and there’s still the sexism, bad special effects, wooden acting, characters not being themselves, etc.)

      Reply
  6. Avatar
    Taylor February 05, 2017

    Does not having a trailer and and a marketing campaign as of yet, mean that it will be rescheduled for a later time? A month ago, I asked myself the same question about Patient Zero, and the next days its off the schedule.

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    lamur February 06, 2017

    JOHN WICK CHAPTER 2- 3 DAY OPENING- WILL SURPRISE AT- 40 M- 50 M

    and will end up DOMESTICALLY at- 100 M- 200 M- A SURPRISE HIT FOR 2017

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    Ben Lamford February 06, 2017

    Most of these I expect to be right way off with Kong I feel it won’t do fantastic but definitely like 50+ opening weekend and boss baby I think will be around there but I can see it doing better since the first trailer has any of 20 millljon views and a bit overboard with Lego Batman will probably not go as high as this says

    Reply

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