Long Range Forecast: ‘It’ Promises September Scares, Will ‘Home Again’ Counter-Program?; ‘Dunkirk’ Buzz Building

Our early look at September’s release slate continues this week with two new additions to the Long Range Forecast:

It
(Warner Bros. / New Line)

PROS:

  • Legions of Stephen King fans have awaited a modern take on the property, one of the famed author’s most popular works.
  • Social media around the first trailer’s release was ecstatic, delivering a very impressive number of views across multiple platforms.
  • The film’s official Facebook page is already trending ahead the pace of 2014’s Annabelle.
  • The lack of breakouts in the horror genre so far in 2017 has left the target audience hungry for scares. Combined with the industry’s increased adoption of utilizing the year-round calendar for high profile films, this could be a standout September performer along the lines of Insidious: Chapter 2.

CONS:

  • Opening one week into the typically slow month of September will always be a slight concern as audiences come down from the summer movie rush (then again, they may ready to head back after what looks to be a weak August).
  • Social media tracking will naturally be quite challenging given the film’s generic title. As such, Twitter trends will be intriguing to watch.

Home Again
(Open Road Films)

PROS:

  • The combination of Reese Witherspoon and writer/director Hallie Meyers-Shyer (daughter of Nancy Meyers) could turn into this an appealing rom-com for women.
  • With a number of male-leaning films slated for late August and September, there’s little in the way of direct competition for the target audience.

CONS:

  • Although her mother’s influence could be very helpful among fans of It’s ComplicatedThe Intern, and The Holiday, Meyers-Shyer’s pull as a filmmaker is untested since this is her debut as both a writer and director.
  • We expect a somewhat back-loaded run since It is likely to attract a large share of date night and female audiences itself on the same opening weekend.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • Dunkirk‘s social media activity continues to impress in a huge way ahead of next week’s opening. Although there are several caveats to this comparison, the film’s Twitter activity is significantly ahead of the pace of films like GravityThe MartianMad Max: Fury Road, and American Sniper.
  • Girls Trip continues to trend upward as an early wave of positive reviews back up the comedy’s increasingly healthy social media footprint.
  • The Emoji Movie has been given an uptick following Despicable Me 3‘s performance coming under a bit below expectations, which could help the former title’s ability to court parents with young kids in summer’s final month.

The Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
7/21/2017 Dunkirk $55,500,000 11% $220,000,000 6% 3,600 Warner Bros.
7/21/2017 Girls Trip $20,000,000 5% $70,000,000 5% 2,500 Universal
7/21/2017 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $18,500,000 $49,000,000 -9% 3,200 STX Entertainment
7/28/2017 Atomic Blonde $27,500,000 $82,500,000 3,000 Focus Features
7/28/2017 The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself $29,000,000 7% $102,000,000 7% 3,400 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 The Dark Tower $42,000,000 $107,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 Detroit n/a n/a Annapurna Pictures
8/4/2017 An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power n/a n/a Paramount
8/4/2017 Kidnap $5,000,000 $12,000,000 Aviron
8/11/2017 Annabelle: Creation $27,000,000 $61,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
8/11/2017 The Glass Castle $3,500,000 $10,500,000 Lionsgate
8/11/2017 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature $12,000,000 $40,000,000 Open Road
8/18/2017 The Hitman’s Bodyguard $19,000,000 $57,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
8/18/2017 Logan Lucky $12,000,000 $39,000,000 Bleecker Street
8/25/2017 All Saints $4,000,000 $12,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/25/2017 Birth of the Dragon $2,500,000 $5,500,000 BH Tilt
8/25/2017 Crown Heights n/a n/a Amazon Studio / IFC Films
8/25/2017 Polaroid $9,000,000 $23,500,000 TWC / Dimension
8/25/2017 Tulip Fever n/a n/a Weinstein Company
8/30/2017 Leap! $4,500,000 $15,800,000 The Weinstein Company
9/1/2017 Renegades $4,000,000 $9,500,000 STX Entertainment
9/1/2017 Unlocked n/a n/a Lionsgate Premiere
9/8/2017 Home Again $12,000,000 NEW $45,000,000 NEW Open Road Films
9/8/2017 It $40,000,000 NEW $100,000,000 NEW Warner Bros. / New Line

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

11 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Austin July 14, 2017

    Dunkirk’s forecast is fixed (again), but the Emoji Movie is still too high (it will probably be the worst-reviewed kids movie since Nine Lives or, if it counts, Max Steel) and there’s considerable proof that no amount of marketing will save a movie with bad reviews from an underwhelming opening.
    Valerian’s decent, but declining Rotten Tomatoes score could boost it to a $20 million opening, but it will still flop in the US guaranteed.
    In regard to Girls Trip, I wan’t to recall two movies with great early reviews but mediocre overall reviews and opening in the end, Hardcore Henry and Despicable Me 3. It still could suffer in that same way, but in all fairness, it could also save this party-hard, R-rated comedy ship from entirely sinking this year, even though Girls Trip wouldn’t save much of it.
    Otherwise, Atomic Blonde is too high ($15-20 million), All Saints is too low ($8 million), and Detroit needs a forecast ($7 million).
    Also, to everyone anticipating The Dark Tower or fans of the respective book or anyone in particular: Do you prefer for The Dark Tower to be R-rated, or are you fine with a PG13 rating?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen July 14, 2017

      I stopped reading Dark Tower after book three, but from what I recall it could work well as pg-13 if we’re talking the type of pg-13 that Return of the King was rewarded. It’s all about tone and style, not necessarily gore, language, and nudity. That said, the content of the trailer does not impress (saw it again in front of Apes3) so I doubt that an R-rated or pg-13 version is going to do as well as this site predicts, unless the film turns out to be quite good and gets the loving reviews to go with it.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      J July 15, 2017

      I’ve only read the first book and it’d probably be just fine with a PG-13 rating. Nothing inappropriate enough to justify an r rating, unless it gets really bloody.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Austin July 19, 2017

        According to the recent rating board, The Dark Tower is PG13. However, here’s the other bit of news that shocked me: it is only 95 minutes!

        Reply
  2. Avatar
    Kimbo Slice July 14, 2017

    I hope Girls Trip does well. I just enjoy Queen Latifah.

    I think Atomic Blonde’s prediction is too high as well. Charlize and James are having a great year. Their visibility has gone up due to the big box office success of Split and Fast and the Furious but they’re not actors who usually bring box office heat by themselves. Good reviews will help and the trend of having a woman kick ass is pretty popular right now so it may surprise. But I’m thinking a 15-18million debut. Time will tell.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    navtej singh July 14, 2017

    dunkirk will be touch and go, if reviews are good and harry styles fans show up it will do very well
    i have a feeling that IT going to blow up pretty big 40m seems less way less

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Movieman July 15, 2017

    100 million total for the biggest trailer of all time? Will it really have almost half the box office of the view count. The view count in 24 hours? I think a weekend in the 60-70 million is more likely unless it gets horrible reviews

    Reply
    • Avatar
      randy July 18, 2017

      I think the conservative guess is based off not knowing how the reviews will go.

      If the buzz is good, the movie will def open to 60 mil.

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    DangerS July 15, 2017

    The biggest September opening so far is Hotel Transylvania 2’s $48.5M. With the buzz for IT growing, I could see it topping that.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin July 15, 2017

      If it doesn’t happen, it will open the doors for Kingsman: The Golden Circle or The Lego Ninjago Movie to do just that later. Or it could do that altogether regardless.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Jacen July 17, 2017

        If the three movies are any good, you could be right about each being huge. IT looks like a good film, and I have recently found myself really looking forward to Kingsman 2–even though Atomic Blond, Dunkirk, and Valerian are still on my radar–which suggests moving it out of the crowded summer could result in great box office (if others are feeling like I am about the film, of course). Ninjago? Yeah, why not? This could be a different September.

        Reply

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