Long Range Forecast: ‘Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle,’ ‘Pitch Perfect 3,’ ‘Downsizing,’ & ‘Father Figures’; Updated ‘Justice League’ Tracking

The penultimate weekend of 2017 is the focus of this week’s Long Range Forecast, which is currently slated to see four films debut between Wednesday, December 20 and Friday, December 22 ahead of Christmas Day the following Monday.

PROS:

  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle has significant advantages in its favor: the combined star power of Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, and Jack Black (not to mention Karen Gillan of Guardians of the Galaxy and Doctor Who fame), a release pattern similar to 2006’s Night at the Museum when Christmas last fell on a Monday, and what we think will be a healthy amount of nostalgic goodwill from the original 1995 film starring Robin Williams — which was a massive holiday sleeper hit that many 20- and 30-something audiences grew up on. Adjusted for inflation, that movie earned over $204 million domestically, which gives some indication of the potential here among family crowds.
  • Downsizing will aim for adult and arthouse audiences with stars Matt Damon and Kristen Wiig in writer/director Alexander Payne’s newest project. An awards push for the satirical sci-fi/fantasy drama could give it some longevity at the box office into early 2018.
  • Pitch Perfect 3 will rally fans of the franchise in what is reported to be the final film of the series (starring the current cast, anyway). A holiday release should help pad staying power relative to the second film’s slightly front-loaded run, especially as one of the season’s few releases with strong appeal to women.
  • Father Figures is aiming to serve as the holiday corridor’s adult comedy option for those of age. A solid first trailer suggests some modest potential as a counter-programmer.

CONS:

  • The biggest hurdles for the Jumanji sequel to overcome will clearly be competition for family crowds against the holdover business of Star Wars: The Last Jedi, as well as general sentiment for how the film stands up to the 1995 original.
  • Downsizing‘s initial reviews — while mostly positive — suggest it may be slightly esoteric for mainstream audiences, similar to the way 2003’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind succeeded in greater ways critically and on the awards circuit than it necessarily did at the box office.
  • As comedy sequels go, it’s rare for a franchise to improve upon itself once — let alone twice. We expect some diminished returns for Pitch Perfect 3 compared to the second film, but the perspective of this still generating a strong run relative to expenses and the first film’s unexpected sleeper success is important to keep in mind.
  • Father Figures may have a tougher time finding the kind of audience as Why Him? last Christmas, but reviews and word of mouth will ultimately be what matters.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • Thor: Ragnarok‘s strong reviews and marketing continue to impress, while traditional tracking has reportedly (but unconfirmed) now pegged it for a debut north of $120 million. Still, with Twitter activity closely mirroring that of Doctor Strange and trailing Spider-Man: Homecoming, we’re a bit more cautious with our increased forecasts this week.
  • In addition to competing for the female portion of Thor‘s audience, A Bad Moms Christmas has shown social media patterns consistent with that of Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising. As such, we’re slightly lowering expectations ahead of next week’s release.
  • On a similar track as A Bad Moms ChristmasDaddy’s Home 2 remains a candidate to follow in the footsteps of other comedy sequels to perform a bit more modestly than originally expected — particularly with increasing optimism around Murder on the Orient Express the same weekend.
  • While measurable Twitter activity trails that of both Suicide Squad and Wonder Woman at this stage, Justice League‘s first “traditional” industry tracking this week is in line with the former and noticeably ahead of the latter. We’ve lowered forecasts to more closely match those expectations for now, although reviews could still sway things again in either direction throughout the coming weeks.

The 2-Month Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
11/1/2017 A Bad Moms Christmas $17,500,000 -20% $64,000,000 -25% 3,500 STXfilms
11/3/2017 Thor: Ragnarok $109,000,000 4% $280,000,000 4% 3,800 Disney
11/10/2017 Daddy’s Home 2 $24,000,000 -11% $76,000,000 -11% 3,300 Paramount
11/10/2017 Murder on the Orient Express $25,000,000 $94,000,000 3,100 Fox
11/17/2017 Justice League $130,000,000 -13% $312,000,000 -6% Warner Bros.
11/17/2017 Roman J. Israel, Esq. n/a n/a Sony / Columbia
11/17/2017 The Star $13,000,000 $60,000,000 Sony / Columbia
11/17/2017 Wonder $16,000,000 $55,000,000 -15% Lionsgate
11/22/2017 Coco $60,000,000 $270,000,000 Disney
11/22/2017 The Man Who Invented Christmas n/a n/a Bleecker Street
11/22/2017 Polaroid $2,500,000 $7,000,000 TWC / Dimension
11/24/2017 Darkest Hour n/a n/a Focus Features
12/1/2017 (no films scheduled currently)
12/8/2017 The Disaster Artist n/a n/a A24
12/8/2017 Just Getting Started $8,000,000 $36,000,000 Broad Green Pictures
12/15/2017 Ferdinand $20,000,000 $150,000,000 Fox
12/15/2017 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $215,000,000 $742,000,000 Disney
12/20/2017 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $22,000,000 NEW $175,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
12/22/2017 Downsizing $10,000,000 NEW $59,000,000 NEW Paramount
12/22/2017 Pitch Perfect 3 $40,000,000 NEW $136,000,000 NEW Universal
12/22/2017 Father Figures $7,000,000 NEW $41,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report

Boxoffice Staff

9 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Fredie October 27, 2017

    7.9x multiplier for Jumanji is too much, even if it’s Christmas time.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Taylor October 29, 2017

      It’s not too much considering the Wednesday release.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Roo November 06, 2017

        Best comparison from last year would be Sing ($35.26 million/$270.33 million total/7.67x multiplier).

        Reply
  2. Avatar
    Taylor October 27, 2017

    The PITCH PERFECT 3 opening is very optimistic and the overall sum is also big. Around $20 million for the 3-day and $100 million overall is my prediction.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    DangerS October 27, 2017

    I don’t think Jumanji will make it to $100 at all.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Daniel Scott October 28, 2017

    Goodwill?!?! Jumanji fans are LIVID about this!!

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    callum traynor October 29, 2017

    312 million for JL is so damn low you people really think its going to do less than SS and BVS, only 20 million more then Man of Steel?

    These estimates are laughable.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jeffo November 07, 2017

      First of all, it’s a Fall release – meaning it doesn’t have the advantage of Summer weekday ticket sales.

      Secondly, *so far,* Justice League has given the industry no evidence of being able to outgross Batman V Superman. That film left a very bad taste in audience’s mouths (for good reason), but it has thankfully been mitigated by Wonder Woman – the only watchable film DC has produced in years. The article clearly states that reviews (and, WoM) would sway the tracking higher or lower.

      $312 is fair for the moment, but it’ll likely change.

      Reply
  6. Avatar
    Simon Rowley November 01, 2017

    Jumanji is not an event movies it was 20 years ago. You slapped Spielberg’s name on a movie as exec and you had a hit. It will hit 100 but not 175.
    As for Justice League / Marvel etc etc. People are bored. Avengers worked because of all the characters coming together …. once. After that why doesn’t a superhero just call the rest of them to help him?
    As I said people are bored of the same releases every 3 months now which will shorten to every month soon

    Reply

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