Long Range Forecast: ‘Just Getting Started’ Set for Pre-‘Star Wars’ December Release; ‘Thor: Ragnarok’ Trends Upward

This week’s Long Range Forecast again focuses primarily on several shifting trends across films opening in the next few weeks, in addition to a first look at one title opening on December 8 — one week before the juggernaut that is sure to be Star Wars: The Last Jedi.

PROS:

  • Just Getting Started (Broad Green Pictures) brings together Morgan Freeman, Tommy Lee Jones, and Rene Russo in an action comedy that could appeal well to older audiences, ala the likes of Going In Style and Last Vegas. Reviews and distribution plans will be key to the film’s long term prospects, but as a counter-programming option in the heart of holiday season, we expect it to perform on par with the aforementioned titles.

CONS:

  • One of the bigger question marks around Just Getting Started will be its distributor’s release strategy. The studio is still finding its footing after the disappointing runs of Wish Upon over the summer and Bad Santa 2 last year. The hope is that this title will at least be able to perform well relative to its presumably low budget.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • October 20’s releases continue to indicate signs of opening within a close proximity to each other. The exception of Boo 2! A Madea Halloween remains relatively strong, although we still expect it to decline from the first Boo!‘s debut. Only the Brave‘s forecast has slightly decreased due to recent social media growth, however, early screenings this weekend could again shift things in its favor before next Friday.
  • Jigsaw continues to show improving signs ahead of release later this month.
  • Thor: Ragnarok‘s marketing campaign has heated up early, with unofficial word from industry screenings suggesting this is another Marvel title audiences are going to fall in love with. If official reviews surge into the stratosphere when the embargo lifts, this may be a forecast that continues climbing upward.

2-Month Long Range Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
10/20/2017 Geostorm $12,000,000 9% $27,800,000 9% 3,000 Warner Bros.
10/20/2017 Only the Brave $13,000,000 -7% $44,600,000 -7% 2,400 Sony / Columbia
10/20/2017 Same Kind of Different As Me $3,750,000 -6% $10,000,000 -6% 1,200 Pure Flix
10/20/2017 The Snowman $11,500,000 $34,700,000 2,800 Universal
10/20/2017 Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween $22,000,000 -8% $57,000,000 -2% 2,250 Lionsgate
10/27/2017 Jigsaw $15,000,000 11% $32,200,000 11% 3,000 Lionsgate
10/27/2017 Suburbicon $10,000,000 $32,000,000 2,900 Paramount
10/27/2017 Thank You for Your Service $5,000,000 $17,500,000 2,000 Universal
11/1/2017 A Bad Moms Christmas $22,000,000 $85,000,000 STXfilms
11/3/2017 Thor: Ragnarok $105,000,000 5% $269,000,000 8% Disney
11/10/2017 Daddy’s Home 2 $30,000,000 $95,000,000 Paramount
11/10/2017 Murder on the Orient Express $23,500,000 $88,000,000 Fox
11/17/2017 Justice League $150,000,000 $330,000,000 Warner Bros.
11/17/2017 The Star $13,000,000 $60,000,000 Sony / Columbia
11/17/2017 Wonder $16,000,000 $65,000,000 Lionsgate
11/22/2017 Coco $60,000,000 $270,000,000 Disney
11/22/2017 The Man Who Invented Christmas n/a NEW n/a NEW Bleecker Street
11/22/2017 Polaroid $2,500,000 $7,000,000 TWC / Dimension
12/1/2017 (no films scheduled currently)
12/8/2017 Just Getting Started $8,000,000 NEW $36,000,000 NEW Broad Green Pictures

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report

Boxoffice Staff

15 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Maxx October 13, 2017

    There is no way Coco will end up with the bigger box office than Thor: Ragnarok. I think it’ll do between $110M-$120M opening weekend with a $300M domestic total.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen October 13, 2017

      I think you could be right. Last weekend I saw Blade Runner 2049 in IMAX and the Ragnarok teaser (which has been out for, what, seven months now?) played before it and still got a big laugh at the end. I think the marketing has done a solid job of priming people for a fun film. If it delivers on the promise, Thor 3 could be not just the biggest in the trilogy, but one of the biggest in the MCU. Again, it has to deliver.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      RatBasterd October 15, 2017

      Pretty sure Thor does 150 open

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin October 17, 2017

      I agree that Thor 3’s opening will outdo Coco’s opening; however, Coco may have the upper hand provided that Thor 3’s multiplier is below 2.6x. Coco is a family movie that on average has a 4x multiplier while Thor 3 is a primarily front-loaded, but highly hyped movie. It really depends, but provided Thor 3’s opening doesn’t disappoint (it could, but that’s unlikely), Thor 3 has a high chance of out-grossing Coco.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Brad October 14, 2017

    I’m calling it early, Last Jedi $235/$1.0 bil. First billion dollar US movie. For the third year in a row, studios will be sorry for releasing around it, especially Jumanji.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Sander Broos October 16, 2017

      There really is no way it’s going to outdo The Force Awakens. That movie had literally everything going for it. I feel much less hype in general for The Last Jedi (of course it will be a massive hit, but I just don’t think it’ll be THAT big)

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin October 17, 2017

      The Last Jedi will certainly get an opening above $200 million, but I think it won’t hold as well as The Force Awakens. I’ll also add that studios can counterprogram Star Wars effectively if they release animated kids movies that are genuinely good. Ferdinand aims to do just that; now, it just needs the reviews. Even Pitch Perfect 3 has a chance to counterprogram Star Wars provided it connects well with its audience. Movies like Jumanji on the other hand will certainly struggle like Assassins Creed before it because it is competing for the primary audience of Star Wars, a battle which we all know who the victor is.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    Ben October 14, 2017

    I predict for the final four kahunas of 2017 (TR, JL, Coco and SW) will do this:
    Thor 3: 120/300
    JL: 175/350
    Coco: 60/225
    Star Wars: 210/825

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Brad October 14, 2017

      Star Wars will do 230/1 bil

      Reply
    • Avatar
      DangerS October 15, 2017

      Thor: $115M/$310M
      Justice League: $190M/$450M
      Coco: $55M/$240M
      The Last Jedi: $250M/$850M

      Reply
    • Avatar
      RatBasterd October 15, 2017

      Last Jed is doing 300m open/1.1b domestic

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    k October 14, 2017

    Whether people like it or not Justice League is definitely going to cross $400 million.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Zack Synder October 20, 2017

      no it isnt

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    agree October 15, 2017

    agree~

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Dan October 19, 2017

    Thor 3: $112/$256
    Justice League: $170/$390
    Coco: $50/$200
    Star Wars: $200/$602

    I feel Thor 3 will be a moderate hit domestically but the biggest Thor film World Wide. Justice League (assuming it gets good to moderate reviews) will be a big hit and may have a chance crossing the $400 Mil mark domestically and 1Billion worldwide. Coco will defiantly not be as big of a hit as people are pinning it to be mainly because of its release date and premise. Star Wars will be a big hit (of course) but will NOT out do The Force Awakens as there has been no where near as much hype as that movie and even Rogue One. I don’t see its world wide numbers being nearly as big as The Force Awakens either but it WILL most likely pass the billion dollar mark. Maybe 1.5 Billion is a safe bet.

    Reply

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