Long Range Forecast: ‘Justice League,’ ‘The Star,’ & ‘Wonder’

The fifth installment of Warner Bros.’ DC Extended Universe serves as the natural highlight among this week’s latest additions to the Long Range Forecast. Justice League won’t fly solo when debuts on November 17, though, as The Star and Wonder are also set to open that weekend in hopes of counter-programming against the superhero tentpole.

PROS:

  • Justice League (Warner Bros.) will unite key heroes from the DC universe with the promise of Batman, Wonder Woman, The Flash, Aquaman, Cyborg, and (presumably) Superman joining forces in their first film as a collective group. The previous DC universe films have generated major financial success thus far, although only Wonder Woman has enjoyed both box office supremacy and critical + audience adoration. The latter’s goodwill — on top of the fact that Batman is still one of the most bankable icons in film history — could allow some audiences to give League the benefit of the doubt. Fans are also very curious about what kind of influence Joss Whedon (The Avengers) will have had on the finished product since Zack Snyder stepped down during production following a family tragedy.
  • The Star (Sony / Columbia) will serve as this holiday season’s Christmas-centric animation with an eye toward faith-based audiences and families with young children. Having five days to itself before Pixar’s Coco opens will help it get a head start for what should be a leggy run through November and December.
  • Wonder (Lionsgate) should find a strong female audience on opening weekend as the film aims to parlay Raquel J. Palacio’s beloved 2012 dramatic children’s novel into cinematic success. Initial social media buzz is very encouraging as the film boasts over 234,000 Facebook fans before marketing has truly kicked in. This could be a sleeper to keep an eye on, especially if awards buzz follows.

CONS:

  • It’s no secret that Batman v Superman was received poorly by many fans, and that will be Justice League‘s biggest obstacle to overcome as the spiritual sequel to that film. In addition, opening in the third weekend of Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok could present even more challenges since this is the shortest competitive window in which DC and Marvel tentpoles have attempted to compete within against each another. As such, reviews and early fan reactions will be crucial to Justice League‘s long term prospects.
  • The Star will ultimately be relying on word of mouth to manufacture a solid holiday run, something that could be moderately challenging with Coco opening five days later. Awareness is fairly low at this stage with little activity across Facebook and Twitter. As such, we’re expecting a run more in line with the likes of Arthur Christmas and Happy Feet Two at this time and some modest ability to co-exist with the Pixar film.
  • Wonder hasn’t generated much buzz among Twitter users recently, but that could easily change when marketing ramps up in early November.

This Week’s Notes & Other Changes

  • Recent marketing for The Mountain Between Us has livened up social media activity. Trends remain at about half the overall pace of last year’s The Girl on the Train, but Kate Winslet and Idris Elba should still provide solid appeal to adults.

The Long Range Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
9/29/2017 American Made $16,000,000 $54,000,000 3,000 Universal
9/29/2017 Flatliners (2017) $12,000,000 $29,000,000 2,200 Sony / Screen Gems
9/29/2017 A Question of Faith n/a n/a n/a Pure Flix
9/29/2017 Til Death Do Us Part n/a n/a n/a Novus
10/6/2017 Blade Runner 2049 $44,000,000 $115,000,000 3,800 Warner Bros.
10/6/2017 The Mountain Between Us $11,500,000 44% $36,000,000 44% 3,100 Fox
10/6/2017 My Little Pony (2017) $7,500,000 $21,500,000 2,100 Lionsgate
10/13/2017 The Foreigner $10,000,000 $27,700,000 STXfilms
10/13/2017 Happy Death Day $20,000,000 $40,000,000 Universal / Blumhouse
10/13/2017 Marshall $12,000,000 $39,000,000 Open Road
10/13/2017 Professor Marston & the Wonder Woman n/a n/a Annapurna Pictures
10/20/2017 Geostorm $12,000,000 $27,800,000 Warner Bros.
10/20/2017 Only the Brave $16,000,000 $55,000,000 Sony / Columbia
10/20/2017 Same Kind of Different As Me $4,500,000 $12,000,000 Pure Flix
10/20/2017 The Snowman $11,000,000 $31,000,000 Universal
10/20/2017 Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween $23,500,000 $59,300,000 Lionsgate
10/27/2017 Jigsaw $10,000,000 $21,600,000 Lionsgate
10/27/2017 Suburbicon $14,000,000 $45,000,000 Paramount
10/27/2017 Thank You for Your Service $5,000,000 $17,500,000 Universal
11/1/2017 A Bad Moms Christmas $22,000,000 $85,000,000 STXfilms
11/3/2017 Thor: Ragnarok $100,000,000 $250,000,000 Disney
11/10/2017 Daddy’s Home 2 $30,000,000 $95,000,000 Paramount
11/10/2017 Murder on the Orient Express $23,500,000 $84,600,000 Fox
11/17/2017 Justice League $150,000,000 NEW $330,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
11/17/2017 The Star $13,000,000 NEW $60,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
11/17/2017 Wonder $16,000,000 NEW $60,000,000 NEW Lionsgate

For media requests pertaining to our forecasts, please contact Shawn Robbins

Boxoffice Staff

22 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Malik A. September 22, 2017

    If Justice League doesn’t make a billion dollars, it’ll be a failure in my eyes.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Brandon September 22, 2017

      The movie will make a billion easy. But if it doesn’t the only reason will be star wars.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      navtej singh September 22, 2017

      no

      Reply
    • Avatar
      SkaiWolka September 23, 2017

      No.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Maxx September 23, 2017

      Yep. I agree. $1B or it’s a big disappointment. But then again, I have no faith in the DCEU so making less wouldn’t be a shock.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      patrik September 24, 2017

      No comic adaption have made 1 billion this year.
      And i think the genre is going to make less and less oversea.

      Wonder woman with great review did not make 1B (made more domestically)
      Spiderman Homecoming did have iron man and still didn’t make 1B
      Guardians of the galaxy 2 many belived was going to make 1B and it didn’t.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Spiderman September 25, 2017

      It wont do anywhere near $1bn.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    DangerS September 22, 2017

    Both Ragnarok and Justice League will make more. These projections seem way too low.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    John Shutt September 22, 2017

    Still way too low on American Made with the fantastic reviews and Kingsman getting panned. Expect an overperformance next weekend of at least $22 million

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    John Shutt September 22, 2017

    Still way too low on American Made. $20 million minimum is what it will make next weekend. Cruise is still a draw, reviews are excellent and poor reception from Kingsman will only help it

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    John September 22, 2017

    Still too low on American Made. Cruise’s drawing power, excellent reviews and poor reception for Kingsman will only help it next weekend. $20 million minimum and possibly even $25 million

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    Joe Daniels September 22, 2017

    Justice League will easily be $175 – 200 million in its opening weekend. It will also go on to gross $400+ million. It’s coming off the hype of Wonder Woman with Joss Whedon & Zack Snyder at the wheel!

    Also, BvS made $330 million on bad reviews. imagine Wonder Woman-esque reviews.. It’ll be HUGE!!

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    J September 22, 2017

    About right for Justice League, but if it has good reviews(at least better than Man of steel), it could do 170 million. Thor Ragnarok looks great, and with the trailers being amazing, it could do up to 120 million.

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    james September 22, 2017

    Only 2,200 screens for Flatliners, not good. Under, 10 million weekend feels more like it.

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    bp September 23, 2017

    100 for Thor and 150 for JL doesn’t sound unbelievable but Thor trailers have more views and Thor was voted as the most anticipated fall movie while JL was second.I don’t know.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      gp October 07, 2017

      It’s dumb that you think Thor ragnarok will make more money than JL.(also Marvel releases their trailer in a single channel WB releases them in many.That accounts for the views.)

      Reply
  10. Avatar
    Eugene A Lee September 24, 2017

    If Justice league can’t hit $1 billion, people need to get fired and mediate reboot. Fast and Furious, Marvel, and Universal burp out $ billion movies like it’s nothing.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      A.A. Roi October 01, 2017

      Really, then how come Dr. Strange, GotG2, Spiderman and the upcoming Thor3 & Black Panther have failed/will fail to hit a billion if Marvel burps out billion dollar movies like it’s nothing?

      Reply
  11. Avatar
    Thedude3445 September 24, 2017

    Daddy’s Home 2 is too high, I think. Comedy sequels aren’t usually good at succeeding and I think the competition from Bad Moms Christmas will ruin it. I know the forecast right now is already a fifty-percent drop from the original but I don’t think adding Jon Voight and Mel Gibson will prevent it from collapsing.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jon September 25, 2017

      You Meant John Lithgow

      Reply
  12. Avatar
    A Girl Has No Name September 30, 2017

    Blade Runner 2049: $60M | $240M
    Thor Ragnarok: $115M | $310M
    Justice League: $195M | $465M

    Reply
  13. Avatar
    starboy September 30, 2017

    what a dumb forecast $330 for justice league. LOL. justice league willl kill it in the boxoffice. at worst case scenario justice league will finish not less than $370 and at best will finish around $470-$570. gadd dammn freaking suicide squad finish with $325 with “bad” reviews. what the fckk is a freaking suicide squad compared to the gadd damn justice league. think about it! a bad reviewed justice league movie by that shitty rotten tomator site will still beat suicide squad and batvsup easily. can’t believe this boxoffice site is relying their prediction on some rotten tomato site. pathetic.

    Reply

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