Long Range Forecast: ‘King Arthur: Legend of the Sword’ & ‘Snatched’

This week, our Long Range Forecast is joined by two wide releases slated to open on May 12: King Arthur: Legend of the Sword and Snatched.

Director Guy Ritchie returns with another uniquely stylized period film aiming for mainstream success following 2015’s The Man from U.N.C.L.E. and his very successful two Sherlock Holmes films. Initial trailers have offered up the kind of frenetic energy fans have come to expect from Ritchie’s work, making it well-placed for an early summer release. Timing is crucial, though, and opening against the second weekend of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 is the opposite of an enviable task. Much like Ridley Scott’s Robin Hood opened one week after Iron Man 2 in May 2010, Legend of the Sword will be catering mainly to adult male crowds interested in the filmmaker’s take on the classic character.

For the ladies, Amy Schumer returns with her second feature film as the leading star following her success with 2015’s Trainwreck. Goldie Hawn’s motherly role to Schumer’s character should make this an appealing option for mothers and daughters over Mother’s Day weekend. Pre-release buzz at this time is comparable to that of Melissa McCarthy vehicles Tammy and The Boss.

This Week’s Changes & Other Additions

  • CHiPS continues to struggle building buzz ahead of next week’s opening, particularly on Twitter. Its saving grace remains the fact that comedies have been few and far between so far this year, but our expectations remain quite modest.
  • Life has gained a bit of momentum of this week thanks to solid industry tracking and social media activity. Our primary concern for it remains the heavy amount of competition that will still exist in the market when it opens next week.
  • Ghost In the Shell has lost some momentum in overall male and female interest this week, although that could easily be a temporary effect caused by the crowding March market.
  • BH Tilt’s Lowriders is also slated to open on May 12, but we’re holding off on forecasts until its release strategy is confirmed.

Check out our forecasts for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
3/24/2017 CHiPS $10,000,000 -26% $31,000,000 -30% 3,000 Warner Bros.
3/24/2017 Life (2017) $16,000,000 14% $50,000,000 7% 3,000 Sony / Columbia
3/24/2017 Power Rangers $38,000,000 $110,000,000 3,800 Lionsgate
3/31/2017 The Boss Baby $24,000,000 $83,000,000 3,800 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
3/31/2017 Ghost in the Shell (2017) $37,000,000 -8% $95,000,000 -10% 3,400 Paramount / DreamWorks
4/7/2017 The Case for Christ $3,500,000 $14,000,000 Pure Flix
4/7/2017 Going In Style (2017) $12,500,000 $49,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
4/7/2017 Smurfs: The Lost Village $21,500,000 $78,500,000 Sony / Columbia
4/14/2017 The Fate of the Furious $110,000,000 $264,000,000 Universal
4/14/2017 Spark $3,000,000 $7,500,000 Open Road
4/21/2017 Born in China $5,500,000 $19,000,000 Disneynature
4/21/2017 Free Fire $8,000,000 $24,000,000 A24
4/21/2017 LEAP! $6,000,000 $19,000,000 The Weinstein Company
4/21/2017 The Promise $2,250,000 $4,000,000 Open Road Films
4/21/2017 Unforgettable $10,000,000 $23,500,000 Warner Bros.
4/28/2017 The Circle $13,000,000 $40,000,000 STX Entertainment
4/28/2017 How to Be a Latin Lover $6,500,000 $23,000,000 Lionsgate
4/28/2017 Sleight $5,000,000 $11,000,000 BH Tilt
5/5/2017 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $160,000,000 $400,000,000 Disney
5/12/2017 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword $23,000,000 NEW $67,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
5/12/2017 Lowriders n/a NEW n/a NEW BH Tilt
5/12/2017 Snatched $25,000,000 NEW $85,000,000 NEW Fox

Shawn Robbins, Alex Edghill, and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

6 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Sterling Archer March 17, 2017

    Thinking Snatched does more like $17 million and roughly only $50 million at the box office. This is going to be Amy Schumer’s first big bomb. Everybody is getting sick of her.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Junior March 20, 2017

      You getting sick of Her,I can see that.
      But that doesn’t mean you opinion represent what everybody else’s thinking!!

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Michael March 19, 2017

    You honestly think Snatched is going to open with that much? Yeah right! The trailer was awful, nobody in the theater laughed when it came on. Easy to see this bombing like Hot Pursuit.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      KN March 21, 2017

      I was also really suprised to see BoxOffice’s forecast after I saw the trailer. Is the estimated based on Amy’s current popularity?

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    Don't Mind Me Now March 19, 2017

    I’m struggling to see GHOST IN THE SHELL even finishing at $37 million, never mind opening that high. The trailer is basically incomprehensible to anyone unfamiliar with the manga or anime, and the stuff that’s on display is not of the sort you use to bring in a four-quad audience. LUCY is not a comparable title here. LUCY had an easily explainable hook to ground the craziness of its trailers. GITS, for general audiences, has nothing. It’s an eclectic array of confusion. Hell, I *have* seen the anime and I’m confused by some of the stuff in the trailers. Audiences don’t know what to make of this, and the obvious comparisons coming to mind here are CLOUD ATLAS and JUPITER ASCENDING.

    Speaking of the Wachowskis, their big-scale anime adaptation, SPEED RACER – which was much more casual-viewer-friendly – was a colossal dud back in 2008. The only other big live-action U.S. anime adaptation, DRAGONBALL EVOLUTION was also a disaster. Anime adaptations, regardless of format, have a worse record of success in the States than even video game adaptations. Throw in the fact that the primary narrative surrounding GITS is a whitewashing controversy, which is likely to derail potential positive word of mouth, and this film is looking DOA. I’m betting somewhere around a $10-13 million opening, $26-$30 million finish.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      theBigE March 19, 2017

      I agree with you on GITS. Is there much interest outside the fanboy circle?

      Reply

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