Long Range Forecast: ‘Kingsman: The Golden Circle’ & ‘The LEGO Ninjago Movie’

Arguably Fall’s first big weekend offering something for everyone will land on Friday, September 22 with the release of two franchise properties aiming to court very different audiences. Our first look at how the films are tracking so far:

Kingsman: The Golden Circle
Fox

PROS:

  • The first film was a bona fide hit that successfully counter-programmed the Fifty Shades of Grey juggernaut over Valentine’s weekend in 2015. Earning $36 million that weekend and $128 million domestically overall, the charming sleeper hit built a solid fan base out of an already existing one from its graphic novel origins.
  • The return of key cast members Taron Egerton, Colin Firth, and Marc Strong combined with the inclusion of Channing Tatum, Julianne Moore, Jeff Bridges, and Elton John should increase appeal of the Brit-heavy cast to American audiences. Matthew Vaughn’s return behind the camera is also an encouraging sign, marking his first sequel as director following hits like the original KingsmanX-Men: First Class, and the original Kick-Ass.
  • Reactions to the film’s first trailers have been very positive. Social media was a major component of the first film’s pre-release buzz and that looks to be the case again here.
  • After what appears to be a weak end of summer slate, audiences should be hungry for a high profile film of this nature come the first day of autumn.

CONS:

  • As past franchises like Kick-Ass and Sin City have shown, it’s very difficult for graphic novel adaptations (or most genres, really) to capture lightning in a bottle twice. Even if reviews are strong, American crowds eager for something “fresh” may not have the same feelings toward this sequel as they did for the original.
  • Although plenty of films have proven the year-round calendar is viable for varying ranges of box office success, nevertheless, mid-to-late September is still a challenging window for films to exceed expectations.
  • Competition in the weeks after release could be challenging with American Made and Blade Runner 2049 set to open in the film’s second and third weekend, respectively.

The LEGO Ninjago Movie
Warner Bros.

PROS:

  • The fantastic success of both The LEGO Movie and this year’s LEGO Batman Movie have proven the LEGO brand is more than viable as a franchise film player.
  • The sub-brand component here — that being Ninjago — is fairly popular among young boys, which could make this a solid choice for father/son matinees (in addition to the usual family appeal).
  • Another all-star cast of comedy talents should help appeal to parents, especially after a drought of big animated films in late summer.

CONS:

  • Social media activity on this entry hasn’t been as ecstatic as that of the previous LEGO movies, particularly on Facebook where momentum is currently lukewarm at best. That could change closer to release, though.
  • Franchise fatigue exists within animated franchises as well as any others. Will teens and parents view this as a fresh comedy for all ages or “just another LEGO movie”?

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • Unfortunately, pre-release buzz for The Dark Tower has yet to heat up online. Considering the built-in fan base, that’s a concerning sign ahead of release next week.
  • Detroit is generating strong reactions from critics and remains poised to serve as a counter-programming option with timely subject matter. We’re increasingly encouraged by its long-term potential, but remain cautious due to its marketing reach and release from a non-major studio.
  • We’re continuing to hold off on forecasts for mother! until a trailer is released.
  • Scheduled to open September 22 alongside, Friend Request is another wide release title we’re withholding public forecasts for given the limited history of its distributor, Entertainment Studios.

The Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
8/4/2017 The Dark Tower $28,000,000 -15% $71,000,000 -15% 3,200 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 Detroit $13,000,000 $41,000,000 32% 2,300 Annapurna Pictures
8/4/2017 Kidnap $4,000,000 $9,000,000 2,200 Aviron
8/11/2017 Annabelle: Creation $27,000,000 $61,000,000 3,200 Warner Bros. / New Line
8/11/2017 The Glass Castle $3,500,000 $10,500,000 2,000 Lionsgate
8/11/2017 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature $12,000,000 $40,000,000 3,250 Open Road
8/18/2017 The Adventurers n/a NEW n/a NEW Well Go USA
8/18/2017 The Hitman’s Bodyguard $19,000,000 $57,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
8/18/2017 Logan Lucky $12,000,000 $39,000,000 Bleecker Street
8/25/2017 All Saints $4,000,000 $12,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/25/2017 Birth of the Dragon $2,500,000 $5,500,000 BH Tilt
8/25/2017 Crown Heights n/a n/a Amazon Studio / IFC Films
8/25/2017 A Gentleman n/a n/a FIP
8/25/2017 Leap! $4,500,000 $15,800,000 The Weinstein Company
8/25/2017 Tulip Fever n/a n/a Weinstein Company
9/1/2017 Unlocked n/a n/a Lionsgate Premiere
9/8/2017 Home Again $12,000,000 $45,000,000 Open Road Films
9/8/2017 It $40,000,000 $100,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
9/15/2017 All I See Is You $6,500,000 $15,600,000 Open Road
9/15/2017 American Assassin $10,000,000 $25,000,000 Lionsgate
9/15/2017 mother! n/a n/a Paramount
9/22/2017 Friend Request n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
9/22/2017 Kingsman: The Golden Circle $39,000,000 NEW $100,000,000 NEW Fox
9/22/2017 The LEGO Ninjago Movie $40,000,000 NEW $138,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

13 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Taylor July 28, 2017

    The forecast for Kingsman 2 is a little optimistic. Maybe $30 million/$90 million like Baby Driver’s 5-day opening and a bit shy from its total.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Jordan July 28, 2017

    Dude if kingsman gets good reviews it’s gonna open in the 50-60 range and be a little less leggy than its predecessor so I suspect a 150-160 total any thoughts??

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Ben July 28, 2017

      Totally agree I think ninjago will do about storks level and Kingsman 2 will most likely be great and be huge

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Jordan July 28, 2017

        Yeah Ben good call I just think that the hype for this movie is far bigger than the hype for the original so there’s no way there gonna open the same! I think kingsman could even get 180 by the end of its run if the reviews are good! What did storks open with?

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Ben July 29, 2017

          About 20 and made it to seventy, ninjago will probably be about 20-30 and finish around 70-80. Kingsman 1 was big at the box office and huge on streaming with a big cult following. Plus this is a not as competitive time and it will most likely be great. I predict 50-60 opening and 140-175 total

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Jordan July 29, 2017

            Wow storks opened that low! At least it had decent legs and yeah it’s got a perfect 2 week gap between it and blade runner which is good cause lets be real American assassin is no competion

  3. Avatar
    Matt D. July 28, 2017

    Still too low on It & American Assassin. It will open to maybe over $50+ opening and finish around $110-130 hopefully since it is the first wide released horror film this fall. I also think American Assassin will perform like the first John wick make about $15 M opening weekend and finish around $45 M. Also too low on Kingsman and too high on Ninjago. Kingsman will come out when the hype for It is starting to die down so it will help it. I think it will open to $60-65M and finish around $140-150 M. Also with Ninjago another LEGO film this year, The LEGO Batman Movie underperformed from what people were expecting which was projected to finish somewhere in the $200+ range in its domestic total but finished at $175 M domestically. Also with The LEGO Batman Movie & The LEGO Movie, those films can be aimed at the whole family and was based on well known source material (LEGOs for both films and Batman for his own movie) while The LEGO Ninjago Movie isn’t well known as Batman but is more known by kids 5-10 years old. I think the film will open to around $25-28 M and finish around $75-95 M.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin July 28, 2017

      My thought are below:
      I don’t think The Dark Tower will perform rather poorly ($25 million or below) unless the reviews are not good. I understand that the previews offer nothing to potential viewers (including myself), but with a built-in fan base to back it up, I think The Dark Tower will get a $30 million opening only to drop 60% or more the week after.
      In the face of great early reviews, Lucky Logan could shoot for $15-20 million. All Saints is too low (It could score an $8 million opening).
      If It can score great reviews, it could earn a $45 million opening or more and maybe surpass Conjuring 2 from last year.
      American Assassin would be lucky to open to $15 million rather than $10 million. In order for it to compete with Kingsman 2, it has to gain better reviews and get an R-rating to go with that. As American Assassin is based off a book, failing any of the two aforementioned qualities could doom it to not only open to $10 million or less, but also a 55% or larger drop the week after when its core audience watches Kingsman 2 instead.
      Earning great reviews is a must for Kingsman 2, and if they’re high enough, Kingsman 2 could easily surpass $45 million. However, no matter what the case may be, Kingsman 2 won’t hold like the first one and may even fall below it regardless.
      The Lego Ninjago Movie is part of a Lego Cinematic Universe, which is enough to earn it a $37 million opening despite some unfamiliarity because of how reliable the Lego movies have been so far. Reviews akin to Lego Batman, which is a possibility at this point, could cause this movie to have a tight race with Kingsman 2.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      DangerS August 04, 2017

      IT could open anywhere between $50-60 million unless it completely sucks. I can see it finishing with $130-150 million. Worldwide it will do $350-400 million. Its budget shouldn’t be more than $40-50 million so it will be a huge hit.

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    jess D July 28, 2017

    I thought the first “Kingsman” movie was a surprising enjoyable delight. “Kingsman 2” is one of only a few fall films I am anxiously awaiting especially after I saw the trailer with the Sinatra song in it. Hope everyone gets hyped up for it.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jordan July 29, 2017

      Yep same here over that trailer should love kingsman to have great success maybe a 160-170 total!

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    navtej singh July 29, 2017

    i can see Annabelle doing little better considering reviews are good till now and there have been no horror movie this summer as compared to last year when we had conjuring 2, lights out and don’t breathe
    if IT get good reviews it’s gonna CRUSH the shit out of 40m and let me throw bold prediction out there, it will gross close to 200m domestic

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    DangerS July 29, 2017

    For It I think
    OW: $55M
    Total: $135-140M

    Reply

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