Long Range Forecast: ‘Leap!,’ ‘Renegades’ Set for Labor Day; ‘War for the Planet of the Apes,’ ‘Dunkirk,’ & More Updates

This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast takes a first look at September, which is currently slated to see two new wide releases in Leap! and Renegades.

PROS:

  • Leap! (The Weinstein Company) is positioned to offer families an animated option over Labor Day weekend. The film has performed fairly well overseas, notably in its home country of France. The studio delayed its North American release earlier this year to capitalize on positive reviews in a less competitive market at the end of summer.
  • Renegades (STX Entertainment) will hope to buck the trend of under-performing action/thrillers that have opened at the end of summer in recent years. Star J.K. Simmons is the best bet toward attracting the film’s target adult male audience.

CONS:

  • Leap! is driving minimal social media engagement up to this point with a mere 2,300+ likes on its Facebook page and muted Twitter activity. The recent history of Labor Day openers in the states — as well as the fact that most kids will be going back to school around that time — work against the film’s prospects.
  • Likewise, Renegades also has history against it (as mentioned) in terms of past Labor Day releases. Social media conversation is similarly muted for that film as well.

Other Notes & Changes

  • Although the film is earning rave reviews and looks to be another sure fire success in the franchise, social media trends and potential audience overlap with surrounding competition for War for the Planet of the Apes are bringing down our expectations slightly.
  • Traditional industry tracking for Dunkirk is more conservative right now due to the film’s nature as an original film, as well as surrounding competition remaining a factor for immediate interest/awareness. However, social media buzz remains far more robust than that of Interstellar (although likely boosted somewhat by Harry Styles fans and U.K. audiences). We expect general audience interest to steadily increase over the next two weeks, particularly after the review embargo drops on Monday, July 17.
  • Girls Trip is trending very well on both Facebook and Twitter, pointing to signs of a strong counter-programmer against the weekend’s male-heavy releases.
  • Valerian continues to give us pause with mixed tracking signals and direct competition against the trifecta of Spider-Man: HomecomingWar for the Planet of the Apes, and Dunkirk.
  • Lionsgate Premiere has also slated Unlocked to open on Friday, September 1, however we are excluding it from the forecast due to its nature as a hybrid VOD-theatrical release.

The 8-Week Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
7/14/2017 The Big Sick (Wide Expansion) n/a n/a n/a Lionsgate
7/14/2017 War for the Planet of the Apes $51,000,000 -15% $140,000,000 -15% 3,800 Fox
7/14/2017 Wish Upon $8,500,000 $19,500,000 2,500 Broad Green Pictures
7/21/2017 Dunkirk $50,000,000 -13% $208,000,000 -13% 3,700 Warner Bros.
7/21/2017 Girls Trip $19,000,000 12% $67,000,000 12% 2,900 Universal
7/21/2017 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $18,500,000 -23% $54,000,000 -23% 3,200 STX Entertainment
7/28/2017 Atomic Blonde $27,500,000 $82,500,000 Focus Features
7/28/2017 The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself $27,000,000 $95,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 The Dark Tower $42,000,000 $107,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 Detroit n/a n/a Annapurna Pictures
8/4/2017 An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power n/a n/a Paramount
8/4/2017 Kidnap $5,000,000 $12,000,000 Aviron
8/11/2017 Annabelle: Creation $27,000,000 $61,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
8/11/2017 The Glass Castle $3,500,000 $10,500,000 Lionsgate
8/11/2017 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature $12,000,000 $40,000,000 Open Road
8/18/2017 The Hitman’s Bodyguard $19,000,000 $57,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
8/18/2017 Logan Lucky $12,000,000 $39,000,000 Bleecker Street
8/25/2017 All Saints $4,000,000 $12,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/25/2017 Birth of the Dragon $2,500,000 $5,500,000 BH Tilt
8/25/2017 Crown Heights n/a n/a Amazon Studio / IFC Films
8/25/2017 Polaroid $9,000,000 $23,500,000 TWC / Dimension
8/25/2017 Tulip Fever n/a n/a Weinstein Company
8/30/2017 Leap! $4,500,000 NEW $15,800,000 NEW The Weinstein Company
9/1/2017 Renegades $4,000,000 NEW $9,500,000 NEW STX Entertainment
9/1/2017 Unlocked n/a NEW n/a NEW Lionsgate Premiere

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

9 Comments

  1. Avatar
    J July 07, 2017

    Dunkirk too high, War too low. Also, Girls Trip too high(Rough Night anyone), The Emoji Movie too high and Atomic Blonde too high.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin July 07, 2017

      I think Dunkirk is now too low, but there are signs that it may not be as leggy as anticipated.
      Apes should be able to reach $70 million unless franchise fatigue is affecting it too. It should be a powerful diversion from Superhero films that have taken up too much attention, but is still part of a franchise that keeps on surprising. I guess we’ll see in a week, but at this point, it’s more likely to score a $60-70 million weekend with $70 million as max and drop steeply in the face of Dunkirk.
      The one problem with the increase for Girls Trip is that the social media activity cited here is not based on similar films like Rough Night. These expectations are a bit too high, but spacing it apart well from Wonder Woman and tapping into a slightly different demographic could get the film to a $10-15 million opening.
      Valerian is no Star Trek and is falling victim to the other films before it taking away its audience. It’s looking to be the King Arthur of this July with a $15-20 million opening and a sharp but standard drop the week after.
      If its reviews were more convincing, Atomic Blonde could earn $25 million upon opening. Unfortunately, it appears more likely to get a $15-20 million opening instead with a maximum of $22 million possible.
      The Emoji Movie is a knockoff from Sony Animation (the #1 name in pandering to family audiences) of the masterpiece Inside Out. With almost inevitable bad reviews and coming off the heals of a flop, it aims for around $20 million, but nothing more except the potential to underperform.
      All Saints is too low (Sony is more successful with faith-based film now than Pure Flix) and I’m expecting an $8-10 million debut.
      The new predictions, I believe, are spot on.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Matteo D. July 07, 2017

    Still think Apes will open to at least $70-80 M since it is one of the only blockbusters this summer besides Guardians, Wonder Woman and Spider-Man to get over 80% on Rotten Tomatoes which was needed more this summer. I think Dunkirk will open lower than expected but will make minimal drops which will make it a sleeper hit.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen July 07, 2017

      I could see Apes3 opening lower and in second place for its debut, based on the factors mentioned in the article as well as the grim tone/subject coming a week after Homecoming. But that wouldn’t be a bad thing. Fury Road had similarly ecstatic reviews, a less-than-happy story/environment, an R-rating… and opened with 45 mil on its way to 150. An opening in the first weekend of August (like the first film in the trilogy, if I remember right) might have guaranteed a stronger start and overall result, but we’ll see if positive word and anticipation can overcome this site’s concerns.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Matteo D. July 07, 2017

        I like your idea too. I also started thinking of when Kong: Skull Island opened. I remember a week before the film came out that it was D.O.A. with Logan killing its box office potential (Kind of like Spider-Man: Homecoming). But when Kong opened, it opened stronger than expected with Logan still making decent money. I was think the same with this film. Time will tell with my prediction but I hope the best for Apes and Spider-Man.

        Reply
  3. Avatar
    Kenneth July 07, 2017

    The Dark Tower will probably flop hard

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin July 10, 2017

      The Dark Tower has a budget of $60 million, so Sony better hope that these estimates hold in order for them to profit. The estimates probably will hold, but the movie most likely will be front-loaded and fall sharply. From there, reviews will be a critical factor.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen July 10, 2017

      Yeah, Dark Tower is dismaying. I was a King fan back when the first book was relatively unheard of, and finding/reading it was something of a rite of passage for my circle of friends. I always thought it would make an interesting movie series, thought Idris Elba was an inspired choice, and loved the idea of the movie being a sequel to the final book in the series. But that trailer… eh. It’s just not very inspiring, either in what is shown or how it’s shown. The teaser poster was solid, but it seems like the company just kind of gave up on DT after the poster. Austin notes the (relatively) low budget, and the price tag could be the saving grace. If it does 40-50 mil total US and 80-100 mil outside, that won’t be too bad for them. Still, I can’t help but feel a wave of disappointment emanating from the product and feel that it might represent a one-and-done journey into King’s fantasy world.

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    dsa,f July 08, 2017

    Can’t believe how low you guys are putting “Apes”. The last entry grossed much more than its predecessor and the reviews are glowing.

    Reply

Leave reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *