Long Range Forecast: ‘Rock Dog,’ ‘Get Out’

Note: when originally publishing this article, we mixed up our numbers for ‘Rock Dog’ and ‘Get Out.’ The table at bottom has since been corrected with our current predictions. Boxoffice Pro regrets the error.

The month of February will end with two new titles: Lionsgate’s animated Rock Dog and Universal’s horror Get Out. Will they “rock” the box office or “get out” of the top slots?

Rock Dog (Lionsgate)

PROS:

  • The animated film about an animal who wants to make it music — in this case as a rock star — is similar to December’s Sing and 2006’s Happy Feet. Both were box office successes, with $123.6 million and counting after only nine days to date for the former, and $198.0 million cumulative for the latter. (On the other hand, audiences could tire of the concept, especially a mere two months after Sing.)

CONS:

  • The film takes place in China and stars a Tibetan Mastiff dog, a Chinese breed. Financed in large part by Chinese production companies, the film was a box office bomb in that country after earning the U.S. equivalent of only $5.7 million. Can it do that much better in the U.S., especially facing competition from the animated expected smash The LEGO Batman Movie two weeks earlier?

Get Out (Universal)

PROS:

  • Blumhouse Productions is the producer behind this horror film, about a man who starts to suspect eerie goings-on at his girlfriend’s parents’ house when he visits there for the first time. The horror production company has had several decent horror hits in recent years on relatively low budgets, including the Paranormal Activity franchise, the Insidious trilogy, and 2015’s The Visit with $65.2 million.

CONS:

  • Jordan Peele, one half of modern legend comedy duo Key & Peele, couldn’t attract audiences as an actor with his April film Keanu, a box office dud with only $20.5 million. What are the odds he’ll be able to attract audiences behind the camera instead as a writer-director? Besides, February 2017 will be an incredibly busy month for horror at the box office, with Rings and an as-yet-untitled horror film on February 3, plus A Cure for Wellness and Patient Zero on February 17. Split, a late January release, could still potentially be making some money by late February if it holds on well.

Check out the official Boxoffice Pro long range forecast in the table below.

Title Wide Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Rock Dog Fri, Feb 24 Lionsgate $3,000,000 $8,000,000
Get Out Fri, Feb 24 Universal  $20,000,000  $56,000,000
The Great Wall Fri, Feb 17 Universal $34,000,000* $68,000,000
Fist Fight Fri, Feb 17 Warner Bros. $25,000,000* $63,000,000
A Cure For Wellness Fri, Feb 17 Fox $13,500,000* $35,000,000
Patient Zero Fri, Feb 17 Sony / Columbia $8,500,000* $19,000,000
Fifty Shades Darker Fri, Feb 10 Universal $41,000,000 $83,000,000
The LEGO Batman Movie Fri, Feb 10 Warner Bros. $56,000,000 $210,000,000
John Wick: Chapter Two Fri, Feb 10 Lionsgate $20,000,000 $45,000,000
Rings Fri, Feb 3 Paramount $19,000,000 $45,000,000
The Space Between Us Fri, Feb 3 STX Entertainment $7,000,000 $20,000,000
Same Kind of Different as Me Fri, Feb 3 Paramount $4,500,000 $12,000,000
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter Fri, Jan 27 Sony / Screen Gems $24,000,000 $52,000,000
A Dog’s Purpose Fri, Jan 27 Universal $16,000,000 $65,000,000
Bastards Fri, Jan 27 Warner Bros. $8,000,000 $22,000,000
Gold Fri, Jan 27 Weinstein Company $7,000,000 $22,000,000
xXx: The Return of Xander Gage Fri, Jan 20 Paramount $32,000,000 $72,000,000
Split Fri, Jan 20 Universal $16,000,000 $45,000,000
The Founder Fri, Jan 20 Weinstein $9,500,000 $39,000,000
The Resurrection of Gavin Stone Fri, Jan 20 High Top Releasing $1,400,000 $3,000,000
Live By Night Fri, Jan 13 Warner Bros. $15,000,000* $35,000,000
Patriots Day Fri, Jan 13 Lionsgate $23,500,000* $78,000,000
Sleepless Fri, Jan 13 Open Road Films $13,000,000* $42,000,000
Monster Trucks Fri, Jan 13 Paramount $12,000,000* $22,000,000
The Bye Bye Man Fri, Jan 13 STX Entertainment $8,000,000* $17,000,000
Underworld: Blood Wars Fri, Jan 6 Sony / Screen Gems $17,000,000 $42,000,000
Amityville: The Awakening Fri, Jan 6 Weinstein / Dimension $8,000,000 $17,000,000
Hidden Figures Fri, Jan 6 Fox $11,000,000 $43,000,000

*= 4-day weekend, Friday-Monday, referring to Martin Luther King Day in January or Presidents Day in February.

Shawn Robbins and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

8 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Taylor December 30, 2016

    I recently watched the trailer for Get Out and it was just awful.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Michael December 30, 2016

    Man.. where on Earth do you guys get your calculations from? $3 million opening only for Get Out??? The movie has one of the few buzzes in that month of releases. Almost everybody I talk to saw the trailer and liked it.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Don't Mind Me Now December 30, 2016

    I’m sorry, but what drugs are you taking to think Rock Dog is gonna make $56 million? It looks like a cheap piece of shit, and audiences, dumb as they are, can tell the differences between theatrical animation and direct-to-video quality garbage. Between Sing having already capitalized off the same basic concept, and LEGO Batman eating up the family demographic (and presumably being a vastly superior film), this is going to do Norm of the North business.

    Get Out, by contrast, seems to be underestimated here. It’s getting a lot of buzz, one of the stars (who has no other noticeable sources of public attention) just made the most anticipated stars of 2017 list, and it could benefit off of the likely disappointments of A Cure for Wellness and the certain failure of Patient Zero.

    And that prediction for Great Wall is way too high in general. Expect Warcraft numbers at best.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Don't Mind Me Now December 30, 2016

      Also, you’re taking way too long to remove Amityville: The Awakening from the release schedule.

      Additionally, you seem to be predicting Rings will have better holds than John Wick: Chapter Two, which is utter nonsense. Rings will almost certainly be extremely frontloaded ($9 million opening, $18 million finish), while John Wick 2 should hold well given a lack of direct-demographic competition ($18 million opening, $45 million finish). An unwanted, long-delayed and (presumably) critically-trashed horror picture, without the benefit of Halloween (a la the first Ouija), will not survive past opening weekend.

      Reply
  4. Avatar
    Jam222 December 31, 2016

    You’re way too low on Lego Bats opening, probably going to be around $95M. Also too low on Bastards opening, I’m thinking 15 – 20M.

    I also don’t see the February 3rd weekend being that strong either, that is Super Bowl weekend. Rings will barely open to $10M.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Thedude3445 January 01, 2017

    These predictions are a bit crazy. $20 million for Rock Dog is ludicrous, especially two weeks after Lego Batman. These type of low-rent animated movies never do well domestically; no way this one is passing The Nut Job, which, with a prime MLK Jr. Day Weekend spot and no competition except the 8th weekend of Frozen, still only got a $19 million opening. Even with strong reviews, Kubo flopped, so presuming that this will get terrible ones as usual, I think we should think less Hoodwinked, more Hoodwinked Too.

    I think the cumulative for The Great Wall is a bit low and WAY too low for John Wick 2 and Fifty Shades 2, but that may just be me not seeing the tracking stats for now. I think all three of these will over-perform expectations, though, especially John Wick 2 which has the ultimate breakout sequel potential.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    WTF January 02, 2017

    How in the world is Rock Dog going to open above $20 million opening weekend?!?! Face it, the movie will end its domestic box office run about less than half of $20 million.

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    MIchael February 15, 2017

    I think you’re estimate for Get Out is a bit on the conservative side. Not to say that 20 mil isn’t a decent number, but I think now that the trailer is in constant play – which it’s a great, atmospheric trailer – and people are talking about it, I think it will drive more people to the theater. I could see an opening between 26-28 million with the potential to go even higher.

    Reply

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