Long Range Forecast: ‘All Saints,’ ‘Birth of the Dragon,’ & ‘Polaroid’ Set to Finish August; ‘Spider-Man’ & ‘Apes’ Benefit from Strong Early Reviews
The final weekend of August — and penultimate frame of Summer 2017 — is currently slated to see five wide releases hit the market. Our initial analysis and forecast:
- All Saints (Sony/Columbia) marks the latest faith-based film to aim for pre-Labor Day success, a strategy employed very successfully with 2015’s War Room.
- Birth of the Dragon (BH Tilt) could appeal to fans of Bruce Lee as it traces the young martial artist’s early days.
- Polaroid (TWC / Dimension) boasts a concept similar to that of The Ring and other horror entries. Its best potential will be among teenagers.
- All Saints isn’t generating the kind of social media engagement as the more successful faith-based films have in recent years.
- Birth of the Dragon‘s distributor has a limited box office history, which indicates some challenges ahead with wide marketing reach.
- Polaroid seems to revisit a horror plot device that fans of the genre are burned out on (see the performance of Rings earlier this year). Landing in between Annabelle: Creation and September’s It won’t help, either.
This Week’s Changes & Other Notes
- A strong wave of critical reviews has boosted confidence in War for the Planet for the Apes. It still has a tougher market to face than its two predecessors, but nevertheless seems poised for success.
- A lack of marketing reach and muted social media buzz continue to temper our expectations for Wish Upon.
- Buzz for Dunkirk is heating up at a steady rate, which should continue over the next few weeks for Christopher Nolan’s latest original film. We’ve lowered our opening weekend expectation (for now) due mainly to the competitive market it will be entering since both Apes and Spider-Man: Homecoming are generating ecstatic early reactions. We still expect Dunkirk to play the long game, though.
- As noted, five films are scheduled to release on August 25, but we’re omitting Crown Heights (Amazon Studios/IFC Films) and Tulip Fever (Weinstein Company) until traditional wide release strategies are confirmed for the two films — neither of which have generated enough awareness or online engagement at this point to justify a wide release box office forecast.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Location Count||Distributor|
|7/7/2017||Spider-Man: Homecoming||$125,000,000||$301,000,000||4,000||Sony / Columbia|
|7/14/2017||The Big Sick (Wide Exp)||n/a||n/a||n/a||Lionsgate|
|7/14/2017||War for the Planet of the Apes||$60,000,000||11%||$165,000,000||10%||3,900||Fox|
|7/14/2017||Wish Upon||$8,500,000||-15%||$19,500,000||-15%||2,500||Broad Green Pictures|
|7/21/2017||Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets||$24,000,000||$70,000,000||STX Entertainment|
|7/28/2017||Atomic Blonde||$27,500,000||$82,500,000||Focus Features|
|7/28/2017||The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself||$27,000,000||$95,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|8/4/2017||The Dark Tower||$42,000,000||$107,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|8/4/2017||An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power||n/a||n/a||Paramount|
|8/11/2017||Annabelle: Creation||$27,000,000||$61,000,000||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|8/11/2017||The Glass Castle||$3,500,000||$10,500,000||Lionsgate|
|8/11/2017||The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature||$12,000,000||$40,000,000||Open Road|
|8/18/2017||The Hitman’s Bodyguard||$19,000,000||$57,000,000||Lionsgate / Summit|
|8/18/2017||Logan Lucky||$12,000,000||$39,000,000||Bleecker Street|
|8/25/2017||All Saints||$4,000,000||NEW||$12,000,000||NEW||Sony / Columbia|
|8/25/2017||Birth of the Dragon||$2,500,000||NEW||$5,500,000||NEW||BH Tilt|
|8/25/2017||Crown Heights||n/a||NEW||n/a||NEW||Amazon Studio / IFC Films|
|8/25/2017||Polaroid||$9,000,000||NEW||$23,500,000||NEW||TWC / Dimension|
|8/25/2017||Tulip Fever||n/a||NEW||n/a||NEW||Weinstein Company|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.