Long Range Forecast: ‘All Saints,’ ‘Birth of the Dragon,’ & ‘Polaroid’ Set to Finish August; ‘Spider-Man’ & ‘Apes’ Benefit from Strong Early Reviews

The final weekend of August — and penultimate frame of Summer 2017 — is currently slated to see five wide releases hit the market. Our initial analysis and forecast:

PROS:

  • All Saints (Sony/Columbia) marks the latest faith-based film to aim for pre-Labor Day success, a strategy employed very successfully with 2015’s War Room.
  • Birth of the Dragon (BH Tilt) could appeal to fans of Bruce Lee as it traces the young martial artist’s early days.
  • Polaroid (TWC / Dimension) boasts a concept similar to that of The Ring and other horror entries. Its best potential will be among teenagers.

CONS:

  • All Saints isn’t generating the kind of social media engagement as the more successful faith-based films have in recent years.
  • Birth of the Dragon‘s distributor has a limited box office history, which indicates some challenges ahead with wide marketing reach.
  • Polaroid seems to revisit a horror plot device that fans of the genre are burned out on (see the performance of Rings earlier this year). Landing in between Annabelle: Creation and September’s It won’t help, either.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • A strong wave of critical reviews has boosted confidence in War for the Planet for the Apes. It still has a tougher market to face than its two predecessors, but nevertheless seems poised for success.
  • A lack of marketing reach and muted social media buzz continue to temper our expectations for Wish Upon.
  • Buzz for Dunkirk is heating up at a steady rate, which should continue over the next few weeks for Christopher Nolan’s latest original film. We’ve lowered our opening weekend expectation (for now) due mainly to the competitive market it will be entering since both Apes and Spider-Man: Homecoming are generating ecstatic early reactions. We still expect Dunkirk to play the long game, though.
  • As noted, five films are scheduled to release on August 25, but we’re omitting Crown Heights (Amazon Studios/IFC Films) and Tulip Fever (Weinstein Company) until traditional wide release strategies are confirmed for the two films — neither of which have generated enough awareness or online engagement at this point to justify a wide release box office forecast.

The Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
7/7/2017 Spider-Man: Homecoming $125,000,000 $301,000,000 4,000 Sony / Columbia
7/14/2017 The Big Sick (Wide Exp) n/a n/a n/a Lionsgate
7/14/2017 War for the Planet of the Apes $60,000,000 11% $165,000,000 10% 3,900 Fox
7/14/2017 Wish Upon $8,500,000 -15% $19,500,000 -15% 2,500 Broad Green Pictures
7/21/2017 Dunkirk $57,500,000 -4% $240,000,000 Warner Bros.
7/21/2017 Girls Trip $17,000,000 $60,000,000 Universal
7/21/2017 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $24,000,000 $70,000,000 STX Entertainment
7/28/2017 Atomic Blonde $27,500,000 $82,500,000 Focus Features
7/28/2017 The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself $27,000,000 $95,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 The Dark Tower $42,000,000 $107,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 Detroit n/a n/a Annapurna Pictures
8/4/2017 An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power n/a n/a Paramount
8/4/2017 Kidnap $5,000,000 $12,000,000 Aviron
8/11/2017 Annabelle: Creation $27,000,000 $61,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
8/11/2017 The Glass Castle $3,500,000 $10,500,000 Lionsgate
8/11/2017 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature $12,000,000 $40,000,000 Open Road
8/18/2017 The Hitman’s Bodyguard $19,000,000 $57,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
8/18/2017 Logan Lucky $12,000,000 $39,000,000 Bleecker Street
8/25/2017 All Saints $4,000,000 NEW $12,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
8/25/2017 Birth of the Dragon $2,500,000 NEW $5,500,000 NEW BH Tilt
8/25/2017 Crown Heights n/a NEW n/a NEW Amazon Studio / IFC Films
8/25/2017 Polaroid $9,000,000 NEW $23,500,000 NEW TWC / Dimension
8/25/2017 Tulip Fever n/a NEW n/a NEW Weinstein Company

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

13 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Austin June 30, 2017

    Dunkirk’s forecast is fixed, but I still forecast that War for the Planet of the Apes will reach $70 million. Atomic Blonde, The Emoji Movie, and, perhaps, Spider Man, are too high (refer to my other comments in similar forums). In Spider Man’s case, I’m not exactly sure how many people want to see another Spider Man movie and the high reviews it’s getting so far are obvious to me.
    Otherwise, All Saints is released by Sony/Columbia rather than Pure Flix, which is a critical note. Nowadays, the most successful faith-based films are from Sony/Columbia, a trend that started with War Room (2015). Even though I haven’t seen much marketing for this movie (especially a trailer), I think that prediction is going to double with the potential of scoring even more than that.
    In regard to Birth of a Dragon, I see it getting to $3 million, but not much else.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      randy July 02, 2017

      I think the idea with the Spidey numbers is that Iron Man/Downy is in it.

      Him + Spidey inflates the numbers.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    DangerS June 30, 2017

    Planet of the Apes still too low. Should do $70-80M. And I see no reason to lower your Dunkirk projections.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen June 30, 2017

      The closer we get to Apes3’s release date, the more buzz will grow. Their tracking will thus reflect that with more and more increased expectations. I see their Weekend Forecast for 7/14 to reflect your higher expectations. Yes, Apes3 is coming into a tough market, but what I’ve read about it consistently is that it has a potent emotional core and payoff; that more than anything should embolden more people to get to the theaters because little this summer has provided anything of emotional connection (even horror movies or raunchy escapist comedies).

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    Lebrun jones June 30, 2017

    Spodermen is WAYYYYYYYYY too low

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Fred June 30, 2017

    I think your predicted numbers are too low on “Homecoming” and “Apes”. If anything after the strong buzz and glowing reviews on both films have been getting you should have raised your predictions, but you’ll see in due time. Spider-Man has a bigger upside than GOTG and Wonder Woman, but the film has to be very good to pull it off. It’s one of those critic proof films that will make money even if critics don’t like it, but the movie will make more money if it’s liked by critics. One of the big reasons Wonder Woman is making as much money as it’s making is because it’s liked by critics and it’s a good movie. Good reviews won’t dictate a film making money at the box office, but it can enhance their box office numbers.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin July 01, 2017

      What do you mean by “bigger upside”? Spider-Man: Homecoming is the second reboot of Spider-Man, the idea of which made some audiences skeptical whereas GOTG 2 had a bigger upside than Spider-Man on the heels of the surprising first one. Even with those reviews, it’s still tough to say if those audiences will show up because they could just be fatigued by the amount of Spider-Man movies Sony already made or perhaps how many superhero movies there are already. The other point I’ll make is that for Marvel, these reviews are no shock at all. That 93% on rotten tomatoes and 74% on metacritic are usual standings for Marvel movies (and likely to go down to 87-90% on rotten tomatoes). For me, I just see Spider-Man having better legs from these reviews, but not exactly a better opening like Wonder Woman (one of the most unexpected surprises of the year) due to audience uncertainty. As of a week ago, Spider-Man’s tracking was at $100 million, so I still express doubts over that $125 opening and its shelf life after War for the Planet of the Apes and Dunkirk.

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    Devesh Pandey June 30, 2017

    You said the good reviews have benefited homecoming and still not updated your predictions ????

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    The Oricle of Sunset June 30, 2017

    DUNKIRK won’t break $50m; it’s a WWII movie about a little-know blunder (among the average movie-goer), that doesn’t prominently feature the American military, where the good guys lose, and which doesn’t have a blue chip lead (Tom Hardy – like most “A listers” – is conditional, and this isn’t one of the conditions, and he’s just part of an ensemble anyway). It will underperform domestically, but fair better internationally.

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    Devesh Pandey July 01, 2017

    Spiderman Homecoming will open to atleast $135 Million going by the super positive reviews and growing buzz. It’s legs will be affected by Apes, but it will have tremendous WOM (it’s being called the biggest crowd-pleaser of the year) and Apes and Dunkirk and adult-popcorn entrainers, while Spidey will be the last family entertainer of the summer and will appeal hugely to teens who will not get attracted to either of Dunkirk and Apes. So if the WOM is as I’m expecting it to be, $350 Million will be a guarantee and with some luck, it could just about take a shot at $385-$400 Million. Again, it will be a fanboy film and thus could be a but more front loaded but for now, the sage guestimate seems $350-$360 Million domestic and $900-$930 Million worldwide !

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    J July 01, 2017

    Yes Spider-Man is getting great reviews. But it’s still too high. 100-110 million is probably where it will end up. Apes is still too low, and should get 70-80 million. Dunkirk needs to be lowered more, probably to 45-50 million.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Moe July 04, 2017

      I agree with you 100%.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin July 05, 2017

      I don’t fully agree with your Dunkirk forecast (I see it at $55-58 million) because it is still one of the most anticipated movies of the Summer, but everything else is rather solid.
      Even if I don’t see Apes garnering over $73 million, I think it is aiming for around $70 million.
      Spider-Man is now looking like an overestimated movie. Currently, tracking is seeing $100 million and the range is between $90 and $110, of which I think Spider-Man is aiming for the higher estimate and a possible maximum of $115 million. Sony is even more pessimistic with $85 million estimate (though studio estimates have usually been hit-and-miss with estimates that are primarily too low). With all that said and the obviously high reviews (Doctor Strange had very similar reviews so should I be surprised about Spider-Man’s reviews?) and possible audience and franchise fatigue, that $125 million is too big by anywhere between $10 and $20 million despite high anticipation, because nobody can rule out anticipation killing a film anymore. (Remember Despicable Me 3? Remember GOTG 2?)

      Reply

Leave reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *