Long Range Forecast: ‘All I See Is You’ & ‘American Assassin’

This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes two releases slated for September 15 openings. We’ve also updated a handful of other upcoming releases in the chart below.

PROS:

  • American Assassin (Lionsgate) has the benefit of source material to cull existing fans from, as well as Michael Keaton’s adult audience combined with Dylan O’Brien’s younger audience.
  • All I See Is You will hope to appeal to fans of Blake Lively, who turned 2015’s The Age of Adaline into a solid mid-range performer with positive word of mouth that generated $42 million domestically.

CONS:

  • Coming off the heels of summer and the previous week’s It, we feel American Assassin is more likely poised to perform along the modest levels of The November ManA Walk Among the Tombstones, etc. Social media buzz is fairly muted this far out from release.
  • Likewise, All I See Is You‘s target female audience could be preoccupied with Home Again (opening the week before) if reception for the latter film is positive.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • With both Dunkirk and Girls Trip looking to enjoy lengthy runs, we’ve slightly lowered our expectations for Atomic Blonde — however, marketing has been strong and we remain optimistic in its overall potential.
  • The Emoji Movie should benefit from a lack of kid-oriented films in the late summer market. Strong marketing is aiding our latest forecast bump.
  • The Dark Tower hasn’t picked up significant steam across social media channels, which is something of a minor concern for an established property. There’s still some time for things to pick up but July’s slew of well-received holdovers could further dampen overall interest and potential unless reviews for Tower are strong.
  • Our first public forecast for Detroit is now included in the chart.
  • Kidnap‘s lack of marketing reach remains a concern ahead of its release in two weeks.
  • Immediately prior to publication, Paramount moved Darren Aronofsky’s mother! to a slated September 15 wide release. We’re currently holding off public forecasts until a trailer is available.

The Forecast: 

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
7/28/2017 Atomic Blonde $26,000,000 -5% $82,500,000 -10% 3,200 Focus Features
7/28/2017 The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself $30,000,000 3% $105,500,000 3% 3,700 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 The Dark Tower $33,000,000 -21% $84,000,000 -21% 3,700 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 Detroit $13,000,000 NEW $31,000,000 NEW 2,300 Annapurna Pictures
8/4/2017 An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power n/a n/a n/a Paramount
8/4/2017 Kidnap $4,000,000 -20% $9,000,000 -25% 2,000 Aviron
8/11/2017 Annabelle: Creation $27,000,000 $61,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
8/11/2017 The Glass Castle $3,500,000 $10,500,000 Lionsgate
8/11/2017 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature $12,000,000 $40,000,000 Open Road
8/18/2017 The Hitman’s Bodyguard $19,000,000 $57,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
8/18/2017 Logan Lucky $12,000,000 $39,000,000 Bleecker Street
8/25/2017 All Saints $4,000,000 $12,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/25/2017 Birth of the Dragon $2,500,000 $5,500,000 BH Tilt
8/25/2017 Crown Heights n/a n/a Amazon Studio / IFC Films
8/25/2017 A Gentleman n/a NEW n/a NEW FIP
8/25/2017 Polaroid $9,000,000 $23,500,000 TWC / Dimension
8/25/2017 Tulip Fever n/a n/a Weinstein Company
8/30/2017 Leap! $4,500,000 $15,800,000 The Weinstein Company
9/1/2017 Renegades $4,000,000 $9,500,000 STX Entertainment
9/1/2017 Unlocked n/a n/a Lionsgate Premiere
9/8/2017 Home Again $12,000,000 $45,000,000 Open Road Films
9/8/2017 It $40,000,000 $100,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
9/15/2017 All I See Is You $6,500,000 NEW $15,600,000 NEW Open Road
9/15/2017 American Assassin $10,000,000 NEW $25,000,000 NEW Lionsgate
9/15/2017 mother! n/a NEW n/a NEW Paramount

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

9 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Matt D. July 21, 2017

    Too low on American Assassian. I think the film will be a undercooked movie of this year. I think it will perform like the first John Wick. Make at least $18 M opening weekend and finish around $45-50 M. The trailer have looked great so far. Also a little too high on Dark Tower. I will say $26 M opening and finish around $60-65 M.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Matt D. July 21, 2017

      Typo in my second sentence. The word was supposed to be “underlooked”.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen July 21, 2017

      I think you’re right about Dark Tower, and I hope you’re right about American Assassin. It looks like a fun film. But this site’s allusion to A Walk Among the Tombstones is logical. That also looked like a very enjoyable film (and for the most part was) but it didn’t connect with people. Plus, September looks to be abnormally packed with a number of potentially big hits; AA could get “lost in the rush,” as my mom used to say.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin July 22, 2017

      It’s really hard to sell me a movie that tries to be Jason Bourne 2.0, and I think it’s a tough sell for many people. American Assassin doesn’t just try to be Jason Bourne 2.0, but it looks to have plenty of backstory and clichès. I also think that it’s difficult to release American Assassin right before Kingsman: The Golden Circle. If it has great reviews and maybe an R-rating, I’d consider watching it. Therefore, American Assassin won’t perform like John Wick; it looks like another based-on-a-book movie vying for success a week before the crowded weekend.
      Besides that, The Emoji Movie looks destined to be crushed by bad (or terrible) reviews and I cannot bring myself to give it a forecast greater than $25 million while All Saints still needs a bigger forecast ($8 million).

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Austin July 22, 2017

        Also, to all those looking forward to The Dark Tower, it does have that PG13 rating, but I’m not sure what you think about that confirmed 95 minute runtime.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Jacen July 22, 2017

          95 mins? Hmmm. Well, a great script can accomplish a lot in that time. Cronenberg and Allen have both made strong dramas coming in under 100mins. Plus, The Squid and the Whale was under 90mins and an excellent drama. Could Dark Tower work the same magic in the action/western/SF/fantasy mode? Maybe, script willing, but it’s looking less likely as the days pass.

          As I’ve said before, though, the budget on the film is low enough that it could survive a box office total of 50mil domestic (so long as it does twice that outside the US).

          Reply
  2. Avatar
    Daniel Aplin July 21, 2017

    I think Mother! will open with $25-$30 Million given that it was trending worldwide yesterday (for no reason) and it stars Jennifer Lawrence and is Directed by Darren Aronofsky. It will probably have strong reviews as-well so that’ll help it.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Dave July 26, 2017

    I’m not sold on a movie whose hook is that this kid is the most naturally gifted and determined guy who can whip out his gun and shoot people in the head real fast must be trained to be even more perfect by another perfect guy who can pull a pistol real quick and shoot you in the head.

    It’s redundant with a lofty and soulless title. Also Dylan O’Brien is too young and it reeks of needing to be titled “John Wick: Origins”

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin July 26, 2017

      I think you and I view this movie a bit differently. I see American Assassin as a Jason Bourne 2.0 wannabe, based on a best-selling book, about someone becoming a CIA operative.

      Reply

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