Long Range Forecast: ‘All I See Is You’ & ‘American Assassin’
This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes two releases slated for September 15 openings. We’ve also updated a handful of other upcoming releases in the chart below.
- American Assassin (Lionsgate) has the benefit of source material to cull existing fans from, as well as Michael Keaton’s adult audience combined with Dylan O’Brien’s younger audience.
- All I See Is You will hope to appeal to fans of Blake Lively, who turned 2015’s The Age of Adaline into a solid mid-range performer with positive word of mouth that generated $42 million domestically.
- Coming off the heels of summer and the previous week’s It, we feel American Assassin is more likely poised to perform along the modest levels of The November Man, A Walk Among the Tombstones, etc. Social media buzz is fairly muted this far out from release.
- Likewise, All I See Is You‘s target female audience could be preoccupied with Home Again (opening the week before) if reception for the latter film is positive.
This Week’s Changes & Other Notes
- With both Dunkirk and Girls Trip looking to enjoy lengthy runs, we’ve slightly lowered our expectations for Atomic Blonde — however, marketing has been strong and we remain optimistic in its overall potential.
- The Emoji Movie should benefit from a lack of kid-oriented films in the late summer market. Strong marketing is aiding our latest forecast bump.
- The Dark Tower hasn’t picked up significant steam across social media channels, which is something of a minor concern for an established property. There’s still some time for things to pick up but July’s slew of well-received holdovers could further dampen overall interest and potential unless reviews for Tower are strong.
- Our first public forecast for Detroit is now included in the chart.
- Kidnap‘s lack of marketing reach remains a concern ahead of its release in two weeks.
- Immediately prior to publication, Paramount moved Darren Aronofsky’s mother! to a slated September 15 wide release. We’re currently holding off public forecasts until a trailer is available.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Location Count||Distributor|
|7/28/2017||Atomic Blonde||$26,000,000||-5%||$82,500,000||-10%||3,200||Focus Features|
|7/28/2017||The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself||$30,000,000||3%||$105,500,000||3%||3,700||Sony / Columbia|
|8/4/2017||The Dark Tower||$33,000,000||-21%||$84,000,000||-21%||3,700||Sony / Columbia|
|8/4/2017||An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power||n/a||n/a||n/a||Paramount|
|8/11/2017||Annabelle: Creation||$27,000,000||$61,000,000||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|8/11/2017||The Glass Castle||$3,500,000||$10,500,000||Lionsgate|
|8/11/2017||The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature||$12,000,000||$40,000,000||Open Road|
|8/18/2017||The Hitman’s Bodyguard||$19,000,000||$57,000,000||Lionsgate / Summit|
|8/18/2017||Logan Lucky||$12,000,000||$39,000,000||Bleecker Street|
|8/25/2017||All Saints||$4,000,000||$12,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|8/25/2017||Birth of the Dragon||$2,500,000||$5,500,000||BH Tilt|
|8/25/2017||Crown Heights||n/a||n/a||Amazon Studio / IFC Films|
|8/25/2017||Polaroid||$9,000,000||$23,500,000||TWC / Dimension|
|8/25/2017||Tulip Fever||n/a||n/a||Weinstein Company|
|8/30/2017||Leap!||$4,500,000||$15,800,000||The Weinstein Company|
|9/8/2017||Home Again||$12,000,000||$45,000,000||Open Road Films|
|9/8/2017||It||$40,000,000||$100,000,000||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|9/15/2017||All I See Is You||$6,500,000||NEW||$15,600,000||NEW||Open Road|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.