Long Range Forecast: ‘Smurfs: The Lost Village,’ ‘Going In Style,’ ‘The Case for Christ,’ ‘Sleight,’ & ‘Wonder’

Forecasts in this article represent expectations based on current buzz as measured by various tracking metrics and should not be treated as final predictions for any film.

This week’s edition of our Long Range Forecast takes an early look at the weekend of April 7, 2017, a frame currently slated to see the wide release of five new films.

The top debut for this weekend should end up being Smurfs: The Lost Village. The franchise experienced a downturn with the 2013 sequel netting half of its predecessor’s domestic box office, but Sony’s move to an all-animation film in Lost Village could be a welcome change for parents with young children. The film will open just one week after The Boss Baby, meaning both will cut into each other’s primary audience, but that should translate to longer staying power for both with April 21’s LEAP! marking the only animated release between this weekend and June 2’s Captain Underpants.

Zach Braff’s remake of Going In Style could be a dark horse thanks to its ensemble cast led by Morgan Freeman, Michael Caine, and Alan Arkin. Warner Bros. will be catering to the older audience that helped make Last Vegas and the Red films successful. Again, legs will be the name of the game for this kind of movie.

The other three openers will be The Case for ChristSleight, and Wonder. The former of the three could be a sleeper to watch for if Good Friday and Easter Weekend (April 14-16) help spur faith-based audiences to turn out for the release. The second, Sleight, is being pitched as a Chronicle-like film appealing to teens, but we’re cautious in expectations at this stage with modest social media buzz so far and The Fate of the Furious opening one week later. Meanwhile, Wonder hasn’t begun significant marketing at this stage and will likely remain a low-profile release.

Check out our complete forecast for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
2/17/2017 A Cure for Wellness $7,500,000 -6% $19,500,000 -7% 2,700 Fox
2/17/2017 Fist Fight $20,000,000 -9% $57,000,000 -10% 3,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
2/17/2017 The Great Wall $17,000,000 -11% $43,000,000 -12% 3,200 Universal
2/24/2017 Collide $4,000,000 -20% $10,500,000 -5% 2,000 Open Road
2/24/2017 Get Out $24,000,000 $69,000,000 3,000 Universal
2/24/2017 Rock Dog $3,000,000 $7,000,000 2,500 Lionsgate / Summit Premiere
3/3/2017 Before I Fall $7,000,000 $18,000,000 Open Road
3/3/2017 Logan $81,000,000 $205,000,000 Fox
3/3/2017 The Shack $6,000,000 -37% $22,000,000 -35% Lionsgate / Summit
3/10/2017 Kong: Skull Island $35,000,000 $100,000,000 Warner Bros.
3/10/2017 T2: Trainspotting n/a n/a Sony / TriStar
3/17/2017 Beauty and the Beast (2017) $144,000,000 $470,000,000 Disney
3/17/2017 The Belko Experiment $7,000,000 $16,000,000 High Top Releasing
3/24/2017 CHiPS $16,000,000 $53,000,000 Warner Bros.
3/24/2017 Life (2017) $15,000,000 $50,000,000 19% Sony / Columbia
3/24/2017 Power Rangers $38,000,000 $110,000,000 Lionsgate
3/31/2017 The Boss Baby $24,000,000 $83,000,000 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
3/31/2017 Ghost in the Shell (2017) $40,000,000 $105,000,000 Paramount / DreamWorks
3/31/2017 Step Sisters n/a n/a Broad Green Pictures
3/31/2017 The Zookeeper’s Wife $5,000,000 $19,000,000 Focus Features
4/7/2017 The Case for Christ $3,500,000 NEW $14,000,000 NEW Pure Flix
4/7/2017 Going In Style (2017) $12,500,000 NEW $49,000,000 NEW Warner Bros. / New Line
4/7/2017 Sleight $5,000,000 NEW $11,000,000 NEW High Top Releasing
4/7/2017 Smurfs: The Lost Village $21,500,000 NEW $78,500,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
4/7/2017 Wonder $3,000,000 NEW $10,000,000 NEW Lionsgate

Shawn Robbins, Alex Edghill, and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

7 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Taylor February 10, 2017

    I wonder since Step Sisters doesn’t have a trailer yet (and we are 1,5 months before its release) will it be rescheduled for later? Same thing happened with Patient Zero.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Dave February 10, 2017

    I think you’re under estimating Going In Style’s appeal- a movie starring scene stealers from other popular crowd pleasers and with the baby boomers loving that trio and connecting with the material while younger folks could still view it as a middle ground date night movie for the man and woman or whomever.

    I think it opens around $25M and closes between $65M land $125M

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen February 11, 2017

      A lot of the success of the film will depend on a few factors: overall quality, for a start; how close it adheres to the original; and whether audiences accept such a downbeat ending. I saw the original on the Movie Channel when I was a kid and was surprised by but accepting of the dark final act (Strasberg dies of a heart attack; Carney dies of exhaustion/hypertension; Burns ends his days in prison).

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    Kevin February 13, 2017

    I hope you guys update your power ranger numbers it’s gonna do more than $38,000,000 OW

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Douglas February 15, 2017

    “Wonder” was moved out of April 7 the other day

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Douglas February 15, 2017

    So the second Smurfs opened to half ($17 mil) what the first did and that was during the summer when the kids were out of school on the opening Friday and Smurfs Lost Village opens on a non-holiday April weekend and it’s going to do MORE than Smurfs 2?

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Dave February 16, 2017

      Yeah when my gf and I saw the trailer in theaters we agreed it felt like a weird theatrical release of a DTV quality looking film. I’m guessing it opens to about $13M and closes at $47M or so.

      Also discerning parents of the kids who will want to go see this will recognize a drop off in production quality and probably choose ti skip theaters and use this as a rental or a home purchase later.

      Reply

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