Long Range Forecast: Will ‘Spider-Man: Homecoming’ Benefit from the Marvel Bump?

The next chapter in the Marvel Cinematic Universe represents this week’s addition to the Long Range Forecast. Spider-Man: Homecoming, slated for release on July 7, is quite unique as the first MCU production to be released completely outside the Disney banner since 2011. Our initial analysis and forecast:

Spider-Man: Homecoming
Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios

PROS:

  • Years before the Marvel Cinematic Universe existed, the Spider-Man franchise was putting up record-breaking box office performances at the beginning of the modern era for comic book adaptations. Of course, this is largely attributed to the fact that the character has long been established as one of the most popular and beloved in the entire genre for generations. Sam Raimi’s original trilogy translated that reputation to the tune of more than $1.1 billion in domestic box office grosses across his three films in 2002, 2004, and 2007 — including two (then) record opening weekends for the first and third films.
  • Tom Holland’s introduction as Peter Parker / Spider-Man in last year’s Captain America: Civil War was widely praised by both fans and critics. Combined with Marvel’s (wise) decision to not retell the character’s specific origin story, Holland’s age-appropriate casting as the high school version of the character could drive strong appeal among teens and young adults.
  • Initial buzz following the film’s trailers has been very strong. Twitter activity is significantly ahead of The Amazing Spider-Man 2 at the same point before release, while the franchise’s official Facebook page boasts a massive 20.4 million fans (and counting) as of this writing.
  • A key factor working against the two Amazing Spider-Man films in 2012 and 2014 was an attempt to “Nolan-ize” the franchise — in other words, making it “darker” (for lack of a more accurate essay about what that misnomer of a description really entails) both in storytelling tone and visual atmosphere, ala the Dark Knight trilogy. That strategy worked for Batman because Christopher Nolan’s cerebral approach to the character suited the core storytelling. With Spider-Man, the return to a more light-hearted, coming-of-age superhero drama recalls some of the ingredients that made Raimi’s first two films work on so many levels with a character that isn’t so world-weary.
  • Bringing in Robert Downey, Jr.’s Tony Stark / Iron Man to help christen the first official Spider-Man movie in the MCU should provide an additional point of interest for adults and older fans. The same can be said — albeit on a more minor level — for Michael Keaton’s casting as the main antagonist.

CONS:

  • Given that this is technically the sixth Spider-Man film in fifteen years — more importantly, the second “reboot” — some level of audience fatigue toward the character wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect. A strong film with positive reviews could help curb some of that natural downside given the interest surrounding the film taking place within the actual MCU, a missing element lamented by many fans old and young when it came to the two Amazing Spider-Man films.
  • As the third tentpole comic book film to open within two months’ time, audience demand to return to the genre won’t exactly be at its peak.
  • This July’s release slate is intriguingly geared toward adult audiences with tentpole films War for the Planet of the Apes and Dunkirk opening in the middle of the month. That means word of mouth and repeat viewings among younger crowds will be particularly important when it comes to Spider-Man‘s long-term success.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul remains in flux as it drags across social media but shows mixed signals in traditional tracking. An opening somewhere between the performance of its predecessor, Dog Days, and last year’s tween flick Middle School remains likely.
  • Due to Paramount’s shift to a Wednesday release, our projections for Transformers: The Last Knight have been updated.

Check out our 8-week forecast in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
5/19/2017 Alien: Covenant $37,000,000 $95,000,000 3,600 Fox
5/19/2017 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul $8,500,000 42% $29,200,000 42% 2,900 Fox
5/19/2017 Everything, Everything $11,000,000 $33,650,000 2,600 Warner Bros.
5/25/2017 Baywatch $35,000,000*
$42,000,000**
$115,000,000 3,400 Paramount
5/26/2017 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $68,000,000*
$84,000,000**
$212,000,000 4,100 Disney
6/2/2017 Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie $28,000,000 $93,500,000 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
6/2/2017 Wonder Woman $83,000,000 $225,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/9/2017 It Comes At Night $12,000,000 $39,000,000 A24
6/9/2017 Megan Leavey n/a NEW n/a NEW Bleecker Street
6/9/2017 The Mummy (2017) $50,000,000 $143,000,000 Universal
6/16/2017 47 Meters Down n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
6/16/2017 All Eyez On Me $18,000,000 $49,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
6/16/2017 Cars 3 $49,000,000 $180,000,000 Disney / Pixar
6/16/2017 Rough Night $25,000,000 $80,000,000 Sony
6/21/2017 Transformers: The Last Knight $70,000,000 -11% $205,000,000 5% Paramount
6/28/2017 Baby Driver $15,000,000 $50,000,000 Sony / TriStar
6/30/2017 Amityville: The Awakening $8,500,000 $18,000,000 TWC / Dimension
6/30/2017 Despicable Me 3 $75,000,000 $270,000,000 Universal / Illumination
6/30/2017 The House (2017) $28,000,000 $126,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
7/7/2017 Spider-Man: Homecoming $135,000,000 NEW $325,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia

* = 3-day weekend (Friday-Sunday)
** = 4-day weekend (Friday-Monday)

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Shawn Robbins

18 Comments

  1. Avatar
    DangerS May 12, 2017

    Wow a prediction that’s on point? How did this happen?

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Aaron Yorgason May 12, 2017

    Robert Downey Jr’s Tony Stark is the key here. The last 4 movies Iron Man has been a lead character in have all grossed 1 Billion+. That is the carrot that Disney offered Sony, and the reason why they took it. If any live action film is guaranteed to earn a billion this summer globally, this is it because of RDJ as Iron Man being in it.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    J May 12, 2017

    Pirates 5 still too low.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin May 17, 2017

      I don’t think Pirates 5 prediction here is too low. Remember what happened to Alice 2 last year? With a six-year gap between the previous installment and bad reviews to accompany it, the movie opened around five to six times lower than its predecessor and flopped. Though I expect the reviews of Pirates 5 to be better than Alice 2 (I’m going with 48% right now), being sandwiched between Alien: Covenant and Wonder Woman won’t help its case, especially considering that Fandango poll conducted regarding Wonder Woman.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        J May 19, 2017

        Agree that it’s position between Alien and WW will affect it, but no one wanted an Alice movie, or a sequel while Pirates has always had a built in fan base(like me for example). Sure, I didn’t like the last one but this is being called a return to form so I have hope. On rotten tomatoes I’m predicting a 55-60%

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Austin May 19, 2017

          Putting our disagreements on the performance of Pirates 5 to the side for a moment, I think that one thing is still absolutely certain: It will open to #1 at the box office next week.

          Reply
  4. Avatar
    Malik Aaron May 12, 2017

    I think you should increase your prediction on Alien: Covenant because the reviews are pretty solid, even better than Promethus. Also, you should increase your prediction on Cars 3 because it’s got some good buzz, unlike The Emoji Movie, which probably has the worst buzz of any movie since 2016’s Ghostbusters.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Don't Mind Me Now May 12, 2017

    People enjoyed the CIVIL WAR cameo and the new version of the character, but while that will absolutely stop the bleeding, I have serious doubts as to whether HOMECOMING will have that huge of an upswing from AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2. HOMECOMING is opening in the middle of a one-blockbuster-after-another schedule, beginning with CARS 3 and continuing through DUNKIRK. Granted, not all the movies in that schedule are direct competitors to HOMECOMING, but with TRANSFORMERS and WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES boxing it in, and a crowded slate causing it to lose screens relatively quickly, HOMECOMING could find itself fighting for air. And while the films aren’t looked fondly upon now, it’s important to remember that the first AMAZING SPIDER-MAN was largely well-received upon release, yet failed to improve upon SPIDER-MAN 3 even with five years of inflation. Something similar could wind up happening here. If reviews are absolutely great (90%+ RT) the film could definitely outgross AMAZING SPIDER-MAN ($262 million), though it might take a lot of the competition outright flopping in order for it to hit $300 million. If reviews are merely on par with AMAZING SPIDER-MAN, however, we’re more likely to see something between AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2 ($202 million) and DOCTOR STRANGE ($232 million). I expect the film will open somewhere around $90-100 million, with potential to go upward with strong reviews, but where it goes from there is entirely dependent as to its holding power against likely strong competition.

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    AJ May 12, 2017

    Pirates 5 once again is way too low. The domestic opening should open to $100 Million in probably the first 4 days. Also the domestic total should probably be about 250M. This film has highly positive reactions, with a score of 8.5 in IMDB, which is the best in the franchise. Also, the original cast is back, the strong Pirates fanbase, and Javier Bardem. This movie should not be underestimated and so shouldn’t the series.

    Opening Domestic:
    3-Day: 85 M
    4-Day: 100M
    Domestic Total:
    250-260 M
    International Total:
    830M

    Worldwide: 1.08-1.09B

    Reply
  7. Avatar
    Cthulhu May 13, 2017

    I’m surprised that you didn’t give Alien: Covenant a bit of a bump given that it got mostly good reviews – you did point that out as being important to its overall performance on another analysis piece, after all.

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    dsdkajds May 13, 2017

    The Mummy is way too high. I have a feeling it could bomb pretty hard.

    Alien Covenant may end up closer to the $125-130 million gross of Prometheus.

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    WMX May 13, 2017

    I see that you upped the WW prediction, which is smart. Spider Man is still too low: 145 plus.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Elex May 14, 2017

      Actually theyv been consistent with their $83M prediction since they opened long range forecasting on Wonder Woman.
      They actually have a column for % change.
      I think it will open to slightly +$100. Warner will look at the current tracking and intensify marketing and reach in the final weeks and good reviews (which are expected with word out from press screenings) will give marketing a good boost too

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Batman May 15, 2017

        WW has had poor word of mouth from previews & then buzz is terrible
        Wont reach $83m opening – nearer $65 and will top out at less than $200m

        Reply
        • Avatar
          A.A Roi May 16, 2017

          The only poor word of mouth is from DCEU haters who desperately want the film to fail and make up stuff like this. However, even if the film does this poorly (unlikely) it will still earn at least 50% more than the closest comparison, Captain America: The first Avenger.

          Reply
          • Avatar
            Batman May 17, 2017

            No it wont

  10. Avatar
    SPP May 13, 2017

    I think that it’ll make around 150 mil

    Reply
  11. Avatar
    Jae-Eun "James" Kim May 17, 2017

    [Spider-Man: Homecoming]
    – Opening Prediction: $120~130 Million Dollars
    – Domestic Total Prediction: $250~$300 Million Dollars
    – International Total Prediction: $450~500 Million Dollars

    Although the “Spider-Man: Homecoming” seems to be on the spot, it seems a little too high due to “superhero series fatigue” kicking in.

    This particular effect seems to be real as many Marvel Cinematic Universe’s movies have been opening at a slightly lower expectation that those given by the industry experts.

    Hence the reasoning for slightly lower opening and accumulative total.

    As for reaching the $300 Million Dollar peak, that will depend on how the movie holds up after the first week, but due to a crowded July schedule, it may not reach there.

    Reply

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