Long Range Forecast: Will Tom Cruise Lead ‘The Mummy’ Reboot to Summer Success?

This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast greets Universal’s latest remake of The Mummy, starring Tom Cruise, Sofia Boutella, and Russell Crowe. The film opens June 9.

The Mummy
Universal

PROS:

  • Tom Cruise has proven his capability toremain a major drawing force at the global box office with the last two Mission: Impossible films, plus the excellent word of mouth and staying power exhibited by 2014’s Edge of Tomorrow. He could help reel in adult audiences otherwise unsure about their interest in another remake of this franchise.
  • Social media activity is solid so far, boasting much stronger activity on Facebook and Twitter at the same point before release than did The Legend of Tarzan last year.
  • With Transformers: The Last Knight serving as its biggest direct competition until July (and not opening until Mummy‘s third weekend), this film has some breathing room to help build out staying power if audiences respond positively.
  • It remains to be seen whether audiences are truly excited about the studio’s planned monster cinematic universe (dubbed “Universal Monsters”) — but this seems as good a way as any to kick it off.

CONS:

  • The adult audience Cruise will be gunning to attract is the same one that drove Stephen Sommers’ first two Mummy films, starring Brendan Fraser, to huge success in 1999 and 2001. This remake will need to deliver something unique — in addition to Cruise — in order for it to stand out among that crowd.
  • While Cruise’s box office power remains healthy (especially overseas), he has nonetheless delivered modest results outside of the Mission franchise recently. Examples: Oblivion and Edge of Tomorrow‘s own lukewarm domestic opening weekend (which was mitigated by its strong staying power).
  • The success of Wonder Woman could be a factor here. If that film hits in a big way the weekend before, particularly after a month of May filled with action films, audiences may be ready for a brief mid-summer reprieve from special effects extravaganzas.

This Week’s Other Changes & Notes

  • Tracking and social media activity for The Circle continue to inspire cautious expectations.
  • The move of Baywatch to a Thursday release before Memorial Day is likely a means of avoiding head-to-head competition on opening day with Pirates of the Caribbean. Still, our long-term outlook for the R-rated comedy continues to improve bit by bit.
  • A24’s It Comes at Night has been excluded from our public forecast for the time being. Although it’s also slated to open wide on June 9, the distributor’s limited history of wide releases suggest plans could change on that end. That said, we have growing confidence in the film’s potential to be a mid-summer horror sleeper.

Check out our 8-week forecast in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
4/21/2017 Born in China $5,000,000 $17,300,000 1,500 Disneynature
4/21/2017 Free Fire $3,500,000 $11,000,000 700 A24
4/21/2017 Phoenix Forgotten n/a n/a 1,500 Cinelou Films
4/21/2017 The Promise $2,250,000 $4,500,000 2,000 Open Road Films
4/21/2017 Unforgettable $10,500,000 $24,500,000 2,350 Warner Bros.
4/28/2017 The Circle $10,000,000 -23% $30,000,000 -25% 2,800 STX Entertainment
4/28/2017 How to Be a Latin Lover $6,500,000 $23,000,000 1,000 Lionsgate
4/28/2017 Sleight $5,000,000 $11,000,000 1,600 BH Tilt
5/5/2017 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $160,000,000 $400,000,000 Disney
5/12/2017 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword $23,000,000 $67,000,000 Warner Bros.
5/12/2017 Lowriders n/a n/a BH Tilt
5/12/2017 Snatched $25,000,000 $85,000,000 Fox
5/19/2017 Alien: Covenant $35,000,000 $90,000,000 Fox
5/19/2017 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul $10,000,000 $32,000,000 Fox
5/19/2017 Everything, Everything $8,500,000 $26,000,000 Warner Bros.
5/25/2017 Baywatch $35,000,000
$42,000,000 4-day
$120,000,000 4% Paramount
5/26/2017 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $61,000,000
$75,000,000 4-day
$190,000,000 Disney
6/2/2017 Captain Underpants $24,000,000 $80,000,000 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
6/2/2017 Wonder Woman $83,000,000 $225,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/9/2017 It Comes At Night n/a NEW n/a NEW A24
6/9/2017 The Mummy (2017) $50,000,000 NEW $143,000,000 NEW Universal

Shawn Robbins, Alex Edghill, and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

10 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Tomer April 14, 2017

    No way its making that much.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      BlahBlahBlah April 15, 2017

      Seems low. Think it’ll make more.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Don't Mind Me Now April 14, 2017

    THE MUMMY is being hamstrung by a number of factors. Firstly, general audiences aren’t seeing the film as the launch of a new cinematic universe or as a reboot of the classic Universal horror film, but as a reboot of the Brendan Fraser franchise. Though that franchise ended in disgrace (TOMB OF THE DRAGON EMPEROR was slaughtered by THE DARK KNIGHT at the box office) the new MUMMY movie comes as a bizarre period of nostalgia for Brendan Fraser is beginning, and those familiar with the 1999 MUMMY aren’t into the idea of Tom Cruise taking and turning it into a M:I style action franchise. More important, however, is the fact that there really doesn’t seem to be demand for this film or franchise. The first trailer was subjected to intense mockery over Cruise’s (hilarious) screaming, which has been compounded by the fact that said trailer was pushed in front of every action and horror film released since ROGUE ONE. The social media attention this film has received appears to be largely exclusive to this aspect and comparisons to the Fraser franchise; there doesn’t appear to be much positive buzz brewing online. More generally, the film isn’t garnering significant reactions with crowds, and Cruise has limited drawing power these days outside of M:I. The fact that the film centers on a disaster in London, just a few months after a terrorist attack, won’t help the movie’s case. And with WONDER WOMAN and TRANSFORMERS to contend with, all told, this is looking like a $35 million opening, $70-75 million finish.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Whatever April 14, 2017

      Tbh all actors have limited drawing powers outside their franchises. Plus lots of Cruise fans are grow people who don’t use a lot of social media. Cruises movies always track less because of that. Mission impossible 5 was tracking 35- 44, and then made 56 million. I’m not saying the movie will do well. I’m saying that you are putting to much stock into the Internet and the new Brendan Fraser meme. Plus this movie is a wide card and it’s performance will depend on the reviews.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Don't Mind Me Now April 18, 2017

        I probably overemphasized the Fraser thing because I was writing this out pretty quickly, and on its own it might not be that much of an issue. But the buzz really just doesn’t seem there. Agreed on the importance of reviews, but that said, even though ROGUE NATION didn’t have the best tracking, it at least had a fairly memorable money shot (Cruise hanging off the plane) whereas the MUMMY trailer is most notable for the infamous scream. ROGUE NATION also benefited from basically being the last action blockbuster of the 2015 summer season, two weeks removed from ANT-MAN, and thus having plenty of time to get the word out about its quality (hence its solid legs). MUMMY is caught between a rock and a hard place with WONDER WOMAN opening the week beforehand and TRANSFORMERS just two weeks later. And while not as many people are as enamored with the Fraser franchise as I unintentionally suggested (hell, I never even saw those movies), people *are* seeing this film as a reboot of those films, which pushes it squarely into “ugh, another reboot?” territory.

        That said, it does have a buffer week between itself and TRANSFORMERS where, if it gets decent reviews, it could gain traction (as I doubt CARS 3 and ROUGH NIGHT will have that much of an impact on this film’s target demos). Christopher McQuarrie of ROGUE NATION is a credited writer, so it’s not impossible. But with everything stacked against it, I’m hesitant to argue for an over $100 million take without more evidence, particularly in an environment where big-budget movies either win big or lose hard.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      Kimbo Slice April 14, 2017

      That is a super low prediction for final numbers. I can’t believe you don’t have this movie making $100 million domestic. Whether you like the trailer or not, it’s shows a huge scope. It looks massive. The trailer has been viewed a very healthy number of times.

      And yes the previous Mummy flicks were fairly entertaining but people can move on.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Don't Mind Me Now April 18, 2017

        “Whether you like the trailer or not, it’s shows a huge scope. It looks massive.” So did the trailers for JUPITER ASCENDING. That’s not evidence of success in and of itself. (No, I don’t think THE MUMMY will bomb harder than JUPITER ASCENDING.)

        And trailer views don’t mean all that much. FATE OF THE FURIOUS broke BEAUTY AND THE BEAST’s online trailer view record, but it’s pretty clear that movie won’t top BEAUTY AND THE BEAST stateside. And I doubt IT, which now holds the record, is going to top FATE OF THE FURIOUS either. Buzz is better than no buzz, but trailer views are free, and they don’t mean much if people don’t like what they see – or if they’re ambivalent about it.

        Reply
    • Avatar
      Jacen April 14, 2017

      Very well reasoned and written. I’m going to agree with the prediction they came up with, but with a caveat: if the reviews are strong. Otherwise, mediocre reviews would reinforce the feeling I suspect most people get from the trailers: “Oh look, a generic action fantasy like The Sorcerer’s Apprentice, but with a screaming Cruise instead of a mugging Cage. Remember Apprentice? No? Okay.” If that’s the case, then, yeah, it won’t break 100 mil.

      Reply
  3. Avatar
    DangerS April 15, 2017

    LMAO! No way The Mummy finishes with a 2.9 multiplier.
    Also, you’re still underpredicting Pirates 5. It’s going for $100-110M 4-day and $240-250M total.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      MimikyuILoveYou April 15, 2017

      I agree about Pirates. It is definitely opening to at least $100M. The trailers look fantastic and all the POTC fans are anxiously awaiting its release.

      Reply

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