Long Range Forecast: ‘Thor: Ragnarok’ & ‘A Bad Moms Christmas’ Set to Kick Off Holiday Movie Season

This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes the addition of two new wide releases scheduled to debut on Friday, November 3, officially kicking off the holiday movie season. Our early analyses and forecasts:

Thor: Ragnarok
Disney / Marvel Studios

PROS:

  • The most obvious and well-publicized asset for this film will, of course, be the fact that Marvel Studios has become a franchise brand name unto itself with event-level appeal to virtually all ages.
  • The promise of Mark Ruffalo’s Bruce Banner/Hulk joining Chris Hemsworth’s Thor for a feature film could give this sub-franchise sequel an added boost of intrigue. Although not featured in marketing (so far), the same can be said of Benedict Cumberbatch’s Doctor Strange, not to mention the casting of Cate Blanchett as the central villain and Jeff Goldblum’s Grandmaster character.
  • Early marketing has employed a more musically-driven, playful tone in the vein of the Guardians of the Galaxy films, something that has been generally well received by fans and offers a different expectation than we’ve come to expect from Thor movies.

CONS:

  • The previous Thor film, The Dark World, was a modest success by Marvel standards. Financially, the film certainly held its own, but it was generally regarded as one of the rare “filler” chapters of the overall MCU (as shown by its status as one of the most front-loaded Marvel movies to date). That could potentially lead to some minor audience fatigue as far as Thor-centric films go.
  • Much like the case was in 2013 when Dark World faced stiff mid-November competition with The Hunger Games: Catching FireRagnarok will run into the widely anticipated release of Justice League during the former’s third weekend. Word of mouth for both films will be key to each one’s success as they aim for similar audiences.
  • Although not necessarily a negative sign by any means, recent social media trends are more comparable to Doctor Strange than either of this year’s previous Marvel entries (Guardians Vol. 2 and Spider-Man: Homecoming).

A Bad Moms Christmas
STXfilms

PROS:

  • The first film was a runaway sleeper hit during summer 2016, earning over $113 million domestically from a $23.8 million opening.
  • The counter-programming potential is generally strong on opening weekend, particularly among “moms’ night out” audiences. Similarly, the holiday theme of the film is purposefully and obviously tied to the shift toward a holiday season release.

CONS:

  • Although it should only be a minor effect, the female-driven comedic sequel will still have to contend with the fact that Thor: Ragnarok is led by one of Marvel’s more popular characters among women. This will then face another comedy sequel in its second weekend with Daddy’s Home 2 slated to open on November 10.
  • On the whole, comedy sequels have been very hit-and-miss at the box office in recent years, with examples like Horrible Bosses 2Ted 2, and others proving to perform well below the standards set by their predecessors.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • mother! has shown encouraging signs of social media activity since marketing kicked in a few weeks ago. That said, we remain concerned about its release proximity to IT, which is likely to still post a strong second weekend.
  • Likewise, the Flatliners remake has shown improving signs on social media of late. The film’s latest trailer this week could spur additional interest from teen moviegoers.

The Long Range Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
9/15/2017 American Assassin $14,500,000 $40,000,000 3,000 Lionsgate
9/15/2017 mother! $11,200,000 7% $38,400,000 7% 2,800 Paramount
9/22/2017 Friend Request n/a n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
9/22/2017 Kingsman: The Golden Circle $42,000,000 $107,700,000 3,500 Fox
9/22/2017 The LEGO Ninjago Movie $42,500,000 $146,600,000 4,000 Warner Bros.
9/29/2017 American Made $15,000,000 $50,500,000 Universal
9/29/2017 Flatliners (2017) $12,000,000 20% $29,000,000 12% Sony / Screen Gems
9/29/2017 A Question of Faith n/a n/a Pure Flix
10/6/2017 Blade Runner 2049 $44,000,000 $115,000,000 Warner Bros.
10/6/2017 The Mountain Between Us $8,000,000 $25,000,000 Fox
10/6/2017 My Little Pony (2017) $7,500,000 $21,500,000 Lionsgate
10/13/2017 The Foreigner $10,000,000 $27,700,000 STXfilms
10/13/2017 Happy Death Day $20,000,000 $40,000,000 Universal / Blumhouse
10/13/2017 Marshall $12,000,000 $39,000,000 Open Road
10/20/2017 Geostorm $12,000,000 $27,800,000 Warner Bros.
10/20/2017 Only the Brave $16,000,000 $55,000,000 Sony / Columbia
10/20/2017 Same Kind of Different As Me $4,500,000 $12,000,000 Pure Flix
10/20/2017 The Snowman $11,000,000 $31,000,000 Universal
10/20/2017 Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween $23,500,000 $59,300,000 Lionsgate
10/27/2017 All I See Is You n/a n/a Open Road
10/27/2017 Jigsaw $10,000,000 $21,600,000 Lionsgate
10/27/2017 Suburbicon $14,000,000 $45,000,000 Paramount
10/27/2017 Thank You for Your Service $5,000,000 $17,500,000 Universal
11/3/2017 A Bad Moms Christmas $30,000,000 NEW $85,000,000 NEW STXfilms
11/3/2017 Thor: Ragnarok $100,000,000 NEW $250,000,000 NEW Disney

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

33 Comments

  1. Avatar
    John September 08, 2017

    Still not increasing American Made’s OW predictions even with all the great reviews.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin September 11, 2017

      Umm…there are no reviews for American Assassin yet, indicating an embargo still in effect. The real reviews will show up sometime soon.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Don't Mind Me Now September 11, 2017

        American Assassin (the Dylan O’Brien/Michael Keaton movie) and American Made (the Tom Cruise movie) are two different films.

        Reply
      • Avatar
        i hate using names September 12, 2017

        He said American Made, with Tom Cruise, not American Assassin, with Dylan O’Brien.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Pia September 13, 2017

          American Made has amazing reviews. It should do well at the Box Office.

          Reply
    • Avatar
      randy September 14, 2017

      Good reviews does not =HIT MOVIE

      It has very small appeal and the marketing is just average, rave reviews won’t help it much.

      Reply
  2. Avatar
    Pia September 08, 2017

    “American Made” is getting rave reviews it will open to a minimum of $25 Million and top of at $80 Million.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Anusha September 08, 2017

    Mother has divided the critics with many saying audience will hate it for its sensibilities, it will end up with low Cinemascore and tank at the boxoffice.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      A.A. Roi September 10, 2017

      Critics are obsessed over ‘correctness’ these days. Their opinions rarely reflect audience taste these days when it comes to challenging films.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Govani September 10, 2017

        LOL. Keep telling yourself that.

        There hasn’t been one panned movie that was actually good, and not one universally praised movie that has been bad, and if you’re arguing the opposite, you’re doing to to be contrarian only. This is the same way it’s always been.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          A.A Roi September 13, 2017

          There are plenty of panned movies that are now some of the most highly praised films around (Wizard of Oz, Bladerunner, The Shining etc). And no shortage of universally praised films that are terrible because they were praised for reasons that have little to do with the actual film (Snowpiercer is a good example of this, Out of Africa, now considered rotten on RT by critics and it won the Oscar for Best Picture!!). This has only been amplified by the current clickbait hungry critical consensus of today. I’ve seen plenty of great films panned by critics over the past few years, and nearly as many universally praised films that were meh, again because ‘correctness’ currently triumphs good art.

          Reply
        • Avatar
          A.A. Roi September 13, 2017

          Yes another blind worshipper of the critical consensus offering supplication and obedience to his God.

          Reply
  4. Avatar
    Anu September 08, 2017

    Still very low on “American Made” with those great reviews. I think it will make $25-30 Million Opening weekend because of counter programming & no competition in the drama segment for 40+ age bracket..

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Vicky Martino September 08, 2017

      Mother might gave it some competition.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Vicky September 08, 2017

      Mother might do a good counter programming .

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Anu September 08, 2017

        Mother will be hated by the common audience its made as a thought experiment by the director to prove a point for the critics. It will not connect with common folk.

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Vicky September 08, 2017

          Agreed, it all comes down to 2 films with good RT score but diverging Audience score. I think American made will win that weekend because every review pretty much says its a very enjoyable film with a great Tom Cruise performance.

          Reply
      • Avatar
        Pia September 08, 2017

        Mother was booed at film festivals by some critics.

        Reply
  5. Avatar
    J September 08, 2017

    Thor will do great with a $100 million opening but if it’s as good as the trailers it could do better. As for mother! I think it could overperform to 15 million due to the buzz and great reviews surrounding it. Also,(insert obligatory Pirates 5 comment).

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Anusha September 08, 2017

      Even the critics who liked Mother said it will divide the audience and may under perform.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Anusha September 08, 2017

      Mothers 1st draft was written in just 3 days over the weekend by the director to see what he can come up with. I will tank with low audience score.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      John September 08, 2017

      I’m thinking between $15-20 million opening for mother! due to curiousity factor and reviews good enough to make audiences give it a chance. Legs will be another thing though

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Austin September 11, 2017

      mother currently holds 76% on Rotten Tomatoes and has declined since initial reviews showed up. It may wind up with a low 70% on Rotten Tomatoes in the end, and be unable to play the long game well.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Vicky Martino September 13, 2017

        I saw Mother its for sure in contention for the worst movie of the year pretending to be a good movie. Majority of the audience wont like it. It will sink like a rock at the box office.

        Reply
  6. Avatar
    DangerS September 08, 2017

    Only $100M? Hype has been huge for this. It could easily top Spider-Man: Homecoming’s $117M opening.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Cobacabo September 10, 2017

      It’s a Thor movie. It’s being released in November.

      $100 would be amazing. Industry 101.

      DC drones really need to find a hobby.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        A.A. Roi September 13, 2017

        Its a MCU film.

        Reply
  7. Avatar
    Matt D. September 08, 2017

    Kingsman should be higher, Ninjago should be lower. It would be awesome if Thor: Ragnorok made $100 M OW but I could also see it doing $95 M. Bad Moms 2 could make $35 M OW and finish around $95 M with good word of mouth but if it bad I could see it making $20 M OW and finish around $45-50 M.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      randy September 14, 2017

      Kingsman 2 has terrible marketing that is too similar to the original film, this opening weekend prediction is actually dead on.

      They didn’t expand the appeal outside of the original flick.

      Reply
  8. Avatar
    Jul September 09, 2017

    Still too low for Flatliners !! My guess is 17-20 million.

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    Priya September 09, 2017

    “American made” will make minimum $25 Million Opening weekend once the promotion kicks in stateside and the already good word of mouth spreads.

    Reply
  10. Avatar
    Box office no September 11, 2017

    According to fandango Thor is the most anticipated film of the fall and it has Disney’s most viewed trailer ever this forecast makes literally no sense.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      randy September 14, 2017

      It makes perfect sense, do you think Thor 3 is gonna open above Guardians 2?

      Opening at 100 mil in November would be massive and it will prob do a little better than that.

      Reply

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