Long Range Forecast: ‘Transformers: The Last Knight’

This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes the addition of June 23’s Transformers: The Last Knight, the fifth film in the live action franchise celebrating its ten-year anniversary this summer. As he did with the previous four entries, Michael Bay returns as director. Our initial analysis and forecasts:

Transformers: The Last Knight
Paramount

PROS:

  • The Transformers brand remains hugely popular both in North America and around the world. Regardless of how it performs in the States, this should once again mark a bright financial spot on Paramount’s bottom line when global box office is taken into account.
  • Excluding The Mummy, this stands as one of June’s few summer tentpole options aimed squarely at the male audience. Adult fans and teenage boys alike should once again drive the bulk of business.
  • Twitter activity has been quite respectable, especially in terms of sentiment which registers more positive than it did for Age of Extinction at the same point before release (driven by encouraging trailers thus far).
  • The return of Mark Wahlberg ensures the franchise still has some star power to help it out. Fans may also be intrigued by the addition of Anthony Hopkins, who features prominently in the trailers.
  • For another fan-specific interest: this marks the beginning of the next “era” of the franchise as it’s the first installment to come out of the writers’ room established by the studio to map out where future editions will go.

CONS:

  • As with most series five films deep into their run, some continued diminished returns are expected here. The previous two films each declined from the series’ domestic box office peak (2009’s Revenge of the Fallen with $402 million). With the previous entry specifically generating strong criticism even from the target audience, it’s highly likely this film continues that trend on opening weekend.
  • Being sandwiched in between Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3 could potentially (if not likely) cut into young male viewership.
  • With Spider-Man: HomecomingWar for the Planet of the Apes, and Dunkirk all looming in July, the older male crowd is going to be a tough sell on this sequel.
  • While the franchise remains a pillar among franchises with over 32 million Facebook fans as of this writing, its day-to-day growth is not currently as healthy as it was at the same point before Extinction‘s release. Flixster is also a source of concern relative to past franchise standards.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 continues to track for a huge debut next week. While we aren’t updating our forecast for the film just yet, positive reviews and strong social media buzz continue to line up with comparative metrics supporting a likely domestic opening within the $140-160 million range.
  • First traditional tracking and social media buzz have improved our outlook for Alien: Covenant. Positive reviews will still be important to its success, though.
  • Forecasts for LowridersDiary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul, and Snatched have been lowered slightly as the films have yet to pick up significant momentum in both traditional and social media tracking.

Check out our complete 8-week forecast in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
5/5/2017 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $160,000,000 $400,000,000 4,200 Disney
5/12/2017 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword $23,000,000 $67,000,000 3,500 Warner Bros.
5/12/2017 Lowriders $4,250,000 -15% $10,000,000 -35% 1,500 BH Tilt
5/12/2017 Snatched $21,000,000 -16% $71,000,000 -17% 3,000 Fox
5/19/2017 Alien: Covenant $40,000,000 14% $105,000,000 17% Fox
5/19/2017 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul $7,000,000 -30% $24,000,000 -25% Fox
5/19/2017 Everything, Everything $8,500,000 $26,000,000 Warner Bros.
5/25/2017 Baywatch $35,000,000 FSS
$42,000,000 FSSM
$115,000,000 Paramount
5/26/2017 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $61,000,000 FSS
$75,000,000 FSSM
$190,000,000 Disney
6/2/2017 Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie $28,000,000 $93,500,000 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
6/2/2017 Wonder Woman $83,000,000 $225,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/9/2017 It Comes At Night $12,000,000 $39,000,000 A24
6/9/2017 The Mummy (2017) $50,000,000 $143,000,000 Universal
6/16/2017 47 Meters Down n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
6/16/2017 All Eyez On Me $18,000,000 $49,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
6/16/2017 Cars 3 $49,000,000 $180,000,000 Disney / Pixar
6/16/2017 Rough Night $25,000,000 $80,000,000 Sony
6/23/2017 Transformers: The Last Knight $79,000,000 NEW $195,000,000 NEW Paramount

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Boxoffice Staff

17 Comments

  1. Avatar
    DangerS April 28, 2017

    That might be your only upcoming blockbuster prediction that I could see happening.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    Myself April 28, 2017

    No way cars is going that low but everything else seems pretty reasonable

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    Jay Beezy April 28, 2017

    Question.

    Two weeks ago, you had bumped up your total prediction for Baywatch to 120M. Last week it was brought back down without putting in a percentage change. What’s the reason for that?

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    Don't Mind Me Now April 28, 2017

    KING ARTHUR: LEGEND OF THE SWORD will be lucky to do GHOST IN THE SHELL business at this point. The trailers are a chaotic mess of tone and style, the film appears embarrassed to even be about King Arthur (there is no explicit Arthur imagery in the trailers apart from him pulling the sword) and the look of the film (aside from the Guy Ritchie-esque editing at some points) recalls past fantasy bombs like WARCRAFT and THE GREAT WALL. Audiences did seem to notice the release date delay from March to May (and some are also aware that it was originally set to open last summer), and are thus perceiving Warner Bros.’ apparent lack of confidence in the film. Past historical epics have done well in May (GLADIATOR, TROY) but the most comparable title, KINGDOM OF HEAVEN in 2005 (similar release date, medieval setting, no real stars) was an utter disaster, despite being a Ridley Scott title. A KNIGHT’S TALE, released in a similar timeframe in 2001, also flopped, and the last KING ARTHUR movie (the 2004 Antoine Fuqua film) couldn’t open higher than $15 million despite the then-potent Jerry Bruckheimer branding. In short, there appears to be little interest in the brand, and nothing appears to have been done (or at least, done well) to generate audience interest apart from the brand. Guy Ritchie’s SHERLOCK HOLMES films were not iconic enough to make his name or style marketable (THE MAN FROM U.N.C.L.E. flopped in 2015) and the film’s release date, right between GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 2 and PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN, appears very much suicidal. This is looking at a $12 million opening, $28 million finish.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Taylor May 02, 2017

      Your arguments are always on point, but I actually think KA could overperform. Demand for tickets was high recently in a preview (I thought predicitions would be rise after that) inand people don’t really care for production drama or delays in release as long as a movie is good or appealing. And let’s not forget TMNT opened a lot higher than originally thought even when GOTG was a breakout hit and a beloved movie. Vol 2 will open higher but will fall faster so all is not lost, maybe?

      Reply
  5. Avatar
    J April 29, 2017

    (Sighs again) As I’ve said on every prediction post, you are still underestimating Pirates 5. Again, solid reviews, return to form, a built-in fan base that no one seems to regard and it looks spectacular. 100 million 3 day, and 120 million 4 day.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Jay Beezy April 29, 2017

      Apparently, according to Jeff Sneider, overall reactions were not as positive as the Twitter reactions would indicate.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Jay Beezy April 29, 2017

      Jeff Sneider said that reactions from overall patrons at CinemaCon were not as good as those Twitter reactions suggest.

      Reply
      • Avatar
        J May 01, 2017

        Well now I’m worried. (Remembers when Batman V Superman got great initial reactions)

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Jay Beezy May 01, 2017

          That was kinda different as there weren’t any bloggers involved in early BvS reactions. I’m more reminded of early blogger reactions to Terminator Genisys, where they called it the true sequel to T2 which was total BS. I’m not expecting the same situation here, but I think it’s important to keep expectations in check.

          Reply
  6. Avatar
    Michael April 29, 2017

    No point leaving a comment here guys. This site just deletes them if you criticize their predictions. What a joke!

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Kimbo Slice April 30, 2017

      I’ve noticed that too. I’ve left a few comments and never saw them posted. Very frustrating.
      Mediator needs to chill out. As long as its not nasty, rude, racist or obscene people should be able to comment freely.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Jay Beezy April 30, 2017

      I made a comment (or tried to) about how one of their predictions changed without explanation. It was actually a reversal of a prediction to what it was before. I attempted to post it twice on two different devices, but they wouldn’t take.

      Reply
    • Avatar
      Jay Beezy April 30, 2017

      I’ve made a comment (or tried to) about how one of their updated predictions was reversed without explanation. I submitted the comment on two different devices but neither would take.

      Reply
  7. Avatar
    FP April 29, 2017

    I just got back from Disney California Adventure where they are running a 10-minute preview of Pirates 5. After watching it twice, I can guarantee it will be over $100M opening weekend. From what I saw, the movie is AWE. SOME. People were laughing and cheering and you could tell everyone else was loving it, too.

    Reply
  8. Avatar
    Ben Abramowitz May 03, 2017

    Honestly, am I the only one who thinks Transformers 5 will tank here at the US (but still do gangbusters in China)? Unlike the previous movies, nobody is being fooled by the trailers, and TMNT2 threw everything at the wall and made less than half of the first movie–and that movie also put Michael Bay’s name all over the marketing. If that can happen, then I’m sure Americans will be smart enough to avoid paying for a 5th Transformers movie.

    Reply
  9. Avatar
    J May 04, 2017

    Well what do you know. I said Pirates would make more then predicted, and around 100 million…and box office tracking suggests a 90-100 million Memorial Day weekend opening. Now it’s not set in stone, I know. But if anything it should be more than that.

    Reply

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