Long Range Forecast: ‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’ & ‘Jumanji’ Updates; First Look at ‘Maze Runner: The Death Cure’

This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast takes an advance look at the third and final film in the Maze Runner trilogy, The Death Cure. In addition, with 2017 entering its final weeks, expectations for several key holiday releases continue to shift — namely Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, among a few other updates in the chart below.

Maze Runner: The Death Cure
Fox

PROS:

  • The franchise’s first two installments proved very successful in their box office runs, earning over $660 million worldwide combined. Domestically, the first film was leggy relative to most young adult adaptations as it earned $102.4 million off a $32.5 million first weekend in September 2014.
  • Dylan O’Brien’s fan base will likely turn out again for this film as his profile has continued to strengthen among young women since the second film in 2015. In particular, fans will welcome his return to close out the series following his on-set accident that delayed Death Cure‘s production and release.
  • As the only major studio release currently slated for the final weekend of January, competition for the target audience should be fairly minimal.

CONS:

  • Although it was still a very respectable run, the second film — The Scorch Trials — experienced diminished returns domestically as it opened to $30.3 million and closed out with $81.7 million. This has become a typical trend for the young adult sub-genre in recent years (Divergent being the most high profile example) as similar adaptations have softened in popularity and demand at the box office.
  • Social media buzz is a bit more modest for this entry than it was for Scorch Trials at the same point before release. In particular, Twitter activity has been more muted up to this point. However, with a major holiday corridor between now and release (unlike what the first two films experienced), that could easily change over the next two months.

This Week’s Notes & Other Changes

  • Forecasts for Star Wars: The Last Jedi remain in flux to some degree, a natural state for any film expected to perform at such a high level even when based on conservative projections. Based on various models and tracking trends, our range continues to point toward a domestic opening weekend between $185 million and $215 million. Our official pinpoint forecast for this week remains closer to the high-end of that range, although we’re scaling back expectations slightly more when it comes to the finishing mark. Our current range for the latter figure calls for a North American total likely between $650 million and $750 million.
  • Marketing for Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle has come on strong just over one month from release, and the studio’s decision to sneak the film for special early showings on December 8 displays even more confidence in the product they have on hand. Based on social media performance and tracking trends, we continue to expect a strong counter-programmer over the holidays even in the face of Star Wars: The Last Jedi.
  • Our first forecasts for All the Money in the World are now listed in the chart below.
  • Pitch Perfect 3‘s early marketing spots have focused largely on nostalgic clips from the first two films. Combined with slimmer pre-release social buzz than its predecessor, we’ve lowered our forecasts slightly but continue to expect a healthy run overall as the top female-leaning film on the remainder of this year’s calendar.

The 8-Week Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
12/8/2017 The Disaster Artist n/a n/a n/a A24
12/8/2017 Just Getting Started $8,000,000 $36,000,000 n/a Broad Green Pictures
12/15/2017 Ferdinand $20,000,000 $150,000,000 Fox
12/15/2017 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $210,000,000 -2% $690,000,000 -7% Disney
12/20/2017 The Greatest Showman $11,000,000 $75,000,000 Fox
12/20/2017 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $28,000,000 27% $190,000,000 9% Sony / Columbia
12/22/2017 All the Money in the World $4,000,000 NEW $23,500,000 NEW TriStar
12/22/2017 Downsizing $10,000,000 $59,000,000 Paramount
12/22/2017 Pitch Perfect 3 $34,000,000 -15% $121,000,000 -11% Universal
12/22/2017 Father Figures $7,000,000 $41,000,000 Warner Bros.
12/29/2017 (no films scheduled currently)
1/5/2018 Insidious: The Last Key $19,500,000 $34,500,000 Universal
1/5/2018 Molly’s Game $8,000,000 33% $28,000,000 33% STXfilms
1/12/2018 The Commuter $12,000,000 $31,000,000 Lionsgate
1/12/2018 Condorito: La Pelicula $5,000,000 $12,500,000 Lionsgate
1/12/2018 Paddington 2 $19,000,000 $70,000,000 Warner Bros.
1/12/2018 The Post (expansion) $20,000,000 $90,000,000 Fox
1/12/2018 Proud Mary $17,000,000 $55,000,000 Sony / Screen Gems
1/19/2018 12 Strong $10,000,000 $36,000,000 Warner Bros.
1/19/2018 Den of Thieves $6,500,000 $13,000,000 STXfilms
1/26/2018 Maze Runner: The Death Cure $24,000,000 NEW $65,000,000 NEW Fox
Shawn Robbins

6 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Taylor December 01, 2017

    What about “WHITE BOY RICK”? It’s a wide release according to BoxOfficeMojo.

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    KN December 01, 2017

    I think The Last Jedi will open 190-200 million range and total will be around 600-650 million. Naturally I hope it does better, but for some reason it seems to me that the most hype has gone.

    Reply
  3. Avatar
    DangerS December 01, 2017

    My prediction for TLJ:
    OW: $235M
    DOM TOTAL: $810M

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    heinz December 02, 2017

    TLJ $210 to $220 million maybe.

    Reply
  5. Avatar
    Kn December 02, 2017

    My prediction for The Last Jedi is 190-200 ow and 600 -650 total, rest of the world 750-850. Some I feel the most hype has gone, hopefully not…

    Reply
  6. Avatar
    JoJo December 04, 2017

    Do you ever think of closing this page down? hmmm your predictions are so far from the final results, it’s tragic and useless tbh.

    Reply

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