Long Range Forecast: Disney’s ‘A Wrinkle In Time’

Five films are currently slated for wide release on Friday, March 9, although several remain up in the air in terms of exact release strategies. The one we can safely bet on, though, is Disney’s latest live action adaptation.

Our early analysis and updated forecasts follow:

A Wrinkle In Time
Disney

PROS:

  • Disney has plenty of experience churning out blockbuster hits these days. For the most part, their efforts in the live action adaptation/remake category have proven highly successful. Early trailers indicate this could be another widely appealing entry in that vein thanks to built-in awareness of the source material — not to mention a generally wide open late winter/early spring market with minimal competition.
  • Reese Witherspoon, Oprah Winfrey, Mindy Kaling, and Chris Pine offer plenty of combined star power to aid appeal among adults/parents.
  • Director Ava DuVernay is fresh off wide acclaim for her work behind the camera on 2014’s Selma. As the first black female director to helm a film with a $100 million+ budget — and in tandem with the strong cast of female leads — this film will be generating timely attention upon release. If strong word of mouth follows, a North American run closer to $200 million wouldn’t be out of the question.

CONS:

  • Initial social media buzz isn’t quite as fervent as it was for the likes of 2015’s Cinderella remake or 2014’s Maleficent. Still, Facebook activity is notably ahead of where 2016’s Pete’s Dragon stood at the same point before release.
  • Madeleine L’Engle’s original novel may not be as widely in demand for the big screen treatment — or as popular among today’s target younger audiences — compared to some of Disney’s recent adaptations and remakes or blockbuster young adult fare like The Hunger Games. Strong reviews and a widely appealing final product could change that status quo, though.

This Week’s Other Notes

  • Black Panther‘s initial presales blew past mid-range expectations earlier this week. While caution remains prudent as fans rush to grab tickets for the hotly anticipated Marvel film, the film’s current sales activity combined with a surge of social media momentum now has the it definitively tracking closer to our high-end expectations.
  • Peter Rabbit continues to display very healthy social media trends leading up to next month’s opening. With the growing potential of Black Panther, though, early tracking has shifted to be more conservative on the family-driven film.
  • The Hurricane Heist is set to open March 9, although we’re withholding forecasts until a trailer is available.
  • The Upside is likewise slated for March 9, however, we’re holding off on forecasts due to the lack of a trailer and current ambiguity about its release strategy under the Weinstein Company banner.

8-Week Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
1/19/2018 12 Strong $14,000,000 +8% $45,000,000 +8% 2,900 Warner Bros.
1/19/2018 Den of Thieves $6,500,000 $13,000,000 2,400 STXfilms
1/26/2018 Maze Runner: The Death Cure $24,000,000 $65,000,000 3,700 Fox
2/2/2018 Winchester $10,000,000 $28,000,000 Lionsgate / CBS Films
2/9/2018 The 15:17 to Paris $16,000,000 $50,000,000 Warner Bros.
2/9/2018 Fifty Shades Freed $40,000,000 $100,000,000 Universal
2/9/2018 Peter Rabbit $19,000,000 -24% $78,000,000 -24% Sony / Columbia
2/16/2018 Black Panther $120,000,000 +33% $335,000,000 +22% Disney
2/16/2018 Early Man $4,000,000 $20,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
2/16/2018 Samson $3,500,000 $13,000,000 Pure Flix
2/23/2018 Annihilation $15,000,000 $50,000,000 Paramount
2/23/2018 Every Day n/a n/a Orion
2/23/2018 Game Night $17,000,000 $55,000,000 Warner Bros.
2/23/2018 The War with Grandpa n/a n/a TWC / Dimension
3/2/2018 Death Wish $13,500,000 $34,000,000 Annapurna / MGM
3/2/2018 Red Sparrow $26,000,000 $84,000,000 Fox
3/9/2018 Gringo $3,000,000 NEW $7,500,000 NEW STXfilms
3/9/2018 The Hurricane Heist n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
3/9/2018 Strangers: Prey at Night $4,000,000 NEW $8,500,000 NEW Aviron
3/9/2018 The Upside n/a n/a The Weinstein Company
3/9/2018 A Wrinkle In Time $52,000,000 NEW $154,000,000 NEW Disney
Boxoffice Staff

7 Comments

  1. Avatar
    Huge Jackman January 12, 2018

    I think wrinkle in time probably will get to 150 and probably more but a 50 million I don’t see happening plus since it’s a family movie I highly doubt it will have less than a 2.9 multiplier. If this is good I think this could be as surprising as Kong was last March

    Reply
  2. Avatar
    DangerS January 12, 2018

    I think A Wrinkle in Time will open lower, somewhere in the $30M range and end up grossing just under $100M. Black Panther will have bigger legs.

    Reply
    • Avatar
      Ed January 12, 2018

      Not at all

      Reply
      • Avatar
        Fred January 12, 2018

        What do you mean not at all?

        Reply
        • Avatar
          Ed January 18, 2018

          Still no fool

          Reply
  3. Avatar
    Name January 12, 2018

    Hopefully the budget of Wrinkle is just 100 million.If it’s bigger than that it will probably flop unless it’s a very good movie.However quality doesn’t always guarantee success.Coco is great but it’s only going to make 210 million while Jumanji 330 or something!!That’s ridiculous but shit happen.

    Reply
  4. Avatar
    J January 13, 2018

    The Death Cure is too low. I’m thinking around 30 million. Wrinkle is too high. I’d say around 40 million.

    Reply

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