Long Range Forecast: ‘xXx: The Return of Xander Cage,’ ‘Split,’ ‘The Founder,’ & ‘The Resurrection of Gavin Stone’

Inauguration Day weekend, January 20, will mark a new era for America. While the changes might not be quite that dramatic at the box office, four new wide release titles will “inaugurate” a new year at the box office in earnest. Paramount’s action sequel xXx: The Return of Xander Cage will take on Universal’s horror Split, Weinstein’s biopic The Founder, and High Top Releasing’s comedy The Resurrection of Gavin Stone.

The Return of Xander Cage (Paramount)

PROS:

  • Vin Diesel, one of the most famous and recognizable 21st century action stars, returns in this second xXx installment. The first one in 2002 earned a $44.5 million opening weekend en route to $142.1 million total — adjusted for inflation that’s the modern day equivalent of a $65.9 million opening and $210.5 million total.
  • The trailer has received millions of views and buzz online is growing, probably more so than for other action films to be released this January including Live By Night and Sleepless.

CONS:

  • Excluding the Fast and the Furious franchise and his voice as the animated character Groot in Guardians of the Galaxy, Diesel’s last live-action non-Furious box office hit was The Pacifier all the way back in 2005, a full 11 years ago. Do audiences actually like Diesel or just Dominic Toretto, his character in the Furious series? Diesel has made three live-action non-Furious films this decade, and none were box office hits even though they could have been. 2013’s Riddick earned $42.0 million, 2015’s The Last Witch Hunter made $27.3 million, and the now-playing Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk might not even reach $10 million total at its current rate.
  • The original xXx was released in August, usually a much more financially rewarding time for big-budget action films than January. Although there have been a few January counterexamples in recent years, such as The Revenant and American Sniper, so you never know.

Split (Universal)

PROS:

  • This horror thriller starring James McAvoy as a sadistic kidnapper with 23 different  personalities has garnered buzz for what looks to potentially be an excellent acting performance from McAvoy, in the horror genre which is infamous for usually having the worst acting among the major Hollywood genres.
  • Buzz has been building online at a fairly impressive rate for a horror movie. And early reviews after screening this autumn at the AFI Fest and Fantastic Fast have been positive.

CONS:

  • It will have some competition in the horror department, as Amityville: The Awakening will be released two weeks before and The Bye Bye Man the week prior to Split‘s release. Although horror usually experiences second-weekend drops higher than any other genre except maybe superhero films, if either of those two titles breaks out it could steal much of Split‘s audience.
  • Director M. Night Shyamalan, who was hailed in an early-2000s Newsweek cover story as “the next Spielberg,” was originally a box office superstar after directing such horror smashes as 1999’s The Sixth Sense with $293.5 million (about $495.7 million adjusted for inflation) and 2002’s Signs with $227.9 million (about $337.8 million adjusted for inflation). Since then, quite the opposite. His two films in the past five years were 2015’s The Visit with $65.2 million and 2013’s After Earth with $60.5 million — and the latter starred Will Smith, one of the most bankable stars in Hollywood history.

The Founder (Weinstein Company)

PROS:

  • The biopic about Ray Kroc, the man who purchased McDonald’s in the 1950s and expanded it into the global behemoth it is today, stars Michael Keaton in the lead role. Keaton has been on a career renaissance recently, starring in both of the two most recent Oscar Best Picture winner: 2015’s Spotlight and 2014’s Birdman, for which he was nominated for Best Actor.
  • Everybody knows McDonald’s. Like The Social Network about the founding and expansion of Facebook, the film is starting from a built-in understanding by everyone about how huge the company ends up becoming in the end. The Social Network did well at the box office, though last year’s Steve Jobs didn’t despite everybody knowing how big Apple becomes by the end.

CONS:

  • Keaton hasn’t exactly been on a box office tear recently, with Spotlight having earned $45.0 million and Birdman making $42.3 million. Though it’s a bit of an unfair comparison, since neither were intended to be blockbusters and The Founder isn’t either, it does indicate that Keaton might not be as much of a box office draw as he is a darling of the critics.
  • Originally thought to be a top awards contender including for Best Picture and Actor, awards projections for the film have steadily dropped recently. It may be a complete afterthought by January.

The Resurrection of Gavin Stone (High Top Releasing)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJHwWGWOqnA

PROS:

  • This Christian-themed film about a “bad boy” Hollywood star who finds salvation in Jesus obviously is targeting a narrow demographic, but this year’s Miracles From Heaven shows that occasionally these religious movies can break out to achieve box office success.

CONS:

  • The trailer has almost no views and buzz has been virtually nil. The most recent wide-release religiously themed film was I’m Not Ashamed, which only made $2.0 million despite its plot connections to the Columbine massacre which almost everybody knows about.

Check out the official Boxoffice Pro long range forecast in the table below. Shawn Robbins and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.

Title Wide Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
xXx: The Return of Xander Gage Fri, Jan 20 Paramount $32,000,000 $72,000,000
Split Fri, Jan 20 Universal $16,000,000 $45,000,000
The Founder Fri, Jan 20 Weinstein $9,500,000 $39,000,000
The Resurrection of Gavin Stone Fri, Jan 20 High Top Releasing $1,400,000 $3,000,000
Live By Night Fri, Jan 13 Warner Bros. $25,000,000** $69,000,000
Patriots Day Fri, Jan 13 Lionsgate $23,500,000** $78,000,000
Sleepless Fri, Jan 13 Open Road Films $13,000,000** $42,000,000
Monster Trucks Fri, Jan 13 Paramount $12,000,000** $22,000,000
The Bye Bye Man Fri, Jan 13 STX Entertainment $8,000,000** $17,000,000
Underworld: Blood Wars Fri, Jan 6 Sony / Screen Gems $17,000,000 $42,000,000
Amityville: The Awakening Fri, Jan 6 Weinstein / Dimension $8,000,000 $17,000,000
Why Him? Fri, Dec 23 Fox $11,000,000 $54,000,000
Passengers Wed, Dec 21 Sony / Columbia $38,000,000* $177,000,000
Sing Wed, Dec 21 Universal $24,000,000* $115,000,000
Assassin’s Creed Wed, Dec 21 Fox $13,000,000* $56,000,000
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Fri, Dec 16 Disney $135,000,000 $405,000,000
Collateral Beauty Fri, Dec 16 Warner Bros. $13,000,000 $75,000,000
Office Christmas Party Fri, Dec 9 Paramount $17,000,000 $70,000,000
Miss Sloane Fri, Dec 9 EuropaCorp $8,000,000 $26,000,000
Incarnate Fri, Dec 2 High Top Releasing $4,000,000 $8,000,000
* = 3-day weekend (Friday through Sunday)

**= 4-day weekend (Friday through Monday)