Long Range Forecast: ‘Deepwater Horizon,’ ‘Masterminds,’ ‘The Edge of Seventeen’ & ‘Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children’

On September 30, four new wide releases will compete for the top spot. Lionsgate’s Deepwater Horizon tells the true story of the infamous oil rig explosion as an action drama. Relativity Media’s Masterminds plays for the comedy crowd. STX Entertainment’s The Edge of Seventeen aims for the teenagers with their coming-of-age story. And Fox’s Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children tries to scare up a little magic with their family fantasy.

Deepwater Horizon (Lionsgate)

PROS:

• The actual Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion in April 2010 killed 11 workers, infamously took almost three months to plug, and has been measured as the largest oil spill and worst environmental disaster in U.S. history. The story captivated the nation at the time, providing a familiarity that may inspire audiences to see the film.
• Of star Mark Wahlberg’s five most recent films, three reached $125 million or more at the box office: Daddy’s Home, Transformers: Age of Extinction, and Lone Survivor.

CONS:

• Often films about tragedies and disasters can be a difficult subject that many steer clear from, especially when much of the potential audience remembers it vividly. Films such as United 93 about the September 11 attacks or Munich about the hostages at the Olympics hostages earned rave reviews but were not huge box office hits. In particular, this film might hit too close to home for audiences in the states around the Gulf of Mexico.
• The film may have audiences chipped off by two other films released in the preceding weeks, both dramas about recent Americans facing life-or-death issues: Sully and Snowden.

Masterminds (Relativity Media)

PROS:

• The cast of Kristen Wiig, Zach Galifianakis, Jason Sudeikis, and Owen Wilson is one of the top comedy teams you could ask for. Individually, they’ve appeared in a number of the highest-grossing live action comedies of the past few years, including Bridesmaids, Ghostbusters, The Hangover Part II, Due Date, We’re the Millers, and Horrible Bosses.

CONS:

• The trailer has received a poor reception online, with many criticizing its seeming lack of originality and crude humor.
• The film was originally scheduled for release in July 2015, but was pushed back more than once as distributor Relativity Media faced bankruptcy. The studio hasn’t had a film gross more than $40 million since Free Birds back in 2013, and this title seems unlikely to break that streak.

The Edge of Seventeen (STX Entertainment)

PROS:

• The coming of age comedy-drama could appeal to teenagers, especially teenage girls, a demographic that hasn’t had a wide release film aimed primarily at them for several months by late September.

CONS:

• Star Hailee Steinfeld has had box office hits with Pitch Perfect 2 and True Grit, but as part of an ensemble. It remains to be seen whether she can bring in audiences as a lead.
• Reception online has been muted, with just barely more than a million YouTube views for the trailer after more than two weeks.

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (Fox)

PROS:

• The original children’s novels by Ransom Riggs made the New York Times bestseller list, with the first installment having sold more than two million copies and the second installment launching with a 250,000 print run.
• Director Tim Burton is at the helm, having declined to direct this summer’s Alice Through the Looking Glass sequel to his hugely successful Alice in Wonderland to direct this film instead. Burton has a passionate fan base which will turn out to see any of his movies, and his distinctive “oddball” visual directorial style fits perfectly with the story.

CONS:

• While the children’s books have certainly been successful, they are nowhere near on the level of a Harry Potter or Hunger Games or Divergent, which all saw nine-digit grosses at the box office (the most recent Divergent installment Allegiant the lone exception). In fact, this might have trouble even reaching the grosses of somewhat-successful young adult adaptations such as the Percy Jackson and Maze Runner series.

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.