MLK Early 4-Day Estimates: ‘Jumanji’ ($30M+) & ‘The Post’ ($20M) Leading as Winter Storm Hunter Moves Across East Coast
Saturday Update: Winter Storm Hunter appears to be having a larger-than-expected impact across areas of the midwest, southeast, and northeast to begin this holiday weekend as Friday estimates for a number of key titles came in well below expectations. The hope is that much of the weather in these often-overlooked areas of the country — which are less equipped to deal with winter weather than major northern cities — will clear up throughout the weekend, but for now projections are even more volatile than usual as a significant portion of the middle-to-eastern United States has been immobilized by snow and ice.
That being said, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle came in at an unsurprising first place yesterday with another $6.125 million in the bank, giving it $262.3 million domestically to date. Four-day estimates could reach as high as $30-32 million, although Sony is a bit more conservative with a $28.5-29.0 million projection.
The Post met expectations with a solid $5.9 million nationwide opening day, no doubt thanks to playing more strongly in urban cities where its target audiences are based away from much of the weather-affected regions so far this weekend. For the four-day, the film remains on track for around $20 million or slightly more.
The Commuter took in $4.56 million yesterday, proving a bit more frontloaded to Thursday night than is typical for a non-franchise film. Early projections from Lionsgate put the Liam Neeson thriller around $14.6 million for the four-day.
Insidious: The Last Key added another $3.4 million yesterday to give it an eight-day haul of $39.6 million. We’re expecting around $12 million for the four-day frame.
Proud Mary came in below tracking with a $3.175 million opening day, although it could easily prove to make up ground throughout the weekend with MLK Day inevitably boosting its internal multiplier. The studio projects between $11.3-12 million through Monday.
The Greatest Showman continues to hold incredibly well (another strong player in major cities) with $3.05 million yesterday and an updated cume of $85.8 million. Its four-day take is expected to be virtually flat with last weekend’s three-day earnings, aiming for around $13.7 million.
Star Wars: The Last Jedi took in $2.723 million, bringing its domestic tally up to $583 million. The film lost more theaters than expected going into the crowded weekend, although the holiday play should still help it net around $14 million for the four-day frame as its push toward becoming the sixth film in history to cross $600 million domestically continues.
Meanwhile, Paddington 2 was another under-performer on Friday as it took in $2.4 million — over 48 percent less than its predecessor’s opening day three years ago. Again, as a family film, this may play much stronger outside major cities as the weekend moves on, but it will be a challenge to meet pre-release expectations at this point. We’re projecting around $12.2 million for the four-day, with more optimistic ranges topping out around $13-14 million.
Early four-day estimates are below. Look for updated three- and four-day estimates from all studios on Sunday and Monday.
|1||Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle||$32,000,000||-14%||3,849||48||$8,314||$288,135,909||4||Sony / Columbia|
|2||The Post||$20,000,000||1078%||2,819||2783||$7,095||$24,489,237||4||20th Century Fox|
|4||Star Wars: The Last Jedi||$14,000,000||-41%||3,090||-1142||$4,531||$594,274,584||5||Disney|
|5||The Greatest Showman||$13,700,000||-1%||2,938||-404||$4,663||$96,453,868||4||Fox|
|6||Paddington 2||$12,200,000||—||3,702||—||$3,296||$12,200,000||1||Warner Bros.|
|7||Proud Mary||$12,100,000||—||2,125||—||$5,694||$12,100,000||1||Sony / Screen Gems|
|8||Insidious: The Last Key||$12,000,000||-59%||3,150||34||$3,810||$48,241,140||2||Universal|
|9||Darkest Hour||$5,600,000||-7%||1,693||-40||$3,308||$36,815,552||8||Focus Features|
|10||Pitch Perfect 3||$5,600,000||-46%||2,505||-953||$2,236||$94,599,225||4||Universal|
|12||Molly’s Game||$4,600,000||-33%||1,708||100||$2,693||$21,429,097||3||STX Entertainment|
|14||Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri||$2,800,000||297%||1,022||712||$2,740||$29,008,459||14||Fox Searchlight|
|15||All the Money in the World||$1,500,000||-58%||1,408||-715||$1,065||$23,326,060||3||Sony / TriStar|
|2||The Shape of Water||$3,300,000||5%||723||-81||$4,564||$27,021,892||7||Fox Searchlight|
|7||Condorito: La Pelicula||$285,000||—||153||—||$1,863||$285,000||1||Lionsgate / Pantelion|
|8||Daddy’s Home 2||$185,000||-61%||201||-228||$920||$103,236,955||10||Paramount|
|1||Hostiles||$320,000||19%||42||-4||$7,619||$865,470||4||Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures|
Friday Update #2: Contrary to earlier reports from the studio, Warner Bros. has now confirmed that Paddington 2 opened to $325,000 domestically last night. That keeps the film on track to rank highly in its debut this weekend, coming in 86 percent above the first Paddington‘s $175,000 debut before MLK weekend in 2015, while coming in just 7 percent behind Ferdinand‘s recent $350,000 early start before Christmas.
Friday Update: Sources report that The Post bowed to a healthy $775,000 from Thursday night’s first shows of the film’s nationwide expansion. By comparison, that comes in 38 percent ahead of Patriots Day‘s $560,000 Thursday night expansion ahead of MLK weekend last year, as well as 55 percent ahead of Bridge of Spies‘ $500,000 Thursday night start in October 2015. Based on these early results, the film’s four-day weekend trajectory remains on pace with our earlier forecasts.
Close behind was The Commuter as it came in a bit stronger than expected with $700,000 last night. Projections are in flux at this point as that doubled the $350,000 earned by Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit — although the latter film opened four years ago before Thursday night shows had become so prolific among audiences.
Meanwhile, a Warner Bros. representative tells Boxoffice that Paddington 2‘s earnings from last night’s shows won’t likely be released due to its nature as a kids’ movie, although we still expect it will be a strong performer over the course of the holiday frame. If a gross is reported elsewhere, we’ll update this post accordingly.
The weekend’s other newcomer — Sony’s Proud Mary — did not hold Thursday night showings.
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