MLK Early 4-Day Estimates: ‘Jumanji’ ($30M+) & ‘The Post’ ($20M) Leading as Winter Storm Hunter Moves Across East Coast

Saturday Update: Winter Storm Hunter appears to be having a larger-than-expected impact across areas of the midwest, southeast, and northeast to begin this holiday weekend as Friday estimates for a number of key titles came in well below expectations. The hope is that much of the weather in these often-overlooked areas of the country — which are less equipped to deal with winter weather than major northern cities — will clear up throughout the weekend, but for now projections are even more volatile than usual as a significant portion of the middle-to-eastern United States has been immobilized by snow and ice.

That being said, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle came in at an unsurprising first place yesterday with another $6.125 million in the bank, giving it $262.3 million domestically to date. Four-day estimates could reach as high as $30-32 million, although Sony is a bit more conservative with a $28.5-29.0 million projection.

The Post met expectations with a solid $5.9 million nationwide opening day, no doubt thanks to playing more strongly in urban cities where its target audiences are based away from much of the weather-affected regions so far this weekend.  For the four-day, the film remains on track for around $20 million or slightly more.

The Commuter took in $4.56 million yesterday, proving a bit more frontloaded to Thursday night than is typical for a non-franchise film. Early projections from Lionsgate put the Liam Neeson thriller around $14.6 million for the four-day.

Insidious: The Last Key added another $3.4 million yesterday to give it an eight-day haul of $39.6 million. We’re expecting around $12 million for the four-day frame.

Proud Mary came in below tracking with a $3.175 million opening day, although it could easily prove to make up ground throughout the weekend with MLK Day inevitably boosting its internal multiplier. The studio projects between $11.3-12 million through Monday.

The Greatest Showman continues to hold incredibly well (another strong player in major cities) with $3.05 million yesterday and an updated cume of $85.8 million. Its four-day take is expected to be virtually flat with last weekend’s three-day earnings, aiming for around $13.7 million.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi took in $2.723 million, bringing its domestic tally up to $583 million. The film lost more theaters than expected going into the crowded weekend, although the holiday play should still help it net around $14 million for the four-day frame as its push toward becoming the sixth film in history to cross $600 million domestically continues.

Meanwhile, Paddington 2 was another under-performer on Friday as it took in $2.4 million — over 48 percent less than its predecessor’s opening day three years ago. Again, as a family film, this may play much stronger outside major cities as the weekend moves on, but it will be a challenge to meet pre-release expectations at this point. We’re projecting around $12.2 million for the four-day, with more optimistic ranges topping out around $13-14 million.

Early four-day estimates are below. Look for updated three- and four-day estimates from all studios on Sunday and Monday.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle $32,000,000 -14% 3,849 48 $8,314 $288,135,909 4 Sony / Columbia
2 The Post $20,000,000 1078% 2,819 2783 $7,095 $24,489,237 4 20th Century Fox
3 The Commuter $14,500,000 2,892 $5,014 $14,500,000 1 Lionsgate
4 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $14,000,000 -41% 3,090 -1142 $4,531 $594,274,584 5 Disney
5 The Greatest Showman $13,700,000 -1% 2,938 -404 $4,663 $96,453,868 4 Fox
6 Paddington 2 $12,200,000 3,702 $3,296 $12,200,000 1 Warner Bros.
7 Proud Mary $12,100,000 2,125 $5,694 $12,100,000 1 Sony / Screen Gems
8 Insidious: The Last Key $12,000,000 -59% 3,150 34 $3,810 $48,241,140 2 Universal
9 Darkest Hour $5,600,000 -7% 1,693 -40 $3,308 $36,815,552 8 Focus Features
10 Pitch Perfect 3 $5,600,000 -46% 2,505 -953 $2,236 $94,599,225 4 Universal
11 Coco $4,700,000 -13% 1,362 -532 $3,451 $198,243,440 8 Disney
12 Molly’s Game $4,600,000 -33% 1,708 100 $2,693 $21,429,097 3 STX Entertainment
13 Ferdinand $4,000,000 -48% 2,154 -1002 $1,857 $76,028,094 5 Fox
14 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri $2,800,000 297% 1,022 712 $2,740 $29,008,459 14 Fox Searchlight
15 All the Money in the World $1,500,000 -58% 1,408 -715 $1,065 $23,326,060 3 Sony / TriStar

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 I, Tonya $4,100,000 68% 517 261 $7,930 $10,893,736 6 Neon
2 The Shape of Water $3,300,000 5% 723 -81 $4,564 $27,021,892 7 Fox Searchlight
3 Wonder (2017) $1,300,000 -45% 970 -288 $1,340 $128,688,574 9 Lionsgate
4 Marshall $620,000 11235% 378 337 $1,640 $10,104,188 14 Open Road
5 Thor: Ragnarok $475,000 -8% 242 -83 $1,963 $313,116,320 11 Disney
6 Downsizing $360,000 -84% 412 -1608 $874 $24,158,239 4 Paramount
7 Condorito: La Pelicula $285,000 153 $1,863 $285,000 1 Lionsgate / Pantelion
8 Daddy’s Home 2 $185,000 -61% 201 -228 $920 $103,236,955 10 Paramount

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Hostiles $320,000 19% 42 -4 $7,619 $865,470 4 Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures

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Friday Update #2: Contrary to earlier reports from the studio, Warner Bros. has now confirmed that Paddington 2 opened to $325,000 domestically last night. That keeps the film on track to rank highly in its debut this weekend, coming in 86 percent above the first Paddington‘s $175,000 debut before MLK weekend in 2015, while coming in just 7 percent behind Ferdinand‘s recent $350,000 early start before Christmas.

Friday Update: Sources report that The Post bowed to a healthy $775,000 from Thursday night’s first shows of the film’s nationwide expansion. By comparison, that comes in 38 percent ahead of Patriots Day‘s $560,000 Thursday night expansion ahead of MLK weekend last year, as well as 55 percent ahead of Bridge of Spies‘ $500,000 Thursday night start in October 2015. Based on these early results, the film’s four-day weekend trajectory remains on pace with our earlier forecasts.

Close behind was The Commuter as it came in a bit stronger than expected with $700,000 last night. Projections are in flux at this point as that doubled the $350,000 earned by Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit — although the latter film opened four years ago before Thursday night shows had become so prolific among audiences.

Meanwhile, a Warner Bros. representative tells Boxoffice that Paddington 2‘s earnings from last night’s shows won’t likely be released due to its nature as a kids’ movie, although we still expect it will be a strong performer over the course of the holiday frame. If a gross is reported elsewhere, we’ll update this post accordingly.

The weekend’s other newcomer — Sony’s Proud Mary — did not hold Thursday night showings.

Follow us here and on Twitter for official Friday estimates and early weekend estimates on Saturday morning.

Boxoffice Staff

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