Tweet counts and analysis for Monday, February 1st.

Twitter Box Office Update - February 2nd, 2010

on February 02, 2010

Total tweets for February 5th Openers

Dear John had an eye-opening 2,103 tweets reference it yesterday on Twitter, good enough for the 6th largest Monday in my records since September of last year. I had said in my last column just how strong of a lead up week it had last week but even with that this is highly impressive. In eyeballing the actual tweets and profile pictures they seem to be made up of a high percentage of teen women, with some older women and very few men. A lot of recognition of the book and its author is also present and ties to The Notebook. This is a solid sign since The Notebook did very well at the Box Office and rentals. Still, this demographic and hype (not only around the book ala mini-Twilight effect, but also around Channing Tatum ala Megan Fox-effect from Jennifer's Body) is a recipe for a massive ratio. In terms of comparison, Jennifer's Body had 975 tweets on its Monday before release, and Whip It had 624. I chose those two because of the mass appeal of one star to a younger audience (Fox in Jennifer's Body) and its connection to the young female Twitter user (Whip It). I do still think there will be a higher percentage of older women wanting to see this than either of my two comparisons which should bring it down somewhat. My early estimate will be for a 1,200 - 1,500 ratio. Even with that in mind, it appears to be on track for a 12,000+ tweet week which might push it to high single digits to low double digit millions for Friday

From Paris With Love started the week with a solid 509 tweets. The film is trying to appeal to young to middle-aged males with no desire to line up for Dear John, and it no doubt hopes that the waning power of Avatar or the Super Bowl weekend won't affect its chances. In terms of comparisons, Surrogates had 452 tweets its Monday before release, Law Abiding Citizen had 623, Men Who Stare At Goats had 495, Armored had 173, and Edge of Darkness had 545. Early days yet but it seems on course for ~3,000 tweets for the week, and assuming a ~600-700 ratio; low to mid double digits for the weekend.

Check back tomorrow to see the Tuesday numbers and more comparisons.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets012910.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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