Tweet counts and analysis for Monday, February 8th.

Twitter Box Office Update - February 9th, 2010

on February 09, 2010

Total tweets for February 12th Openers

upcoming021210.jpgPercy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief really exploded on Monday with a whopping 3,124 tweets. That is simply massive, and blew Dear John out of the water as the 4th biggest Monday since last September after New Moon, Avatar and Where the Wild Things Are. I actually think Wild Things might be a great comparison here, it got 3,321 tweets on its first Monday on its way to 20,684 for the full week. Percy Jackson should not draw as many for midnight showings which will give it a weaker Thursday and should put it in line for a ~15,000 tweet week. There definitely is a lot of buzz out there for the film, but some of the noise is also coming from fans of the books sounding off about the film and their thoughts, not necessarily that they are going to be seeing it (similar to Where The Wild Things Are). As such I'm going to revise my ratio estimate way up to be ~1,750 which is more in line with Wild Things' 1,724. As of right now a $7 million Friday seems to be in the works.

Valentine's Day also had a very strong showing on Monday with 2,234 tweets. Not as large as Percy Jackson but considering the expected lower ratio it should translate to a much larger weekend. In terms of comparisons, Dear John had 2,103 tweets on its Monday before release and that might prove to be the best comparison here. The ratio should be in line with that if not slightly lower here since I'd expect the film to skew to older audiences. Expect a 10,000 - 12,000 tweets week here for Valentine's Day which should afford it a $12 million+ opening day. Looking very rosy for its potential.

Lastly, not to be left out in the cold, The Wolfman also had a very strong debut with 969 tweets. This too is very impressive for the film and points to a full week tally in the region of 6,500+. Continuing with the comparisons I drew yesterday, Law Abiding Citizen had 623 tweets its Monday before release, and Sherlock Holmes had 1,675. One cautionary warning about Sherlock Holmes comparisons is that during the Christmas week tweet levels were severely suppressed which showed in the ratios for the films. In other words Holmes would have received a lot more tweets had it not been for the holiday period, just how much more is purely speculation but I'd venture to say at least double. Bringing it back here for Wolfman , it would appear as though it could be in line for a $7 - $8 million Friday.

Check back tomorrow to see the Tuesday numbers and more comparisons. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets020510.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

Tags: twitter, percy jackson, the wolfman, valentine's day

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