After a couple super-charged weeks at the Box Office things settle down a bit this week as two films open with much more modest expectations: Cop Out and The Crazies.
Cop Out had 1,091 tweets reference it last week on Twitter. A far cry from the last two weeks when 5,000+ became the norm for three of the four releases. Still, the film is going to appeal to a mixture of young and older audiences which should keep its ratio down. Notable comparisons include Surrogates which had 810 tweets its week before release, Men Who Stare At Goats had 1,112, and From Paris With Love had 1,061. Much of its early buzz has also been negative which is not a good sign for its ratio potential. These early signs point to a opening ratio in the region of 750 - 850 and somewhere between $4 to $5 million on Friday.
The Crazies had an impressive 2,122 tweets last week as it almost doubled Cop Out's numbers. The horror genre has been pretty stable at a 1,000+ ratio in the past and throw in the relatively low theatre count as we could be in for a 1,300 to 1,500 ratio come Friday. Notable comparisons include Saw VI which had 1,392 tweets in its week before release, and The Fourth Kind which had 1,432. With the higher ratio here likely it would seem as though it would be heading for a $4 - $5 million Friday.
Check back Monday night for analysis of the Monday tweet totals. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)
The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.