Total tweets for February 26th Openers
Cop Out experienced the typical Wednesday slum that many films attracting an older audience seem to share as it dropped to 619 tweets, down from 707 tweets on Tuesday. With this in mind it is likely going to fall short of my initial estimate of 3,000+ tweets, as ~2,750 seems more likely at this point. In looking around at comparisons, Surrogates had 742 tweets its Wednesday before release, Men Who Stare At Goats had 793, and From Paris With Love had 806. The Wednesday drop has me thinking that this is indeed going to draw an older crowd than I had expected. Makes sense considering Willis' pedigree and Morgan's appeal to the 30 Rock audience. With this in mind I am going to drop my ratio expectations here slightly to the 500-600 range and predict a $5.5 million Friday and $16.5 million weekend.
The Crazies once again had a very modest increase on Wednesday as it rose 1,068 tweets, up from Tuesday's 974 tweets. In comparison, Saw VI had 1,926 tweets in its Wednesday before release, The Fourth Kind had 873, Daybreakers had 1,312, and Legion had 986. Being a horror, it should get close to a 100% bump today which still puts it in line for ~5,000 tweets for the week. Its percentage jumps this week have been most similar to The Fourth Kind of the above comparisons and while I don't see a 750 ratio, I will lower my expected number to the 875 mark. Expect a $5.50 million Friday and $13.5 million over the weekend.
Check back tomorrow to see the Thursday's numbers and the final weekend predictions. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)
The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.