Tweet counts and analysis for Monday, March 8th.

Twitter Box Office Update - March 9th, 2010

on March 09, 2010

Total tweets for March 12th Openers

Green Zone started off the week with a decent 480 tweets on Monday. It had been tracking very poorly in past weeks but has at least picked it up to a more respectable level for its release week. This is obviously thanks in no small part to the TV assault I've seen in recent days. By comparison, Surrogates had 452 tweets on its Monday before release, Law Abiding Citizen had 623 and Edge of Darkness had 545. Given these comparisons and their expansion from Monday to release date it appears Green Zone should be in line for 3,000 to 3,200 tweets for the week. At this point I'd expect a ~600 ratio for the film which would mean a $5 - $6 million Friday.

Our Family Wedding was the lowest of the four openers with 293 tweets on Monday. The film is opening in only ~1,500 theaters which should push its ratio up slightly but the romantic comedy genre has been pretty stable in the 400 to 600 range. The best comparisions will likely be: Did You Here About the Morgans which had 159 tweets its Monday before release, Leap Year had 235, When In Rome had 272. It should be in line for about 2,000 tweets for the week, and assuming a ratio on the higher end of norm at 600 it should be in line for a ~$3 million Friday.

Remember Me and its mass of Twilight-driven buzz dominated on Monday with 1,876 tweets. No real surprise here since it has been tracking well for over 4 weeks now. There really is no great direct genre comparisons here, but Jennifer's Body makes for an interesting comparison since it had massive buzz driven moreso by Megan Fox than anything else, similar to Pattinson's effect here. That film had 975 tweets on its Monday before release and went on to have a week ratio of 1,815. Remember Me should be in line for around 11,000 tweets by the end of the week at this pace, and even assuming a 2,000 ratio similar to Jennifer's Body it is going to likely come in at around $5 to $6 million on Friday.

Lastly, She's Out Of My League scored a very respectable 390 tweets on Monday. This is actually quite impressive considering the fact that that puts it ahead of both When In Rome (272), and Leap Year (235). It should be on course for a ~2,500 tweets week which is a significant jump from where I saw it as being after last weekend. It might be on course for a ~$4 million Friday.

Check back tomorrow to see the Tuesday numbers and more comparisons. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets030510.gifThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

Tags: our family wedding, green zone, remember me, she's out of my league

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