Tweet counts and analysis for Wednesday, March 10th.

Twitter Box Office Update - March 11th, 2010

on March 11, 2010

Total tweets for March 12th Openers

Green Zone had a nice bump on Wednesday to 878 tweets, up from Tuesday's 568 tweets. By comparison, Surrogates had 742 tweets on its Wednesday before release, Law Abiding Citizen had 702 and Edge of Darkness had 1,291. This bump was good to see, especially on Wednesday when most movie skewing older tend to have weak percentage increases. With this in mind I think its Friday is going to come in at $6 million, which will lead to $17.5 million over the weekend.

Our Family Wedding increased to 643 tweets on Wednesday, up from Tuesday's 459 tweets. Another solid tally which puts it firmly ahead of most of the totals of the films I've been using as a benchmark: Did You Here About the Morgans? had 179 tweets its Wednesday before release, Leap Year had 344, When In Rome had 595. The big caveat here is its theater count which is estimated at 1,500. This figure has proven in the past to be inversely related to ratios, ie generally the lower the number of theaters the higher the ratio. Expect a ratio of ~800 and around $3 million on Friday and $8 million for the full weekend.

Remember Me sizzled yet again with an impressive 3,278 tweets on Wednesday, up from 2,214 tweets on Tuesday. The puts it in the top 10 of all films since last September in terms of buzz. The draw of Pattinson on Twitter is undeniable, but the ratio here is going to be tricky. Right now I'll stick with my estimate of 2,500 from yesterday and go ahead and predict a $5 million Friday and $12.5 million for the weekend. However, depends on how it explodes today (it's already at 850 tweets by 8:30AM) this number might definitely see a bump up by a few million.

Bringing up the rear, She's Out Of My League had 645 tweets on Wednesday, up from 571 tweets on Tuesday. A weak increase from Tuesday which is consistent with many romantic comedies and is a good sign for it having a typical 500-600 ratio. Given its trajectory towards a 2,400 tweet week I'd say a $3.75 million Friday and $10.5 million for the weekend are in order.

Check back tomorrow to see the Thursday's numbers and the final weekend predictions. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets030510.gifThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

Tags: green zone, our family wedding, remember me, she's out of my league

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