Opening this upcoming week we have three new wide releases: Diary
Of A Wimpy Kid, Repo Men, and The
Diary Of A Wimpy Kid had 864 tweets on its lead-up frame last week. The live action flick based on the popular books looks to attract young kids and teens, generally not the largest users of Twitter, a fact which should lead to a relatively low ratio of the weekend. In looking at similarly targeted past films, The Spy Next Door had 376 tweets its week before release, and The Tooth Fairy had 1,247. The film should come in with a ratio between 450 and 550 and 2,200 to 2,500 total tweets. This should allow it to reach ~$4 million on next Friday.
Repo Men was the strongest of the new openers last week with 1,400 total tweets. However, seeing as though it is a Sci-Fi film and in the lowest amount of theaters it will no doubt have the highest ratio. Similar past films include: Surrogates which had 810 tweets its week before release, The Fourth Kind had 1,432, Daybreakers had 1,733. The genre and lowish theater count should ensure it has a ratio of 1,000+. Considering it will likely have 3,000 - 3,500 tweets it should be in store for a $2.5 - $3 million Friday.
Lastly, The Bounty Hunter had 1,172 tweets last week. Seems like a pretty low number but by comparison Couples Retreat had 1,102 tweets its week before release, Law Abiding Citizen had 902, and It's Complicated had 881. The film should hit a wide demographic, with a strong appeal to the 35 and older crowd which will help to keep its ratio on the low side. I would expect something in the range of a 300-400 ratio from its ~3,500 tweets for a $9 to $10 million Friday.
Check back Monday night for analysis of the Monday tweet totals. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)
The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.