Tweet counts and analysis for Tuesday, March 23rd.

Twitter Box Office Update - March 24th, 2010

on March 24, 2010

Total tweets for March 26th Openers

Hot Tub Time Machine increased its tweet volume to 1,744 on Tuesday, up from 1,299 tweets on Monday. A very solid increase which is right in line with my week projection of ~8,000. There really is no great direct comparison here for this film because of its combination of genre, advertising and cultural contagion for its title. That having been said it is a lock for a ~1,500 ratio based on those above facts. Today's tally will be very indicative of both its final tweet count and Box Office potential but right now a weekend in the teens appears likely.

How to Train Your Dragon really soared on Tuesday with 1,701 tweets, up from 1,167 tweets on Monday. By comparison Diary Of A Wimpy Kid had 347 its Tuesday before release, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs had 542 and A Christmas Carol had 1,110. That Tuesday bump was one of the strongest I have seen in the genre which definitely bodes well for its potential. I did some digging and its spam levels are pretty high for the genre which will definitely ensure a higher ratio than Wimpy Kid and Cloudy, Carol might be a better comparison or slightly less. At this point a low to mid teen opening Friday appears likely.

Also, for anyone that is interested about how I gauge spam levels, basically I discount tweets which have a link in them. Now not all tweets with links are spam, but almost all spam tweets contain a link. By looking at the ratio of total tweets to tweets with links gives a good quick snapshot on spam.

Check back tomorrow to see the Wednesday numbers and more comparisons. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets031910.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

Tags: hot tub time machine, how to train your dragon

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