Total tweets for March 26th Openers
Hot Tub Time Machine remained relatively flat on Wednesday as it had the slightest of bumps to 1,834, up from 1,744 on Tuesday. This slowing down on Wednesday might drop its potential a bit since it will now struggle to hit 8,000 tweets for the week. I'm going to tone down my expected ratio to ~1,250 and go ahead and predict a $6 million Friday and $16.5 million for the weekend.
How to Train Your Dragon experienced the typical Wednesday slowdown of films in its genre as it dropped to 1,698 tweets, down from Tuesday's 1,701 tweets. By comparison, Diary of a Wimpy Kid had 494 its Wednesday before release, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs had 524 and A Christmas Carol had 1,088. It seems to be on track for 6,750 tweets for the week thanks to its huge Tuesday bump. Its spam levels are definitely higher than most animated films I've tracked thanks to the added attention it has received which is going to push its ratio up a ways. I'm thinking Christmas Carol's 532 might be a solid benchmark here. As such I'll go ahead and predict a 550 ratio which should allow it to hit $12.75 million on Friday and $46 million for the full weekend.
Check back tomorrow to see the Thursday numbers and final weekend predictions. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)
The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.