Tweet counts and analysis for Monday, March 29th.

Twitter Box Office Update - March 30th, 2010

on March 30, 2010

Total tweets for April 2nd Openers

The Last Song kicked off with 2,221 tweets on Monday. Huge yes but the film is playing directly to the Twitter sweet-spot of young girls. Add in Miley Cyrus and its a buzz-magnet. Comparisons will be difficult here because this is a Wednesday opener. This will draw its ratio down from where it would have been for a Friday opener since there are two less days of tweets. Looking at past Wednesday openers they came it at a ratio of about ~60% of where I would have expected them to be at for a full week opener. So let's figure out that full week ratio potential and take 60% of it.

Its pretty certain that it will be a ways higher than Dear John's 884 ratio. Remember Me springs to mind, and that saw a ratio of just over 3,000, however, the Twilight nation's fanbase is quite a bit more rampant, and Miley Cyrus' core draw of tweens are a bit on the young end of the Twitter spectrum. Whip It also played to a very similar demographic and came in with a 2,955 ratio which is also telling, though its very low theatre count (1,720) was a factor with that too. I'd say let's go with a ratio estimate of 1,350 for Wednesday (based on a ~2,250 ratio prediction had it been a Friday opener), Given its ~2,200 tweets on Monday it should be able to score 5,500 tweets by end of day today for the week and take in $4 million on Wednesday at the Box Office, and mid-teens by the end of the weekend.

Clash of the Titans was hugely impressive on Monday as it secured 2,632 tweets. By comparison 2012 had 2,290 its Monday before release, and Avatar had 4,440. With such a healthy Monday and a holiday on Friday and 8PM showings it is going to skyrocket later in the week, which should allow it to hit ~19,000 tweets for the week. The Easter holiday will be interesting to gauge, but perhaps even moreso will be the 8PM shows on Thursday which will make Twitter heat up that much earlier. Avatar's buzz and ratio was indeed higher but that had much more story around it and questions about flopping and Cameron which this film doesn't have. I would expect to see it come in at around the ~650 ratio mark which would allow it to hit $30 million for Friday and ~$70 million for the weekend.

Lastly, Why Did I Get Married Too also had a very respectable outing with 1,059 tweets on Monday. I had compared it to Our Family Wedding on Sunday and while valid, I didn't discount the fact that it is in much more theatres than Wedding which will help to normalize the effect of Tyler Perry's buzz, and secondly, its title is brilliant and unique which is a great thing for Twitter searches. At present it is looking like a 6,000 tweet week and given a ratio of 750 it should be able to secure $8 million on Friday and $20 million for the weekend. This will prove to be a great yardstick for future Tyler Perry films also.

Check back tomorrow to see the Tuesday numbers and more comparisons. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets032610.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

Tags: the last song, clash of the titans, why did i get married too

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