Tweet counts and analysis for Wednesday, April 21st.

Twitter Box Office Update - April 22nd, 2010

on April 22, 2010

Total tweets for April 23rd Openers

Oceans had 774 tweets reference it on Wednesday, bringing its total for the week to 1,467. Since it opens today it is no doubt going to be a tricky call for the weekend due to lack of direct comparisons and it being the first Thursday opener I've tracked. As I said on Sunday, it should appeal to a pretty broad spectrum of people, but likely slanting slightly to women. The Thursday opening will also push its ratio down somewhat than if it were opening on Friday. All things considered we should be looking at a ratio of around ~500 and $3 million on its opening day.

The Back-up Plan came in with a very solid 1,286 tweets yesterday, bringing its week tally to 2,912 so far. By comparison When In Rome had 595 tweets its Wednesday before release, Leap Year had 344, Death At A Funeral had 1,273 and She's Out of My League had 645. Looking very rosy indeed here, but there is one thing I overlooked on Sunday which will set this apart from many others in the genre and that is its title. Due to its pretty unique name it's very easy to capture a very large percentage of its tweets ("the Back-up Plan" OR "the Backup Plan" OR "the Back up Plan"). With that in mind it has a great deal in common with Death At A Funeral which secured a ratio of close to 900. As such I'm going to push my ratio prediction up to 900 here as well and go ahead and predict a $4.5 million Friday and $13 million for the weekend.

Lastly, The Losers has really "insert overused pun here" this week, and Wednesday was no exception as it secured 692 tweets, giving it 1,497 on the week. By comparison Green Zone had 878 tweets its Wednesday before release, and Armored had 246. Yes the film does have a pretty restrictive search string because of its generic name ("The Losers" movie OR saldana OR chris OR evans OR morgan OR poster OR screening OR see OR watch) but still, these numbers are pretty poor. I don't think it will come in as low as Armored's 431 ratio but something in the range of 500 could be in order putting it ~$5 million territory for Friday and $13.5 million for the weekend.

Check back tomorrow to see the Thursday numbers and the final weekend predictions. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets041610.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

Tags: oceans, back-up plan, the losers

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