Total tweets for April 30th Openers
As expected, A Nightmare On Elm Street started with a bang and 2,318 tweets on Monday which equated to 7% of the total Twitter buzz for all films opening in the next 4 months. By comparison, The Crazies had 836 tweets its Monday before release, Shutter Island had 1,830, and Saw VI had 1,172. Of those 2,318 tweets, 444 were positive (19.15%) and 204 negative (8.80%). This is not the type of film to be overly swayed by negative buzz so it really should have little impact on its chances. Horrors tend to have very large Thursdays thanks to midnight showings and as such their Monday to Thursday multiplier is usually in the region of 7+ and with the added hype here I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up above 8. As such, these early numbers seem to indicate a total number of tweets in the region of 19,000 - 21,000 by end of day Thursday. With an expected ratio of ~1,250 that should be good for a ~$16 million Friday.
Furry Vengeance started with stark contrast from the above and a slim 233 tweets which mapped to 0.7% of the total Twitter buzz for all films opening in the next 4 months. By comparison, The Spy Next Door had 261 tweets its week before release, and The Tooth Fairy had 283. Of those 233 tweets it managed to secure, 35 were positive (15.02%) and 23 negative (9.87%). Really not a pretty picture to start the week with and the poor positive/negative numbers won't help things. At this point a week total in the region of 1,800 to 2,000 seems likely. I expect its ratio to come in around ~650 so a Friday in the vicinity of $2.75 million appears likely.
Check back tomorrow to see the Tuesday numbers and more comparisons. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)
The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.