Preview of this week's wide openers: Just Wright, Letters To Juliet, Robin Hood

Twitter Box Office Update - Upcoming Weekend May 14th, 2010

on May 09, 2010

The second week of Summer rolls around with 3 new wide release movies: Just Wright, Letters To Juliet, and Robin Hood.

upcoming051410.jpgJust Wright had a very impressive 2,817 tweets for last week. By comparison, Why Did I Get Married Too had 4,485 tweets on its lead-up frame, and Death At A Funeral had 1,605. Of its 2,817 tweets, 29.78% were positive, and only 5.15% negative. Its ratio is going to be pretty high since its search string was simply "Just Wright" thanks to its unique name and also thanks to the meagre theatre count of 1,800+. Also, while Death At A Funeral was also a unique name it was also not targetted almost 100% at young women and was in much more theaters, two things which have proved to be kryptonite for low ratios. This should drive its ratio to something in the range of 1,000 - 1,200. With a tweet total next week that is likely to be ~4,500 - 5,000 it should be in line for a low double digit opening. One last thing to note is I know this expansion from 2,817 tweets to my estimate of 4,500 - 5,000 for next week seems low but both of my comparison films were at a 3.0 multiplier or less. Actually, Why Did I Get Married Too had a multiplier of only 1.32.

Letters to Juliet also had a rock solid week, coming in with 2,417 tweets. By comparison, Dear John had 2,599, and The Last Song had 5,644. Its tweet-ratings were also very positive, coming in at 23% positive, and only 3.56% negative (the lowest yet that I've seen for a movie in its leadup week). Like Just Wright, the movie is blessed with a unique name which made grabbing a large proportion of its tweets possible with a simple string of "Letters to Juliet". Dear John had a ratio of 884, even with a pretty convoluted search string of ""dear john" movie OR tatum OR Hallstrom OR Hallström OR trailer OR screening OR poster OR see OR watch." However,  It did have the added draw of Channing Tatum who is the darling of many young women in the Twitter demographic. One thing to bear in mind is that the film had sneak peeks this weekend which really drove up its Thursday number as people were buzzing about it. In fact, its Thursday number was 1,173 which was almost half its week total. All things considered, I would expect a ratio here in ballpark of 900 - 1,000. It is looking to score around 4,500 - 5,000 tweets next week which should put it in low to mid double digits.

Lastly, Russell Crowe returns to the screen with Ridley Scott in Robin Hood. It had 2,574 tweets last week with a 26%/11.59% positive to negative rating. By comparison, 2012 had 4,544 tweets its week before release, Avatar had 8,036 and The Book Of Eli had 1,450. There definitely has been much more negative buzz circulating the film than the other two but that's pretty normal for such a high profile film, especially depicting a character which has been played countless times before.This should come in with a much lower ratio than the other two, likely in the 700 - 800 range. Its tweet total should hit 10,000 which should allow for a weekend in the upper $30's to lower $40's.  

Check back Monday night for analysis of the Monday tweet totals. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets050710.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

Tags: just wright, letters to juliet, robin hood

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