Two new wide releases will grace theaters this upcoming weekend: Hot
Tub Time Machine, and How To Train Your
Hot Tub Time Machine had 3,049 tweets on its lead-up frame last week. The MGM flick has been pushed hard on Twitter during the last few weeks and thanks to that its buzz-levels are definitely impressive online. This number is pretty massive, however, due to the Studio actively pushing it online, and the fact that its title has spawned a host of chatter in itself not related to interest in seeing it, its going to have an above average ratio. My early guess would be something in the region of ~1,500. At this point in time its looking like it is going to secure ~8,000 tweets for the week, put these two together and we might be looking at a mid to high teens opening frame.
Lastly, How To Train Your Dragon had 1,678 tweets last week. Impressive number considering the genre, by comparison Diary Of A Wimpy Kid had 864 its week before release, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs had 801 and A Christmas Carol had 1,188. It should manage a ratio in the realm of ~350 and should be able to secure ~5,000 tweets for the full week. This should allow it to hit $50 million for the weekend.
Check back Monday night for analysis of the Monday tweet totals. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)
The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.