Total tweets for April 2nd Openers
The Last Song kicked off with 2,221 tweets
on Monday. Huge yes but the film is playing directly to the Twitter
sweet-spot of young girls. Add in Miley Cyrus and its a buzz-magnet.
Comparisons will be difficult here because this is a Wednesday opener.
This will draw its ratio down from where it would have been for a Friday
opener since there are two less days of tweets. Looking at past
Wednesday openers they came it at a ratio of about ~60% of where I would
have expected them to be at for a full week opener. So let's figure out
that full week ratio potential and take 60% of it.
Its pretty certain that it will be a ways higher than Dear
John's 884 ratio. Remember Me springs to mind, and that saw a ratio of just over 3,000, however, the
Twilight nation's fanbase is quite a bit more rampant, and Miley Cyrus'
core draw of tweens are a bit on the young end of the Twitter spectrum. Whip
It also played to a very similar demographic and came in
with a 2,955 ratio which is also telling, though its very low theatre
count (1,720) was a factor with that too. I'd say let's go with a ratio
estimate of 1,350 for Wednesday (based on a ~2,250 ratio prediction had
it been a Friday opener), Given its ~2,200 tweets on Monday it should be
able to score 5,500 tweets by end of day today for the week and take in
$4 million on Wednesday at the Box Office, and mid-teens by the end of
Clash of the Titans was hugely impressive
on Monday as it secured 2,632 tweets. By comparison 2012 had 2,290 its Monday before release, and Avatar had 4,440. With such a healthy Monday and a holiday on Friday and 8PM
showings it is going to skyrocket later in the week, which should allow
it to hit ~19,000 tweets for the week. The Easter holiday will be
interesting to gauge, but perhaps even moreso will be the 8PM shows on
Thursday which will make Twitter heat up that much earlier. Avatar's
buzz and ratio was indeed higher but that had much more story around it
and questions about flopping and Cameron which this film doesn't have. I
would expect to see it come in at around the ~650 ratio mark which
would allow it to hit $30 million for Friday and ~$70 million for the
Lastly, Why Did I Get Married Too also had a
very respectable outing with 1,059 tweets on Monday. I had compared it
to Our Family Wedding on Sunday and while
valid, I didn't discount the fact that it is in much more theatres than Wedding which will help to normalize the effect of Tyler Perry's buzz, and
secondly, its title is brilliant and unique which is a great thing for
Twitter searches. At present it is looking like a 6,000 tweet week and
given a ratio of 750 it should be able to secure $8 million on Friday
and $20 million for the weekend. This will prove to be a great yardstick
for future Tyler Perry films also.
Check back tomorrow to see the Tuesday numbers and more comparisons.
Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history
please check here.)
The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday
Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday
would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to
very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences
are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to
younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences
are much more active users of Twitter.