Total tweets for February 26th Openers
Cop Out started off its week with 497 tweets on Monday. Respectable but not overly impressive as this should map to a week total in the region of 3,000 to 3,500. Notable comparisons include Surrogates which had 452 tweets its Monday before release, Men Who Stare At Goats had 495, and From Paris With Love had 509. The film's appeal to older audiences thanks to the Willis connection should be a balancing force for the younger Kevin Smith fanboys who are already making their mark. I'll stick with my Sunday early weekend prediction of a Friday ratio in the realm of 750-800 which should mean a Friday tally in the region of $4 to $5 million.
The Crazies had an excellent Monday with 836 tweets in its name. The film has been tracking well on Twitter for 4 weeks now and it has ramped up nicely to its release week. Notable comparisons include Saw VI which had 1,172 tweets in its Monday before release, The Fourth Kind which had 515, Daybreakers had 830, and Legion which had 612. Horrors tend to have better than average midnight openings on Thursday night which helps to drive up their Monday to Thursday multipliers moreso than any other genre. With that and these comparisons in mind we should be looking at a 5,500 to 6,000 tweet week here. In relooking at my Sunday assumptions, only one of my comparison films had a ratio of over 1,200 (Saw VI) and that was no doubt partly due to it being a sequel of an established franchise. With this in mind I'll lower my predicted estimate to 1,100 which would allow this to rake in $5 - $6 million on Friday.
Check back tomorrow to see the Tuesday numbers and more comparisons. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)
The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.