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By Alex Edghill

Monday Morning Update: This past week Facebook had a huge crackdown on spammers and fake accounts, something which saw many of the biggest Facebook properties take massive tumbles. Furious 7 fell almost 2 million likes, Ted 2 lost 800k while Minions tumbled 700k likes. Now all of those affected by the spam-removal still have oodles and oodles of legitimate likes so its not like they are hurting, but still it was good to see Facebook playing an active role in weeding out false followers, something with Twitter has a very hard time with.

In the midst of all this Paper Towns snatched the weekly lead for like increases as it rose by almost 250k new likes thanks largely because of its first trailer. The film is one of the most anticipated adaptations of the year with a lot of expectations after author John Green's last adaptation The Fault In Our Stars was one of the most discussed and indeed profitable films of 2014. Fault actually rose only 200k tweets in the week after its first trailer which is a good sign here, though it had a lot more likes prior to the first trailer also (it had 501k total likes a week after its first trailer). Paper Towns does have a long long way to go to match Fault in pre-release buzz though as its predecessor reached a gaudy 8 million total likes before it opened last June.

Pixels debuted its first trailer last week as well and reaped the benefits as it popped up on many people's radars for the first time, seeing almost a 500% jump. Adam Sandler's last film Blended didn't see a 100k like increase for any of its trailers and had only 274k likes before it was released. Strong signs for Pixels which might be more Grown Ups than Blended which is a very good sign for its potential. I mean really, if Tyrion Lannister with a laser cannon and a mullet doesn't spell box office gold I don't know what does!

Unfriended made it three weeks in a row that it had a 100k+ like increase, bringing its total to just under 800k. 1 million and more likes by its release is all but assured now as is its success (in my eyes at least). Home is surprisingly ahead of Get Hard amongst next week's openers (Get Hard has only 162k likes), and while I'm not sure they will finish in that order when the receipts are tallied almost 300k for a net new original animated film is pretty solid. Get Hard lags far behind the 700k Ride Along had prior to its release and when paired with its mediocre Twitter numbers and reviews looks like its going to not be an added highlight to Ferrell and Hart's bios.

Facebook Top 5 Movies by Like Increase for the last week Ending Sunday March 22nd

Rank Release Movie Likes Previous Change % Change
1 07/24/15 Paper Towns 362,926 114,169 248,757 217.88%
2 07/24/15 Pixels 185,780 31,349 154,431 492.62%
3 04/17/15 Unfriended 789,468 684,215 105,253 15.38%
4 03/27/15 Home (2015) 276,850 229,954 46,896 20.39%
5 04/10/15 The Longest Ride 175,583 140,296 35,287 25.15%

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Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

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by Phil Contrino

3D may not be generating tons of headlines these days, but that doesn't mean it's not a vital part of our industry. Eight of 2014's highest-grossing films were released in 3D. (Technically you could say nine out of 10, considering that The Hunger Games: Mockingjay-Part 1 received a 3D release in China but not North America.) Modern 3D is heading toward a period of maturity. Key lessons have been learned by distributors, exhibitors, and filmmakers about what works and what doesn't. The polarizing aspect of 3D hasn't gone away, but sometimes all it takes is one great film in 3D to change minds. We're betting that Gravity did just that last year. As long as filmmakers with exciting visions continue to value 3D, we'll stay confident about its potential.

Animated Films Will Continue to Connect in 3D

We firmly believe that Minions will become a member of the $1 billion global gross club when it opens in July this year, and a big reason for that will be strong grosses-both at home and overseas-from 3D shows. We are also bullish on Inside Out, Underdogs, Hotel Transylvania 2, The Peanuts Movie, and The Good Dinosaur.

3D Films Will Continue to Dominate the Box Office

The top 10 list in 2015 should be heavy on 3D releases. The heavy favorites to be No. 1 and No. 2-Avengers: Age of Ultron and Star Wars-are both in 3D. That may sound like a no-brainer, but the continued success of films released in 3D is an important reinforcement of the collective gamble our industry has taken, and it's always a fact that should be celebrated. The mainstream media is quick to pick on 3D, and it's crucial to make sure that the good stories are told.

Franchise Reboots Try 3D on for Size

It'll be very interesting to see how Terminator Genisys, Jurassic World, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens perform in 3D. We're betting all three will be very strong. When it comes to Jurassic World and Star Wars, it's clear that fans want to see those worlds with an added dimension, because 3D rereleases from both properties performed well at the box office.

More Oscar Recognition

There's a fact about 3D that goes underreported: back-to-back Best Director Oscars went to filmmakers who made critically and commercially successful 3D films: Ang Lee for Life of Pi and Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity. There's a chance that 2015's crop of films could bring more Oscar recognition. The two main contenders are Robert Zemeckis for The Walk and Craig Gillespie for The Finest Hours.

Expect Surprises

Every year there's a 3D film that comes along and surprises audiences a bit. This is a good thing for the industry as a whole, because it trains consumers to expect the unexpected when they go to the movies. We can't wait to see what film (or films) will surprise this year.

 

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By Alex Edghill

Sunday Morning Update: With the reign of Insurgent finally over a newcomer made its way into the top 5 for the first time this past week, shooting right to the top with its first trailer - Paper Towns. The latest film adaptation from author John Green's (of Fault In Our Stars fame) list of best-sellers. Paper Towns had an eye-popping 122,864 tweets on Thursday, making it the third largest trailer of the year on Twitter behind only Unfriended and Avengers: Age Of Ultron. The main comparison here of interest is Fault In Our Stars which managed an even bigger 145,233 tweets last January. Given the fact that Paper Towns has a much bigger scope on it because of Stars I'm going to go out on a limp here and say $50 million+ is highly unlikely (Fault In Our Stars opened to $48 million), however, its still going to be a massive success with $30 million+ very likely at this point. I'll be interested to see how its buzz tracks now that its first trailer is out and Fault In Our Stars continued to have huge volumes for months leading up to its release, enough to make it the most talked about film on Twitter for all of 2014.

The other big mover on the week was Insidious Chapter III which rose to just over 23,000 tweets last Wednesday after the release of its first trailer. By comparison, Insidious Chapter II had 36k+ tweets for its first trailer back in 2013, on its way to a $40 million opening. It would appear as though we need to lower our sights for the film given these trailer numbers, and with the horror genre being so busy this year this could be one that falls through the cracks when it comes to opening weekend. The first film opened to $10 million, second was $40 million and my guess is the third will land somewhere in-between.

Twitter Top 10 Movies for the week of March 13th to March 19th

Date Movie Tweets Rank Change
7/24/15 Paper Towns 185,415 1 (+3) 527.25%
5/01/15 Avengers: Age of Ultron 115,306 2 (-) 22.16%
4/03/15 Furious 7 98,534 3 (-) 31.57%
6/05/15 Insidious: Chapter 3 63,796 4 (+10) 408.21%
6/12/15 Jurassic World 32,719 5 (+5) 102.58%

Subscribe to Box Office for more social media insights/coverage.

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

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Insurgent enjoyed a $101 million global day-and-date debut across 76 overseas markets. It is the #1 film in 66 of those markets, including strong debuts in France ($5.8M), the UK ($4.5M), Brazil ($4.2M), Mexico ($3.7M), and Australia ($3.2M). The overseas haul netted $47 million, with overseas IMAX screenings contributing $1.7 million.

Cinderella grossed $41.1 million from 45 territories in its second weekend of release overseas. Italy has been performing particularly well for the princess film, taking $3.9 million in its sophomore frame to reach a $10.9 million cume. Cinderella's other top markets include a blockbuster run in China ($52.4M), along with strong results from Mexico ($10.9M) and Russia ($8.9M). The film has already grossed a total of $131.1 million overseas and $253.1 million worldwide with openings in top markets like France, Spain, the UK, Australia and Brazil scheduled for next weekend.

Home opened in 9 overseas markets ahead of its North American release. The film grossed $19.2 million from 4,659 in its roll-out, including a #1 finish in the UK from a $9.3 million bow at 1,183 screens. The film also took the top spot in Russia ($4.2M from 2,157 screens) and Spain ($2.4M from 573 screens), while settling for second place behind Insurgent in Australia ($2.3M from 247 screens) and Norway ($439k from 220 screens).

Taken 3 opened in second place in China with $18 million from 3,500 screens. The Chinese debut boosts the film's overseas cume up to $224.2 million. Taken 3 has grossed $312.8 million worldwide and still trails its predecessor's $378.2 million global cume.

Kingsman: The Secret Service earned $8.5 million from 3,787 screens in 47 markets. The film crossed the $40 million mark in South Korea this weekend as it lifts its overseas total to $181.3 million. Kingsman has grossed $295.8 million worldwide.

Focus found $7.9 million from from 4,578 screens in 64 territories. A strong hold-over in Brazil brought in $1.15 million from 578 screens ($3.3M cume). Top markets include the UK ($10M), Russia ($8.3m), Mexico ($7.2M), Australia ($5.4M), and Italy ($5.1M). Focus has earned a total of $71 million overseas and $120.4 million worldwide.

Big Hero 6 grossed $6.6 million in its latest frame overseas. The animated film has now grossed a total of $422.8 million outside of North America and $644.7 million worldwide. Top markets include Japan ($76.2M), China ($76M), the UK ($29.5M), Russia ($20.3M), and South Korea ($20.1M).

Run All Night opened in four new territories and made $5 million from 2,300 screens in 23 markets. The film premiered in South Korea to $1.3 million from 406 screens, while Australia opened to $573k from 174 screens. Run All Night has grossed $34.9 m million worldwide.

American Sniper added $5 million to its overseas tally this weekend, bringing its cume outside of North America up to $184.2 million. Top markets include Italy ($23.2M), France ($20.9M), and the UK ($20.6M). American Sniper has grossed $528.2 million worldwide.

Fifty Shades of Grey grossed $4.3 million from 60 territories as it nears the $400 million mark overseas. The weekend brings its cume outside of North America up to $394.5 million with a worldwide total of $558.3 million.

The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel welcomed $3.2 million from 2,186 screens in 33 markets. The film has now grossed a total of $34.4 million overseas and $58.5 million worldwide.

The Spongebob Movie: Sponge Out of Water grossed $3.2 million from 3,720 locations in 48 territories. The film has now grossed $280 million globally.

A $2.7 million debut in Japan lifts Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb to a $238.4 million overseas cume. The film has now grossed $351.2 million worldwide.

The Boy Next Door earned $2.4 million from 23 territories to reach an $8 million cume overseas. An expansion in 10 territories this weekend included premieres in Germany ($750l at 288 dates), Spain ($519k at 235 dates), and Mexico ($415k at 326 dates). The film has grossed $43.4 million worldwide.

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Sunday Update: Lionsgate's The Divergent Series: Insurgent led the box office this weekend with an estimated first place debut of $54.03 million. The second installment of the young adult series starring Shailene Woodley debuted in line with pre-release expectations. Insurgent opened just below the $54.61 million debut of last year's Divergent. However, it should be noted that Insurgent had the added advantage of higher priced 3D admissions, while Divergent did not. With that said, Insurgent was still off to a very solid start of its own this weekend. It should also be noted that the film's overseas start was significantly stronger than that of Divergent.

Insurgent opened with $21.31 million on Friday (which included an estimated $4.1 million from evening shows on Thursday), fell 7 percent on Saturday to gross $19.88 million and is estimated to decline 35 percent on Sunday to gross $12.84 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 2.54 to 1. In comparison, Divergent had a ratio of 2.40 to 1. Insurgent having a slightly more back-loaded opening weekend performance than Divergent had could be a good sign for Insurgent going forward, though it could also be a sign of the film's initial audience being less fan-driven this time around.

The audience breakdown for The Divergent Series: Insurgent skewed towards female moviegoers (60 percent) and towards moviegoers under the age of 25 (55 percent). The film received a healthy A- rating on CinemaScore.

Insurgent grossed $3.6 million from IMAX locations, which represented 6.7 percent of the film's overall grosses this weekend.

Cinderella placed in second this weekend with a strong $34.49 million. Disney's blockbuster fairy tale adaptation was down 49 percent from last weekend's debut. That represented a respectable second weekend hold, especially when considering the direct competition the film faced from Insurgent and that Cinderella lost most of its IMAX screens to Insurgent as well. Cinderella zoomed past the $100 million domestic mark this weekend and has grossed $122.04 million in ten days. That places the film a slim 5 percent behind the $128.18 million ten-day start of last year's Maleficent (which declined 51 percent in its second weekend to gross $34.33 million). Maleficent went on to stabilize very nicely later on in its run, and Cinderella will have a strong chance of doing the same, especially given the limited amount of new options for family audiences in April.

With Insurgent and Cinderella currently dominating the box office, the rest of the weekend's line-up made very little noise.

Warner's Run All Night is estimated to finish in a distant third place with $5.12 million. The Liam Neeson led action thriller was down 54 percent from last weekend, which represented a typical second weekend decline for a Neeson vehicle. Run All Night has grossed $19.72 million in ten days. That is a bit below expectations and places the film 5 percent behind the $20.83 million ten-day take of last year's A Walk Among the Tombstones (which fell 67 percent in its second weekend to gross $4.19 million).

Open Road's The Gunman debuted in fourth place with an estimated $5.01 million. The Sean Penn led action thriller opened a bit below its already modest pre-release expectations. Online activity for the film had been especially soft in the weeks leading up to its release and the film arriving so soon after Run All Night certainly didn't help matters either. The Gunman opened a significant 54.5 percent softer than the already soft $11.01 million start of Run All Night last weekend.

The Gunman started out with $1.77 million on Friday, increased 13 percent on Saturday to gross $1.99 million and is estimated to decline 38 percent on Sunday to take in $1.24 million. That gives the film an estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio of 2.83 to 1. The Gunman received a lackluster B- rating on CinemaScore and should fade away from theatres quickly.

Fox's Kingsman: The Secret Service rounded out the weekend's top five with an estimated $4.6 million. The Matthew Vaughn directed graphic novel adaptation starring Colin Firth was down just 26 percent from last weekend, as the film continues to hold up very nicely. The 38-day total for Kingsman stands at a stronger than expected $114.57 million.

Do You Believe? arrived in sixth place with an estimated $4.0 million. The faith-based drama from Pure Flix opened a bit below expectations and failed to approach the $9.22 million start of last year's God's Not Dead, though it wasn't widely expected to do so. Do You Believe? opened with $1.2 million on Friday, increased a slim 8 percent on Saturday to gross $1.3 million and is estimated to see a 15 percent jump on Sunday to gross $1.5 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 3.33 to 1. Do You Believe? will hope to hold up well going forward, thanks in part to the approaching Easter holiday.

On the platform front, It Follows continued its solid platform performance with an estimated $352,248 from 32 locations. That gave the critically acclaimed horror thriller from RADiUS-TWC a per-location average of $11,008 for the frame. It Follows has grossed $572,911 through ten days of platform release. Based on its performance thus far and on the strong critical buzz surrounding the film, It Follows is scheduled to expand into semi-wide release next weekend.

Saturday Update: Lionsgate reports that The Divergent Series: Insurgent posted an opening day of $21.3 million, including $4.1 million from Thursday night's early shows. The opening day figure is down nearly 7 percent from Divergent's first day last year despite gaining the advantage of 3D prices for the sequel this time. However, Insurgent did post a stronger increase from Thursday night than its predecessor. Word of mouth appears somewhat mixed as the sequel sits at 71 percent on Rotten Tomatoes' audience score -- 10 points lower than its predecessor on the day after release -- and a disappointing 33 percent from critics. In the film's favor, the studio reports CinemaScore registered as an "A-". BoxOffice is projecting a $51 million opening weekend.

Moving to second place yesterday was Disney's Cinderella, off 59 percent from opening day last week to $9.53 million as new competition for the female audience hit the marketplace. Word of mouth remains healthy, though, and BoxOffice is projecting a quick recovery as the film aims for a $34.5 million sophomore frame.

The Gunman posted a soft opening in third place yesterday with $1.77 million. The Sean Penn actioner opened 54 percent below Run All Night's first day last week and is currently sitting at weak 39 percent and 13 percent audience and critic scores, respectively. BoxOffice projects a $5.0 million opening weekend.

Run All Night itself claimed fourth with $1.405 million on Friday, down 64 percent from its first day. The film's total stands at an even $16 million through eight days of release. BoxOffice projects a $4.6 million second frame.

Filling out the top five on Friday, Kingsman: The Secret Service slipped only 24 percent from last Friday to add another $1.275 million. The hit graphic novel pic has totaled an impressive $111.25 million domestically thus far. Look for a weekend around $4.6 million.

Meanwhile, low-budget Do You Believe? debuted to $1.25 million yesterday. Unfortunately, the latest faith-based picture from Pure Flix Entertainment wasn't quite as strong as God's Not Dead's $2.8 million first day (off by 55 percent). Critics haven't taken to the film (13 percent), but audience word of mouth is a bit more reasonable (71 percent) for the genre. BoxOffice projects a solid $4.7 million opening weekend.

Check BoxOffice on Sunday for official weekend estimates from the studios.

Friday Update #2: Sources tell BoxOffice that Insurgent is headed for a debut frame somewhere between $50 million-$52 million. It's still early yet and word of mouth could push the film closer to $55 million. The first Divergent film opened to $54.6 million last March.

The Gunman is eyeing a debut of around $7 million. Sean Penn's bid at a Liam Neeson-style career reinvention is falling flat.

Do You Believe?, a faith-based drama, is set for $4 million or so.

Check back tomorrow for official studio numbers and update predictions.

Friday Update #1: Sources are reporting that The Divergent Series: Insurgent pulled an estimated $4.1 million from Thursday evening shows. While still generally very healthy, that figure is down over 16 percent from Divergent's $4.9 million Thursday haul entering the same weekend last year -- despite Insurgent boasting the adding benefit of 3D and IMAX prices.

Also opening this weekend are The Gunman and Do You Believe?, however, Thursday grosses were not available for those two films at the time of publishing.

Meanwhile, Cinderella looks to finish in second place this weekend with what is expected to be a solid hold from its bow last week.

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