First off I apologize for the missing update yesterday. Computer and
Twitter connection woes caused their share of issues. Maybe its all that
Death At A Funeral finished the week with 1,621 tweets on Thursday. This gave it 4,966 tweets for the week, a ways above even my revised number of 4,750 from Tuesday's update. By comparison, Why Did I Get Married Too ended up with 5,925 tweets for its week before release which gave it a 480 ratio (thanks Chrestomanci), Our Family Wedding had 2,294 and a 918 ratio, while Cop Out had 2,815 and a 469 ratio. Really a massive number which bodes well for the film's chances. I'm going to bump its ratio up slightly to 600 to account for its higher capture of related tweets ("Death At A Funeral" as a search string captures almost all relevant tweets with little non-related tweets. Unique names are awesome). As such it should be looking at around ~$8 million for Friday and $23.7 million for the weekend.
Kick Ass wrapped up its week with a whopping 4,002 tweets on Thursday. This gave it 10,791 for the full week, in the ballpark of my estimated 10,000 to 11,000 from earlier this week. By comparison, Ninja Assassin had 9,718 tweets its week before release which afforded it a 1,714 ratio, and Hot Tub Time Machine had 8,122 and a 1,785 ratio. Couple points of note for both of these comparisons is that Ninja opened on a Wednesday which gave its week tweet tally a shot of NOS, and Hot Tub was just as popular as a punchline as it was for folks actually interested in seeing the films. At any rate I'm going to up my ratio estimate slightly here to 1,150 and predict a Friday gross of $9.5 million and $26.5 million for the full weekend.
Check back Saturday to see Friday's numbers and the actual Twitter ratios for the weekend and follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)
The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.