romanpolanski.pngSource: AP

Things are not looking good for Roman Polanski.

The attempt by Polanski's lawyers to have the secret testimony of the original prosecutor of his case unsealed was rejected by a judge on Monday. Judge Peter Espinoza said there are only two ways it could be unsealed: if Polanski returns to the states or if Roger Gunson, the original prosecutor, is unable to testify.

Polanski is certainly beginning to feel the intense urgency of his situation, because he recently released a direct statement.

The Ghost Writer, a film that could very well be Polanski's last work, has raked in nearly $15 million domestically since opening on February 19.

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Total tweets for May 14th Openers

upcoming051410.jpgJust Wright had a solid return Monday of 935 tweets, picking up where it left off last week. This accounted for 1.8% market share of relevant movie buzz, with Iron Man 2 still taking the lion's share there as expected (57% on Monday). For the purposes of my analysis I include holdovers for only 2 weeks after release, and with a monstrous $~130 million opening frame Iron Man 2 is sure to be at or near the top for its two weeks post release before it is wiped off the boards. In terms of buzz quality, Just Wright was solid but unspectacular, coming in at 21.6% positive (202 tweets) and 5.24% negative (49 tweets). By comparison, Why Did I Get Married Too had 1,059 tweets its Monday before release, Our Family Wedding had 293 and Death At A Funeral had 855. This was pretty much in line with my Sunday expectations column as it appears set for a ~5,000 tweet week. I do think that it might come in at the high end of my 1,000 - 1,200 prediction due to a number of reasons including its very low theatre count and unique name. Low double digits looks likely.

Letters to Juliet started the week with 784 tweets, or 1.5% market share. At face value this appears to be lagging behind Just Wright but considering that the audience here will include much more of an older demographic thanks to Vanessa Redgrave, its target markets are not fully represented on Twitter, something which much be taken into account. That and the fact that its tweet quality is by far the best of all openers this week, coming in at 40.3% positive (316 tweets) and 7.14% negative (56 tweets). Considering that it had sneak peeks on Sunday this is a solid sign that they were receptive. However, since people who want to watch a film already generally go to sneaks it has to be taken with a grain of salt. By comparison, Dear John had 2,103 tweets its Monday before release. All appears to be set for ~4,500 tweets for the week and with an estimated ratio of around 900 expect a solid mid-teens opening here.

Lastly, Robin Hood led all three openers as expected with 1,376 tweets, 2.7% market share. In terms of tweet quality it came in at 29.43% positive (405 tweets) and 7.92% negative (109 tweets). A pretty solid showing as it really pulled ahead of the other two openers as expected after it spent most of last week neck and neck with them. It does have the highest negative percentage this week but at ~8% it is hardly a figure worth worrying about and its positive percentage of near 30% is pretty comforting especially given a lot of the lukewarm reviews that have been floating around. My Sunday estimate was for 10,000 tweets for the week but given Monday's tally 8,500 might be more realistic. Its ratio should definitely be the lowest of all films this week for a few reasons, namely it is opening in the largest amount of theatres, has the broadest appeal and its search string was much more restrictive to zero out irrelevant tweets. In looking at other relevant films: 2012 had 2,290 tweets its Monday before release, Avatar had 4,040 and The Book Of Eli had 1,101. I expect it to perform similar to (ratio-wise anyway) The Book Of Eli and come in around ~600 - 700. Upper $30s seems likely but this might drop slightly if it doesn't pick up its pace and hit the 8,500 tweet mark for the week. 

Check back tomorrow to see the Tuesday numbers and more comparisons. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets050710.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

Market share is calculated by looking at all tweets for wide releases opening in the next 4 months as well as all wide release films in release for less than two weeks. Sometimes limited release films of note are included in the numbers if they might expand wide at a later date or are a release of note.

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colinfarrell.pngSource: Deadline Hollywood Daily

After starring in such high-profile commercial duds as Alexander and Miami Vice, Colin Farrell was forced into the world of indie flicks. Now he will return to the mainstream with two new studio projects: the thriller remake Fright Night for DreamWorks and director Craig Gillespie and Horrible Bosses at New Line from director Seth Gordon

Farrell's performance in In Bruges won him a Golden Globe two years ago, and he recently appeared opposite Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart. Farrell also stepped in for Heath Ledger in The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus. Those three projects helped him rebound in a big way.

The Irish thesp's latest performance in Neil Jordan's Ondine is also winning raves. That film opens in limited release domestically on June 4.

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Monday Afternoon Update (1:40 p.m. PT): Paramount is reporting a $128.1 million domestic haul for Iron Man 2 during its opening frame, and a $194.2 million 10-day international cume.

Sunday Morning Update (8:30 a.m. PT): Paramount is estimating $133.6 million for Iron Man 2 this weekend, which gives it the fifth highest unadjusted opening of all time.

Saturday Morning Update (8:10 a.m. PT): Paramount is reporting that Iron Man 2 made an estimated $52.4 million on Friday. The films international total now stands at an estimated $200 million. The sequel also boasts an A from CinemaScore.

Saturday Morning Update (7:30 a.m. PT): Deadline Hollywood is projecting a $130 million opening weekend for Iron Man 2. Check back soon for's official estimate.

Friday Morning Update: While Iron Man 2 didn't even come close to matching the $26.23 record-setting midnight haul of The Twilight Saga: New Moon or the $18.4 million haul of The Dark Knight, its $7.5 million take is still very impressive. IM2 doesn't have the same kind of rabid fan base as those films, but its weekend haul has a good shot at landing somewhere in the middle of New Moon's $142 million and Dark Knight's $158 million.


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