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By Daniel Garris

Sunday Update: Fox's Deadpool exploded this weekend with an estimated three-day debut of $135.0 million. The Ryan Reynolds led antihero film not only destroyed expectations, but destroyed the previous all-time R-rated and February opening weekend records as well. Deadpool opened 47 percent ahead of the $91.77 million 2003 debut of previous R-rated record holder The Matrix Reloaded and 58.5 percent ahead of the $85.17 million start of previous February (and Presidents Day weekend) record holder Fifty Shades of Grey. Deadpool also delivered the largest debut ever for a film in the X-Men universe, as it opened 31 percent ahead of the $102.75 million three-day start of 2006's X-Men: The Last Stand. Deadpool opened 49 percent ahead of the $90.82 million three-day debut of last year's X-Men: Days of Future Past, which is especially impressive given that Deadpool didn't have the added advantage of higher priced 3D admissions and opened in 438 fewer locations.

Without adjusting for ticket price inflation, Deadpool registered the 17th largest opening weekend of all-time. The film also claimed the fifth largest debut ever for a Marvel adaptation (behind only 2012's Marvel's The Avengers, last year's Avengers: Age of Ultron, 2013's Iron Man 3 and 2007's Spider-Man 3) and the seventh largest debut ever for a comic book adaption of any kind (behind only 2012's The Dark Knight Rises and 2008's The Dark Knight in addition to the four mentioned Marvel films).

Thanks to a marketing campaign that went over amazingly well with moviegoers, Deadpool had generated strong online activity for months. But the film ultimately performed far stronger than even its online strength had suggested. In addition to the film's marketing striking the perfect chord with comic book fans and general audiences alike, Deadpool was also helped by the popularity of the character among comic book fans, good critical reviews and by Valentine's Day falling on Sunday.

Deadpool opened with $47.46 million on Friday (which included an estimated $12.7 million from Thursday night shows), dipped just 10 percent on Saturday to take in $42.55 million and is estimated to increase 6 percent on Valentine's Day Sunday to gross $45.00 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 2.85 to 1, which is very encouraging for a high-profile comic book adaptation (even with Valentine's Day in mind). Deadpool received a strong A rating on CinemaScore and currently boasts a terrific 96 percent audience score on Flixster. With word of mouth this strong, it's very possible that Deadpool will have stronger than expected holding power as well, on top of its already explosive debut. Fox's current four-day estimate for Deadpool is $150.0 million.

Fellow Fox release Kung Fu Panda 3 placed in a distant second with an estimated three-day take of $19.65 million. The 3D computer animated sequel from Fox and DreamWorks Animation was down just 14 percent from last weekend. Kung Fu Panda 3 was helped out this weekend by no new family films entering the marketplace, by the holiday frame and by Super Bowl 50 having deflated last weekend's grosses in general. Kung Fu Panda 3 has grossed $92.46 million in 17 days. That places the film 21 percent behind the $116.94 million 17-day gross of last year's Hotel Transylvania 2 (which fell 38.5 percent in its third weekend to claim $20.42 million). Kung Fu Panda 3 is likely to hold up well throughout the rest of February, thanks in part to no new family films entering the marketplace until the arrival of Disney's Zootopia on March 4. Fox's current four-day estimate for Kung Fu Panda 3 is $26.0 million.

Warner's How to Be Single debuted in third place with an estimated three-day start of $18.75 million. The romantic comedy from New Line and MGM featuring Dakota Johnson opened towards the higher end of pre-release expectations. How to Be Single benefited from Valentine's Day falling on Sunday and from ultimately representing a better alternative choice to Deadpool than Zoolander 2 did. How to Be Single performed 24 percent stronger than the $15.07 million three-day start of 2009's Confessions of a Shopaholic.

How to Be Single opened with $5.25 million on Friday (which included an estimated $700,000 from Thursday night shows), increased 14 percent on Saturday to gross $6.00 million and is estimated to increase 25 percent on Sunday to take in $7.50 million. The film received a respectable B rating on CinemaScore and currently has a 66 percent audience score on Flixster. BoxOffice currently estimates that How to Be Single will take in $21.0 million over the four-day frame.

Meanwhile, Paramount's Zoolander 2 had to settle for a fourth place estimated three-day launch of $15.65 million. The PG-13 rated comedy sequel starring Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson opened well below pre-release expectations. While Zoolander 2 had generated strong online activity levels before its release, that online activity and the film's cult following failed to transfer over to the box office this weekend. Obviously, the break-out performance of Deadpool also significantly limited the potential of Zoolander 2 this weekend. Without taking into account 15 years of ticket price inflation, the three-day start for Zoolander 2 was very similar to the $15.53 million debut of 2001's Zoolander.

Zoolander 2 opened with $4.20 million on Friday (which included an estimated $750,000 from Thursday night shows), increased 11 percent on Saturday to gross $4.67 million and is estimated to increase 45 percent on Sunday to gross $6.78 million. The film received a soft C+ rating on CinemaScore and currently has an audience score of just 37 percent on Flixster. Neither is a good sign for Zoolander 2 going forward. Paramount's current four-day estimate for Zoolander 2 is $18.0 million.

Beyond the top four, other estimated three-day grosses this weekend included $6.90 million for Fox's The Revenant, $6.59 million for Universal's Hail, Caesar!, $6.19 million for Disney's Star Wars: The Force Awakens and $5.25 million for Lionsgate's The Choice. The Revenant (down 1 percent), The Force Awakens (down 11 percent) and The Choice (down 13 percent) all held up extremely well this weekend, while Hail, Caesar! was down a troubling 42 percent. Respective current total grosses stand at $914.84 million for The Force Awakens, at $159.16 million for The Revenant, at $21.35 million for Hail, Caesar! and at $13.26 million for The Choice.

4-Day Weekend Estimates

1. Deadpool -- $150.00M*
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 -- $26.00M*
3. How to Be Single -- $21.00M#
4. Zoolander 2 -- $18.00M*
5. The Revenant -- $8.10M*
6. The Force Awakens -- $7.55M*
7. Hail, Caesar! -- $7.51M*
8. The Choice -- $6.00M*
9. Ride Along 2 -- $4.76M*
10. The Finest Hours -- $3.28M*
11. The Boy -- $3.26M*
12. The 5th Wave -- $3.15M#
13. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies -- $2.85M#
14. Dirty Grandpa -- $2.50M*
15. 13 Hours -- $1.80M*
16. The Big Short -- $1.57M*

* Indicates an official studio estimate.
# Indicates a BoxOffice.com estimate.

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By Shawn Robbins

Saturday Update: Fox reports this morning that Deadpool is utterly crushing records for an R-rated film -- and then some. The Ryan Reynolds vehicle exploded with an estimated $47.5 million opening day on Friday, including $12.7 million from Thursday night shows. That handily surpasses The Matrix Reloaded's previous record opening day for an R-rated film ($37.5 million, or $42.5 million counting its Wednesday early shows in May 2003), as well as previous graphic novel adaptation champ 300 ($28.1 million opening day in March 2007).

Among other records Deadpool has or will be chasing down, it topped last year's Fifty Shades of Grey ($30.3 million) for the best all-time February opening day and looks to steal that film's $85.2 million record four-day President's Day weekend when all is said and done. It should also have little trouble taking down Matrix Reloaded's R-rated weekend record of $91.8 million (which American Sniper's $89.3 million, in addition to Grey, came close to last year).

Not unlike Disney/Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy, Fox's phenomenal (and consistently viral) Deadpool ad campaign over the last few months has turned a largely unknown character (outside of fans) into an instant mega success. Despite no serious built-in franchise event-level appeal, plus its R rating, the film's first day stands as the 24th highest in history. It even surpassed Guardians itself ($37.9 million opening day), and every Marvel movie -- from any studio -- not named Avengers, Spider-Man, or Iron Man. Those franchises (five films between them) plus the final two Dark Knight films stand as the only "comic book" adaptations to claim higher opening days than Deadpool. In other words, and in a fantastic moment of irony, it topped the openings days of every X-Men film (The Last Stand's $45.1 million being the highest).

Adding to all of this is the fact that word of mouth is stellar. Some natural drop-off will occur due to the immense upfront fan demand, but with very impressive 96 percent Flixster and 84 percent Rotten Tomatoes scores as of this morning, the pic could play very well beyond this Valentine's/President's Day weekend.

The calendar makes projections trickier than usual at this point, particularly because Valentine's Day date crowds will sway the market on Sunday. This is the kind of film that could take a hit from that, but it's also showing signs of crossing over into being a date night movie itself. We'll have further analysis on Deadpool's debut and numerous records in the days ahead as it gets a chance to play out. For now, BoxOffice projects a colossal and record-smashing $114 million three-day opening weekend and $127 million for the four-day holiday frame.

MGM/New Line's How to Be Single bowed with $5.25 million yesterday, surprisingly coming in second place ahead of Zoolander 2. That's a very healthy start for the fairly low-profile rom-com as it aims to benefit from date night crowds this weekend. BoxOffice projects a $20.3 million three-day opening and $22.8 million for the extended frame into Monday.

Speaking of Zoolander 2, the comedy follow-up started with an estimated $4.2 million. The original film's fans had been demanding a sequel for the past decade, but it clearly is being overshadowed by Deadpool buzz. Reviews (22 percent) and word of mouth (38 percent) appear to be heading in the wrong direction, unfortunately, which leads to our current three-day and four-day projections of $13.6 million and $15.5 million, respectively.

Kung Fu Panda 3 tacked on another $3.88 million on Friday for a new tally of $78.1 million. Look for an $18.2 million three-day weekend and $24 million over the four-day.

Meanwhile, The Revenant and Star Wars: The Force Awakens continued to hold their own despite a wave of new competition. The former posted $1.3 million yesterday for a new total of $153.6 million stateside, while the all-time domestic record champ added $1.2 million for a new haul of $909.85 million. Our weekend projections for those and the remainder of the top ten can be found below (ranked by four-day estimates). We'll update with weekend estimates from the studios on Sunday morning.

Rank / Title / 3-Day Estimate / 4-Day Estimate

1. Deadpool ($114 million 3-day / $127 million 4-day)
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 ($18.2 million / $24.0 million)
3. How to Be Single ($20.3 million / $22.8 million)
4. Zoolander 2 ($13.6 million / $15.5 million)
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($6.2 million / $7.6 million)
6. The Revenant ($6.5 million / $7.5 million)
7. Hail, Caesar! ($6.45 million / $7.3 million)
8. The Choice ($5.1 million / $6.0 million)
9. Ride Along 2 ($3.9 million / $4.5 million)
10. The Boy ($3.2 million / $3.7 million)
11. The Finest Hours ($2.8 million / $3.5 million)
12. The 5th Wave ($2.5 million / $3.0 million)
13. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies ($2.2 million / $2.6 million)
14. Dirty Grandpa ($2.0 million / $2.3 million)
15. 13 Hours ($1.6 million / $1.9 million)

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Friday Update: Multiple sources report that Deadpool gunned down an excellent $12.7 million from Thursday night's opening shows, taking down the all-time R-rated record of $10.4 million from The Hangover Part II and the overall February record of $8.6 million by last year's Fifty Shades of Grey.

Following an extensively viral ad campaign that dominated social media since last summer, last night's debut impressively bested numerous superhero adaptations as well -- namely Guardians of the Galaxy ($11.2 million), fellow in-universe title X-Men: Days of Future Past ($8.1 million), and Ant-Man ($6.4 million). It's no wonder Fox greenlit a sequel earlier this week given the very strong word of mouth coming out of last night's first shows.

Among last night's earnings were $2.3 million from IMAX alone, the best ever posted by an IMAX title in February, and sixth highest of all-time (more than Furious 7).

Weekend projections are more challenging than usual given the landing of Valentine's Day on Sunday and President's Day on Monday, but given the strong reception so far we're inclined to believe Thursday front-loading won't be abnormally severe. The top five R-rated weekends of all-time (Friday through Sunday) belong to films that earned over $83.8 million -- with the top two being The Matrix Reloaded's $91.8 million and American Sniper's $89.3 million. Those are also close to the proximity of Guardians' $94.3 million opening weekend and Days of Future Past's $90.8 million three-day start. Even though Deadpool's Sunday may be deflated by date night crowds, it may have enough lead-in already to get close to those figures.

For the four-day, last year's Fifty Shades of Grey set a new President's Day frame record with $93.0 million. Deadpool has a great shot at topping that, and could be looking upward of $100 million+ by the end of the extended weekend if everything goes its way. Either way, coupled with a fantastic overseas start as well, this is a massive success already for Fox, Ryan Reynolds, and co.

Also debuting last night was Zoolander 2, which posted a more modest $750,000 from early shows. By comparison, Anchorman: The Legend Continues did $2.3 million from its early show opening, although that film opened one week before Christmas when many were out of school and work for the holidays.

Lastly, How to Be Single posted $700,000 last night, a solid total that indicates some potential to upset Zoolander 2 for second place among this weekend's openers. That figure topped About Last Night's $530,000 Thursday night start one day before Valentine's in 2014.

We'll have further analysis and our weekend estimates on Saturday morning once the studios release official Friday estimates.

 

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By Daniel Garris

Drafthouse Films' Where to Invade Next arrived in theatres this weekend with an estimated $933,240 from 308 locations over the three-day frame. That gave the Michael Moore directed documentary a modest per-location average of $3,030. While Where to Invade Next had one of the weekend's more noteworthy platform performances (during a slow overall frame for films in limited release), the film didn't reach the box office heights of previous Michael Moore films, such as the $4.50 million grossed by 2007's Sicko in 441 locations and the $4.45 million grossed by 2009's Capitalism: A Love Story in 962 locations. Where to Invade Next has received solid critical reviews, as it currently has a 75 percent Tomatometer on Rotten Tomatoes. With the addition of earlier preview grosses, Where to Invade Next has grossed $1.03 million to date.

Sony Pictures Classics' The Lady in the Van continued its solid platform run with an estimated three-day take of $548,604 from 130 locations, for a per-location average of $4,220. The Nicholas Hytner directed film starring Maggie Smith was up a healthy 55 percent over last weekend (when it was playing in 48 fewer locations). The Lady in the Van has grossed a promising $1.97 million in 31 days (and an additional one-week Oscar qualifying run back in early December).

Best Picture nominees The Big Short and Brooklyn both continued to have a box office presence with respective estimated three-day grosses of $1.37 million and $1.12 million. Paramount's The Big Short was down 20 percent from last weekend, while Fox Searchlight's Brooklyn declined by just 5 percent. Respective total grosses stand at $65.70 million for The Big Short in 66 days and at $34.08 million for Brooklyn in 101 days.

Estimated three-day grosses for other Best Picture nominees included $750,665 for Open Road's Spotlight from 455 locations and $412,000 for A24's Room from 316 locations. Spotlight was down 10 percent from last weekend (when it was playing in 213 more locations) and has grossed $37.26 million in 101 days. Room fell a sizable 44 percent from last weekend (when it was in an additional 315 locations) and has grossed $11.96 million in 122 days.

45 Years took in an estimated $486,000 over the three-day weekend from 237 locations, for a per-location average of $2,051.  Upon expanding into an additional 83 locations the critically acclaimed drama from IFC Films' Sundance Selects division, starring Charlotte Rampling and Tom Courtenay was only up 2 percent from last weekend. The 54-day platform total for 45 Years stands at $2.71 million.

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Deadpool killed it across the globe this weekend grossing an estimated $260.05 million worldwide, including $125 million from 61 overseas markets. 20th Century Fox’s superhero film was the #1 movie everywhere except for Poland. Top grossing markets are the UK/Ireland ($20.1M), Russia ($12.4M) as the biggest industry opening weekend of all time beating The Force Awakens, Australia ($10.1M), France ($8.7M), Taiwan ($8.2M), Mexico ($7.8M), Germany ($7.0M), Brazil ($5.8M), Hong Kong ($3.8M), and Malaysia ($2.9M).

Deadpool had the biggest Fox opening weekend ever in 13 markets including Australia, Taiwan, Brazil, Hong Kong and Malaysia. The film had the biggest R-rated (or market equivalent) opening in 11 markets including Philippines, Singapore, Central America, Denmark, New Zealand and Australia.

IMAX screens contributed $8 million setting the biggest February and R-rated openings in numerous markets.

Italy, Spain, South Korea, and the Middle East open next weekend.

Alvin & The Chipmunks: The Road Chip drove off with $15.3 million this weekend as the international cume crossed $100M to land at $108.1 million. The UK/Ireland ($6.3M) opened in 2nd place. The fourth film in the series has grossed $192.2 million.

Kung Fu Panda 3 rolled to $14.6 million in 7 overseas markets, lifting the overseas cume to $162.2 million and the worldwide tally to $256.1 million. China ($124.4M) picked up some steam this weekend thanks to Chinese New Year, but its choice of release date in the world’s second largest film market continues to baffle.

The Revenant raised another $14.0 million this weekend. The award season drama has grossed $202.0 million overseas and  

How To Be Single launched to $8.1 million overseas in its opening weekend. Combined with North America’s debut, the Warner Bros’ comedy has earned $26.85 million. Taiwan opened in second place with $1.3 million over the Chinese New Year, Italy followed with $0.95 million, then Russia ($0.93M), Holland ($0.66M), and Spain ($0.56M). How To Be Single expands to the UK, Australia, and Mexico next weekend.

Disney’s Zootopia rolled out in several international markets this weekend to take advantage of school holidays and grossed $4.5 million from 3 overseas territories. Spain earned $2.8 million and Denmark/Belgium grossed a combined $1.7 million. Next weekend will see openings in France, Italy, South Korea, and Mexico before its domestic debut on March 4 along with Germany, Russia, and China.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens powered to $4.3 million overseas in its ninth weekend of release, pushing the international total to $1.118 billion and the global total to $2.026639 billion. The record-breaking film has now become the third movie of all-time to cross 100 million Euros in Germany ($109.2M). 

The Martian fell just 19% in Japan ($3.3M) on its second weekend and has grossed $13.6 million total there. The Ridley Scott sci-fi survival saga has earned $386.0 million overseas and $614.2 million worldwide. 

The Danish Girl grossed an estimated $2.6 million from 42 overseas this weekend for an international total of $33.3 million and a worldwide total of $44.0 million. Openings include Brazil ($0.27M), Taiwan ($0.5M), Turkey ($0.052M) and Panama ($0.064M).

Films earning less than $2 million overseas this weekend and local language films

Dad’s Army (UK/Ireland)

Overseas Weekend: $1.8M

Overseas Total: $7.0M

 

Ride Along 2

Overseas Weekend: $1.5M

Overseas Total: $25.6M

Global Total: $108.3M

 

Sisters

Overseas Weekend: $1.3M

Overseas Total: $17.0M

Global Total: $103.8M

 

The Finest Hours

Overseas Weekend: $0.8M

Overseas Total: $10.2M

Global Total: $33.578M

 

Steve Jobs

Overseas Weekend: $0.637M

Overseas Total: $16.1M

Global Total: $33.8M

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By Alex Edghill

Friday Morning Update: With Deadpool now having opened (to a record breaking midnight tally no less) that leaves the upcoming film market wide open for the taking in terms of Twitter honors. Star Wars: The Force Awakens and then Deadpool were so very dominant over the last 6 months+, in fact one of those two films led the weekly tweets totals 22 out of the last 26 weeks. Needless to say that after that unprecedented run atop the leaderboards its somewhat of a relief to be able to write about something else. Emerging from the shadows this week were the plethora of sequels on the slate over the next few months led by X-Men: Apocalypse which has quietly been generating a lot of interest over the last few weeks. The best comparison here is X-Men: Days Of Future Past which opened on the same weekend in May 2 years ago. For the two weeks leading up to Valentines Day Future Past had accumulated 12,698 tweets, fast forward to this year and Apocalypse has generated 225,942 tweets. That's twenty times the amount of buzz. It is true that its Super Bowl spot gave it a massive shot in the arm (it got 50,000 tweets on Super Bowl Sunday alone), but even for the week prior it was routinely pulling in over 10,000 tweets a day. Clearly the marketing campaign is in full swing here and doing great things for its awareness online. Outside of trailer bumps from other comic sequels this Summer it has consistently been the most talked about of the lot in 2016 so far which is likely telling for box office fortunes as well.

Finding Dory has been largely quiet this year, taking a back seat to The Secret Life Of Pets for the most part in the Summer animated race but this past week it ramped up its game thanks to the release of new posters to the film which generated a surprising amount of buzz. Widely regarded as a contender for one of the top films of the Summer this recent uptick is promising to see. Considering that the largest tweet day for Pets was 4,388 and Dory managed to nab 18,985 tweets. Dory is undoubtedly the cream of the crop for animated films on the year based on these types of returns.

Jason Bourne went from not having an official title and being largely anonymous a week ago to being in the weekly top 10 with the second largest percentage gain. Its tough to draw comparisons from this far out so I'll reserve them for now but I will say that this is a film that doesn't have to be on top of Twitter to dominate the box office since it will do very well with older audiences.

Lastly, Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates did surprisingly well on the heels of its first trailer as it accounted for 18,497 tweets on Tuesday, putting it on the map for many Twitter users and giving it the largest percentage jump in recent memory. Zach Efron's last film Dirty Grandpa saw only 3,623 tweets on the debut of its first trailer last October so this is an excellent start for the film.

Twitter Top 10 Movies for the week of February 5th to February 11th

Date Movie Tweets Rank Change
5/27/16 X-Men: Apocalypse 150,126 1 (+2) 98.01%
5/06/16 Captain America: Civil War 94,817 2 (+6) 175.73%
3/25/16 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 92,249 3 (+4) 166.38%
8/05/16 Suicide Squad 51,459 4 (-) -8.65%
6/17/16 Finding Dory 39,454 5 (+19) 590.12%
7/15/16 Ghostbusters (2016) 35,070 6 (-1) -7.44%
7/29/16 Jason Bourne 32,331 7 (+97) 2131.26%
7/08/16 Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates 31,238 8 (+85) 51963.33%
3/04/16 Zootopia 29,769 9 (-) 12.50%
4/15/16 The Jungle Book (2016) 24,702 10 (+21) 725.88%

Subscribe to BoxOffice for more social media insights/coverage.

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

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Fox International has released early international numbers from several overseas markets totaling $12 million. These include:

UK/Ireland ($3.4M)

 

  • Biggest Fox opening day ever for 15-rated movie
  • 2nd highest grossing IMAX Wednesday opening ever behind Spectre
Australia ($2.1M)
  • 75% market share on Thursday
  • Biggest Febuary release of all-time
  • 7% bigger than Jurassic World's opening day
France ($1.8M), Taiwan ($1.4M), Hong Kong ($650K), Philippines ($357K), Belgium ($270K), and Singapore ($205K).
Complete international numbers for Deadpool's opening weekend will be released Sunday morning.

 

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