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By Shawn Robbins

Saturday Update: Fox reports this morning that Deadpool is utterly crushing records for an R-rated film -- and then some. The Ryan Reynolds vehicle exploded with an estimated $47.5 million opening day on Friday, including $12.7 million from Thursday night shows. That handily surpasses The Matrix Reloaded's previous record opening day for an R-rated film ($37.5 million, or $42.5 million counting its Wednesday early shows in May 2003), as well as previous graphic novel adaptation champ 300 ($28.1 million opening day in March 2007).

Among other records Deadpool has or will be chasing down, it topped last year's Fifty Shades of Grey ($30.3 million) for the best all-time February opening day and looks to steal that film's $85.2 million record four-day President's Day weekend when all is said and done. It should also have little trouble taking down Matrix Reloaded's R-rated weekend record of $91.8 million (which American Sniper's $89.3 million, in addition to Grey, came close to last year).

Not unlike Disney/Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy, Fox's phenomenal (and consistently viral) Deadpool ad campaign over the last few months has turned a largely unknown character (outside of fans) into an instant mega success. Despite no serious built-in franchise event-level appeal, plus its R rating, the film's first day stands as the 24th highest in history. It even surpassed Guardians itself ($37.9 million opening day), and every Marvel movie -- from any studio -- not named Avengers, Spider-Man, or Iron Man. Those franchises (five films between them) plus the final two Dark Knight films stand as the only "comic book" adaptations to claim higher opening days than Deadpool. In other words, and in a fantastic moment of irony, it topped the openings days of every X-Men film (The Last Stand's $45.1 million being the highest).

Adding to all of this is the fact that word of mouth is stellar. Some natural drop-off will occur due to the immense upfront fan demand, but with very impressive 96 percent Flixster and 84 percent Rotten Tomatoes scores as of this morning, the pic could play very well beyond this Valentine's/President's Day weekend.

The calendar makes projections trickier than usual at this point, particularly because Valentine's Day date crowds will sway the market on Sunday. This is the kind of film that could take a hit from that, but it's also showing signs of crossing over into being a date night movie itself. We'll have further analysis on Deadpool's debut and numerous records in the days ahead as it gets a chance to play out. For now, BoxOffice projects a colossal and record-smashing $114 million three-day opening weekend and $127 million for the four-day holiday frame.

MGM/New Line's How to Be Single bowed with $5.25 million yesterday, surprisingly coming in second place ahead of Zoolander 2. That's a very healthy start for the fairly low-profile rom-com as it aims to benefit from date night crowds this weekend. BoxOffice projects a $20.3 million three-day opening and $22.8 million for the extended frame into Monday.

Speaking of Zoolander 2, the comedy follow-up started with an estimated $4.2 million. The original film's fans had been demanding a sequel for the past decade, but it clearly is being overshadowed by Deadpool buzz. Reviews (22 percent) and word of mouth (38 percent) appear to be heading in the wrong direction, unfortunately, which leads to our current three-day and four-day projections of $13.6 million and $15.5 million, respectively.

Kung Fu Panda 3 tacked on another $3.88 million on Friday for a new tally of $78.1 million. Look for an $18.2 million three-day weekend and $24 million over the four-day.

Meanwhile, The Revenant and Star Wars: The Force Awakens continued to hold their own despite a wave of new competition. The former posted $1.3 million yesterday for a new total of $153.6 million stateside, while the all-time domestic record champ added $1.2 million for a new haul of $909.85 million. Our weekend projections for those and the remainder of the top ten can be found below (ranked by four-day estimates). We'll update with weekend estimates from the studios on Sunday morning.

Rank / Title / 3-Day Estimate / 4-Day Estimate

1. Deadpool ($114 million 3-day / $127 million 4-day)
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 ($18.2 million / $24.0 million)
3. How to Be Single ($20.3 million / $22.8 million)
4. Zoolander 2 ($13.6 million / $15.5 million)
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($6.2 million / $7.6 million)
6. The Revenant ($6.5 million / $7.5 million)
7. Hail, Caesar! ($6.45 million / $7.3 million)
8. The Choice ($5.1 million / $6.0 million)
9. Ride Along 2 ($3.9 million / $4.5 million)
10. The Boy ($3.2 million / $3.7 million)
11. The Finest Hours ($2.8 million / $3.5 million)
12. The 5th Wave ($2.5 million / $3.0 million)
13. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies ($2.2 million / $2.6 million)
14. Dirty Grandpa ($2.0 million / $2.3 million)
15. 13 Hours ($1.6 million / $1.9 million)

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Friday Update: Multiple sources report that Deadpool gunned down an excellent $12.7 million from Thursday night's opening shows, taking down the all-time R-rated record of $10.4 million from The Hangover Part II and the overall February record of $8.6 million by last year's Fifty Shades of Grey.

Following an extensively viral ad campaign that dominated social media since last summer, last night's debut impressively bested numerous superhero adaptations as well -- namely Guardians of the Galaxy ($11.2 million), fellow in-universe title X-Men: Days of Future Past ($8.1 million), and Ant-Man ($6.4 million). It's no wonder Fox greenlit a sequel earlier this week given the very strong word of mouth coming out of last night's first shows.

Among last night's earnings were $2.3 million from IMAX alone, the best ever posted by an IMAX title in February, and sixth highest of all-time (more than Furious 7).

Weekend projections are more challenging than usual given the landing of Valentine's Day on Sunday and President's Day on Monday, but given the strong reception so far we're inclined to believe Thursday front-loading won't be abnormally severe. The top five R-rated weekends of all-time (Friday through Sunday) belong to films that earned over $83.8 million -- with the top two being The Matrix Reloaded's $91.8 million and American Sniper's $89.3 million. Those are also close to the proximity of Guardians' $94.3 million opening weekend and Days of Future Past's $90.8 million three-day start. Even though Deadpool's Sunday may be deflated by date night crowds, it may have enough lead-in already to get close to those figures.

For the four-day, last year's Fifty Shades of Grey set a new President's Day frame record with $93.0 million. Deadpool has a great shot at topping that, and could be looking upward of $100 million+ by the end of the extended weekend if everything goes its way. Either way, coupled with a fantastic overseas start as well, this is a massive success already for Fox, Ryan Reynolds, and co.

Also debuting last night was Zoolander 2, which posted a more modest $750,000 from early shows. By comparison, Anchorman: The Legend Continues did $2.3 million from its early show opening, although that film opened one week before Christmas when many were out of school and work for the holidays.

Lastly, How to Be Single posted $700,000 last night, a solid total that indicates some potential to upset Zoolander 2 for second place among this weekend's openers. That figure topped About Last Night's $530,000 Thursday night start one day before Valentine's in 2014.

We'll have further analysis and our weekend estimates on Saturday morning once the studios release official Friday estimates.

 

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By Alex Edghill

Friday Morning Update: With Deadpool now having opened (to a record breaking midnight tally no less) that leaves the upcoming film market wide open for the taking in terms of Twitter honors. Star Wars: The Force Awakens and then Deadpool were so very dominant over the last 6 months+, in fact one of those two films led the weekly tweets totals 22 out of the last 26 weeks. Needless to say that after that unprecedented run atop the leaderboards its somewhat of a relief to be able to write about something else. Emerging from the shadows this week were the plethora of sequels on the slate over the next few months led by X-Men: Apocalypse which has quietly been generating a lot of interest over the last few weeks. The best comparison here is X-Men: Days Of Future Past which opened on the same weekend in May 2 years ago. For the two weeks leading up to Valentines Day Future Past had accumulated 12,698 tweets, fast forward to this year and Apocalypse has generated 225,942 tweets. That's twenty times the amount of buzz. It is true that its Super Bowl spot gave it a massive shot in the arm (it got 50,000 tweets on Super Bowl Sunday alone), but even for the week prior it was routinely pulling in over 10,000 tweets a day. Clearly the marketing campaign is in full swing here and doing great things for its awareness online. Outside of trailer bumps from other comic sequels this Summer it has consistently been the most talked about of the lot in 2016 so far which is likely telling for box office fortunes as well.

Finding Dory has been largely quiet this year, taking a back seat to The Secret Life Of Pets for the most part in the Summer animated race but this past week it ramped up its game thanks to the release of new posters to the film which generated a surprising amount of buzz. Widely regarded as a contender for one of the top films of the Summer this recent uptick is promising to see. Considering that the largest tweet day for Pets was 4,388 and Dory managed to nab 18,985 tweets. Dory is undoubtedly the cream of the crop for animated films on the year based on these types of returns.

Jason Bourne went from not having an official title and being largely anonymous a week ago to being in the weekly top 10 with the second largest percentage gain. Its tough to draw comparisons from this far out so I'll reserve them for now but I will say that this is a film that doesn't have to be on top of Twitter to dominate the box office since it will do very well with older audiences.

Lastly, Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates did surprisingly well on the heels of its first trailer as it accounted for 18,497 tweets on Tuesday, putting it on the map for many Twitter users and giving it the largest percentage jump in recent memory. Zach Efron's last film Dirty Grandpa saw only 3,623 tweets on the debut of its first trailer last October so this is an excellent start for the film.

Twitter Top 10 Movies for the week of February 5th to February 11th

Date Movie Tweets Rank Change
5/27/16 X-Men: Apocalypse 150,126 1 (+2) 98.01%
5/06/16 Captain America: Civil War 94,817 2 (+6) 175.73%
3/25/16 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 92,249 3 (+4) 166.38%
8/05/16 Suicide Squad 51,459 4 (-) -8.65%
6/17/16 Finding Dory 39,454 5 (+19) 590.12%
7/15/16 Ghostbusters (2016) 35,070 6 (-1) -7.44%
7/29/16 Jason Bourne 32,331 7 (+97) 2131.26%
7/08/16 Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates 31,238 8 (+85) 51963.33%
3/04/16 Zootopia 29,769 9 (-) 12.50%
4/15/16 The Jungle Book (2016) 24,702 10 (+21) 725.88%

Subscribe to BoxOffice for more social media insights/coverage.

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

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Fox International has released early international numbers from several overseas markets totaling $12 million. These include:

UK/Ireland ($3.4M)

 

  • Biggest Fox opening day ever for 15-rated movie
  • 2nd highest grossing IMAX Wednesday opening ever behind Spectre
Australia ($2.1M)
  • 75% market share on Thursday
  • Biggest Febuary release of all-time
  • 7% bigger than Jurassic World's opening day
France ($1.8M), Taiwan ($1.4M), Hong Kong ($650K), Philippines ($357K), Belgium ($270K), and Singapore ($205K).
Complete international numbers for Deadpool's opening weekend will be released Sunday morning.

 

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By Daniel Garris

Kung Fu Panda 3 led the daily box office for one last day on Thursday with a daily take of $1.02 million. The 3D computer animated sequel from Fox and DreamWorks Animation was up 10 percent from Wednesday and down just 23 percent from last Thursday. Kung Fu Panda 3 was the week's top film with a weekly haul of $26.21 million. That represented a 45.5 percent decline from the previous frame and brings the film's two-week total to $74.26 million. Kung Fu Panda 3 will obviously fall out of first place today with the launch of fellow Fox release Deadpool; which grossed an estimated $12.7 million from Thursday night shows (that will be counted towards Friday's opening day performance).

Universal's Hail, Caesar! held steady in second place with $0.673 million. The Coen Brothers directed film featuring Josh Brolin and George Clooney was down a sharp 12 percent from Wednesday, as the late night launch of Deadpool clearly took a toll on holdovers aimed at adult moviegoers yesterday. Hail, Caesar! placed in second for the week with a seven-day start of $14.76 million. While Hail, Caesar! has performed in line with expectations so far, the film is also displaying early signs of being relatively front-loaded for a Coen Brothers film.

Disney's Star Wars: The Force Awakens was up one spot from Wednesday to move into third on Thursday with $0.585 million. The seventh chapter of the Star Wars franchise was down 7 percent from Wednesday and down 27 percent from last Thursday. The Force Awakens took fourth place this week with $9.57 million. That was down just 34 percent from the previous week and brings the film's eight-week total to a record breaking $908.64 million.

Fox's The Revenant followed closely behind in fourth with $0.577 million. The Alejandro González Iñárritu directed western starring Leonardo DiCaprio fell 9 percent from Wednesday and 38 percent from last Thursday. The Revenant placed in third this week with $9.66 million. The film was down 43 percent from the previous frame and has grossed an impressive $152.26 million through five weeks of wide release (and an additional two weeks of platform release).

Lionsgate's The Choice and Sony's Pride and Prejudice and Zombies rounded out their disappointing first week performances with respective fifth and seventh place takes of $446,522 and $283,226. The Choice was up a healthy 6 percent over Wednesday, while Pride and Prejudice and Zombies was down a troubling 19 percent. The Choice placed in fifth place this week with a soft $8.01 million, while Pride and Prejudice and Zombies was even softer with a sixth place take of $6.89 million.

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Thursday Update: MovieTickets.com is also reporting strong advance sales for Deadpool. Their announcement:

According to MovieTickets.com, domestic box office advance ticket sales for "Deadpool" currently tops the list accounting for 66% of all tickets sold by the company in the last 24 hours. Of those tickets, over 20% are for moviegoers who are purchasing tickets to see the film on an IMAX and/or premium large format screen.

"How to be Single" is next up at 6% of all tickets sold in the last 24 hours followed by "Zoolander 2" coming in at 4%.

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Wednesday: Fandango's official press release on Deadpool:

LOS ANGELES - February 10, 2016 - "Deadpool" is killing it at the top of Fandango's Fanticipation movie buzz indicator with an indestructible 93 out of 100 points. The highly-anticipated R-rated superhero movie has been the #1 film in Fandango's daily sales for the last two weeks and is outselling last year's superhero debut movie, "Ant-Man," at the same point in the sales cycle.

"Moviegoers will be flocking to theaters this weekend for ‘Deadpool,' which is garnering strong buzz for its unique blend of edgy comedy and over-the-top violent action," says Fandango Correspondent Dave Karger. "The fans are looking forward to Ryan Reynolds suiting up for off-the-wall humor unlike anything they've seen in previous superhero movies."

Fandango surveyed more 1,000 "Deadpool" ticket-buyers and found that:
96% say the movie is part of their holiday weekend plans;
93% are excited to see a Marvel Comics superhero movie that is rated R;
92% are particularly excited about the casting of Ryan Reynold as Deadpool;
80% would like to see Deadpool in a crossover "X-Men" movie;
76% say Deadpool's sense of humor is his most winning attribute;
69% are fans of Deadpool comics and/or video games;
60% already plan to see it more than once;
59% plan to see the movie with a friend or group of friends; 41% plan to see "Deadpool" with a date or significant other.

About Fanticipation
Known for having its finger on the pulse of moviegoers, Fandango's movie buzz indicator, Fanticipation, provides statistical insight into the movies fans are planning to see in a given weekend. Fanticipation scores (based on a 1 to 100-point scale) are calculated via an algorithm of Fandango's advance ticket sales, website and mobile traffic, and social media engagement. Fanticipation is not intended as a forecast of the weekend box office; it is a snapshot of movie fan sentiment. Fandango is the nation's leading digital destination for moviegoers and fans with more than 42 million unique visitors per month.*

*According to comScore.

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