'Avengers: Age of Ultron' Registers the Second Largest Debut of All-Time with $187.7M; Fails to Match Its Predecessor After Sharp Saturday DeclineMay 03, 2015 08:53 AM

by Daniel Garris

Disney's Avengers: Age of Ultron debuted with an estimated $187.66 million this weekend. While that represented the second largest opening weekend performance of all-time, it also represented a notably softer debut than had been widely expected for the film (especially after its relatively strong Thursday night launch). Instead of surpassing the $207.44 million debut of 2012's Marvel's The Avengers, Avengers: Age of Ultron had to settle for opening in between The Avengers and the $174.14 million debut of 2013's Iron Man 3. Avengers: Age of Ultron opened 9.5 percent below The Avengers and 8 percent ahead of Iron Man 3.

That Avengers: Age of Ultron is on course to ultimately gross less domestically than The Avengers isn't a surprise. But it's opening weekend performance being softer than that of its predecessor is a surprise, in part from the fact that Avengers: Age of Ultron will in all likelihood be more front-loaded than The Avengers was, perhaps significantly so.

It should be mentioned that Saturday's performance appears to have taken a clear hit from the much hyped about and long awaited Mayweather vs. Pacquiao boxing match. Game 7 of the Los Angeles Clippers vs San Antonio Spurs NBA Playoffs series and the Kentucky Derby likely also helped take a toll on Saturday's performance as well.

Avengers: Age of Ultron took in $84.46 million on Friday (which included an estimated $27.6 million from Thursday evening shows), declined a very sharp 32 percent on Saturday to gross $57.22 million and is estimated to fall 20 percent on Sunday to gross $45.98 million. That places the film's estimated opening weekend to Friday ratio at 2.22 to 1. That is significantly more front-loaded than the 2.57 to 1 ratio of The Avengers and the 2.53 to 1 ratio of Iron Man 3.

In addition to Saturday's performance being affected by the mentioned sporting events, the early front-loading for Avengers: Age of Ultron suggests that die-hard fans of the Marvel Cinematic Universe were much more excited about the film than more casual fans of the series were. It is quite possible that Furious 7 having gone over so well with moviegoers in April helped downplay anticipation a bit for Avengers: Age of Ultron with more casual fans (similarly, that appeared to happen this weekend last year when potential for The Amazing Spider-Man 2 was softened a bit by the strong audience reaction to Captain America: The Winter Soldier.)

There is hope that Avengers: Age of Ultron could rebound from its early front-loading going forward, thanks in part to a strong initial audience reaction of its own. Avengers: Age of Ultron received an A rating on CinemaScore and its early audience score among Rotten Tomatoes users stands at a very strong 90 percent. On the other hand, Avengers: Age of Ultron will face tougher initial competition throughout May than The Avengers did back in 2012, at least on paper, from the combination of Universal's Pitch Perfect 2, Warner's Max Max: Fury Road, fellow Disney release Tomorrowland and to a lesser extent from Fox's Poltergeist and Warner's Hot Pursuit.

The audience breakdown for Avengers: Age of Ultron skewed towards male moviegoers (59 percent) and towards moviegoers over the age of 25 (59 percent). Family audiences represented 22 percent of the film's overall audience. Avengers: Age of Ultron grossed an estimated $18.0 million from IMAX locations, which represented 9.6 percent of the film's overall gross.

Moving past the absolute market dominance of Avengers: Age of Ultron this weekend, it was a close three-way race for second place between Lionsgate's The Age of Adaline, Universal's Furious 7 and Sony's Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2. Estimates are close enough that the three films could still change positions when actuals are released on Monday.

The Age of Adaline placed in second with an estimated $6.25 million. While the romantic drama starring Blake Lively was down a significant 53 percent from last weekend's debut, it also experienced one of the weekend's stronger percentage holds. The Age of Adaline has grossed $23.42 million in ten days. That is on the high end of pre-release expectations and places the film just below the recent $23.68 million ten-day start of The Longest Ride (which fell 46 percent in its second weekend to gross $7.02 million). With aid from Mother's Day next weekend, The Age of Adaline should experience a stronger third weekend hold than The Longest Ride did.

After leading the box office for each of the past four weekends, Furious 7 fell to third place this weekend with an estimated $6.1 million. The seventh installment of Universal's blockbuster action franchise was down a very sharp 66 percent, which was understandable given the debut of Avengers: Age of Ultron and that Saturday's sports events took a toll on the marketplace in general. Furious 7 has grossed a massive $330.52 million through 31 days of release. That places the film an extremely impressive 45 percent ahead of the $228.62 million 31-day take of 2013's Fast & Furious 6.

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 claimed fourth place with an estimated $5.55 million. The modestly budgeted Kevin James led comedy sequel fell a sharp 62 percent from last weekend. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 has grossed $51.19 million in 17 days. The film continues to run in line with expectations and is running 13.5 percent behind the $59.21 million 17-day take of 2011's Zookeeper.

Daily Domestic Gross Tue, Mar. 22 2011

Wide (1000+)

#TitleTue, Mar. 22 2011LocationsAvg.TotalWks.Dist.
1Limitless$2,035,1587%2,756--$738$22,844,5771Relativity Media
2The Lincoln Lawyer$1,388,45916%2,707--$513$15,795,8951Lionsgate
3Battle: Los Angeles$1,221,5401%3,4170$357$62,976,6472Sony / Columbia
6Red Riding Hood$618,40913%3,0300$204$27,062,2982Warner Bros.
7The Adjustment Bureau$571,42516%2,660-187$215$49,683,0753Universal
8Mars Needs Moms$402,2165%3,1170$129$16,185,0152Disney
9Hall Pass$288,3868%1,905-650$151$40,112,8094Warner Bros. / New Line
10Beastly$272,96920%1,810-149$151$22,684,1233CBS Films
11The King's Speech$215,0448%1,249-519$172$132,889,89017Weinstein Company
12Just Go With It$207,08512%1,708-690$121$98,355,7266Sony / Columbia
13Gnomeo and Juliet$188,323-3%1,748-837$108$93,969,1086Disney
14Unknown (2011)$139,31918%1,401-902$99$61,352,6255Warner Bros.

Limited (100 — 999)

#TitleTue, Mar. 22 2011LocationsAvg.TotalWks.Dist.
1I Am Number Four$98,00610%955-1050$103$52,804,2105Disney / DreamWorks
2Cedar Rapids$64,48213%46268$140$5,596,6996Fox Searchlight
3Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son$41,95911%550-381$76$36,487,3625Fox
4Yogi Bear$37,56416%43834$86$99,485,27514Warner Bros.
5Justin Bieber: Never Say Never$31,758-11%480-767$66$72,276,9286Paramount
6Black Swan$25,31718%191-146$133$106,350,37016Fox Searchlight
7True Grit (2010)$25,2629%268-133$94$169,828,98413Paramount
8The Fighter$25,13614%316-147$80$93,414,72215Paramount
9No Strings Attached$22,87417%232-22$99$70,300,1419Paramount
10Take Me Home Tonight$16,603-6%281-1722$59$6,739,0933Relativity Media
11The Rite$13,36612%202117$66$32,883,4908Warner Bros. / New Line

Platform (1 — 99)

#TitleTue, Mar. 22 2011LocationsAvg.TotalWks.Dist.
1Jane Eyre (2011)$48,6664%2622$1,872$814,9322Focus
2Hubble 3D$30,1819%490$616$22,895,26953Warner Bros. / IMAX
3Biutiful$14,50942%88-26$165$4,725,98412Roadside Attractions
4I Love You Phillip Morris$14,50942%11-1$1,319$1,978,41816Roadside Attractions
5Kill the Irishman$13,2246%2116$630$358,2822Anchor Bay Films
6Win Win$13,016-9%5--$2,603$177,6981Fox Searchlight
7Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1$7,571-5%94-28$81$294,840,89018Warner Bros.
8The Mechanic$7,277-2%9957$74$29,013,1028CBS Films
9Blue Valentine (2010)$6,68742%43-17$156$9,587,94412Weinstein Company
10The Eagle$6,53921%92-7$71$19,377,4766Focus
11The Music Never Stopped$6,48810%32--$203$88,9261Roadside Attractions
12The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader$5,6578%82-41$69$104,236,21615Fox
13Drive Angry$5,15835%95-456$54$10,519,8204Summit
14The Company Men$4,59016%58-5$79$4,219,4109Weinstein Company
15Rabbit Hole$2,69736%29-9$93$2,189,88014Lionsgate
16Gulliver's Travels (2010)$2,3514%43-56$55$42,709,85213Fox
17127 Hours$2,257-2%32-47$71$18,287,45120Fox Searchlight
18happythankyoumoreplease$2,206-20%12-7$184$142,5093Anchor Bay Films
19Nostalgia for the Light$1,339-16%1--$1,339$13,6051Icarus Films
20Season of the Witch$837-31%31-23$27$24,825,32611Relativity Media
21From Prada to Nada$812-10%27-6$30$2,973,1238Lionsgate / Pantelion
22Vidal Sassoon: The Movie$626-6%50$125$82,5036Phase 4 Films